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Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same? Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same? The US Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range as anticipated. Notably, Fed Chair Powell, in the press conference, expressed that while the central bank remains vigilant about inflation risks, a hike is "unlikely" for the next move. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) echo a similar stance when it announces its interest rate decision next week? Although there were hopeful indications that inflation in Australia was trending in the right direction, these were dashed recently by a stronger-than-expected reading for the March quarter. With hopes for a rate cut dashed, speculation now centers around the possibility of another increase before 2024 concludes. Bloomberg reports a shift in expectations from rate cuts to a potential rise by year-end. Market sentiment has transitioned from a 70% likelihood of an interest rate cut in August to a 50% probability of a 0.25% rate hike, which is a huge shift in sentiment. If indeed an interest rate hike materializes, it would place Australia in stark contrast to other central banks. Presently, the RBA's cash rate stands at 4.35%. None of the major four banks anticipate the RBA's next move to be an increase, with all still projecting a rate cut by Christmas. However, these forecasts remain subject to change in the lead-up to the RBA's decision.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD Potential Short Opportunity Bearish Bat Harmonic PatternThe AUDUSD pair is currently exhibiting a potential Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) formation, coupled with its proximity to a significant resistance level. This suggests a possible reversal in trend momentum, with bearish indications expected to strengthen from Point D onwards. Harmonic Pattern Analysis: The Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) is emerging on the AUDUSD chart, indicating a potential reversal of the current uptrend. The completion point (Point D) of this pattern aligns closely with the key resistance level, adding further confluence to the bearish scenario. Entry and Stop Loss: We recommend taking a short position at 0.65200, anticipating the reversal from Point D. A stop loss should be placed at 0.65900 to mitigate potential losses in case of a breakout above the resistance level. Take Profit Targets: TP-1: 0.64520 TP-2: 0.63820 TP-3: 0.63128 Rationale: The decision to enter a short position is supported by the confluence of the Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern and the key resistance level. This setup suggests a high probability of a bearish reversal, with potential downside targets identified at various support levels. Risk Management: It's crucial to adhere to proper risk management principles when executing this trade. By maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing and adhering to the specified stop loss level, traders can effectively manage their risk exposure. Conclusion: Based on the technical analysis, a short position on AUDUSD is recommended, with entry at 0.65200 and a stop loss at 0.65900. Take profit targets are set at 0.64520, 0.63820, and 0.63128. This analysis aims to capitalize on the anticipated bearish momentum following the completion of the Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern and the resistance level confluence.
Short
by MZ_FX_
2
AUDUSD - Shark Harmonic Pattern Formation Detected-Bearish TrendAUDUSD is currently forming a Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) on the 4-hour time frame. This pattern is characterized by specific Fibonacci ratios between the price swings. The completion point, Point D, coincides with a key Resistance level, indicating a potential reversal. Trendline Analysis: In addition to the harmonic pattern, there is a significant Trendline acting as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting the bearish outlook. Entry and Stop Loss: Based on the analysis, a prudent entry point is identified at 0.64800, just below Point D. To manage risk, a stop loss is recommended at 0.65350, above the recent swing high and the pattern completion point. Take Profit Targets: Three take profit targets are set to capitalize on potential downward movement: TP-1: 0.64270 TP-2: 0.63740 TP-3: 0.63200 Risk Management: The risk-to-reward ratio for this trade is carefully considered to ensure favorable risk management. The potential profit targets offer a balanced reward relative to the risk taken with the stop loss. Conclusion: With the Shark Harmonic Pattern formation, along with the confluence of the Trendline and key Resistance level, the technical analysis suggests a bearish momentum in AUDUSD. Traders may consider entering short positions with the specified entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, keeping risk management principles in mind.
Short
by MZ_FX_
3
Bought the dip in AUD/USD, did you buy too ?Hello traders, on account of US Dollar demand across the board due to news about the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, AUD/USD fell quite rapidly during the Asian Trading session on Friday. However, the price has made a quick recovery since then. AUD, considered a risk asset mostly falls during times of geopolitical tensions and economic crises. . However, I went long in AUD/USD@0.6370 level as I feel markets will recover soon. That being said, the key support level lies at 06270. In case, AUD/USD continues to go up from current levels, the first target for the bulls would be the 100-day EMA level at 0.6540
Long
by KaltoireCapital
8
AUDUSD Long (24/04)Price for AUDUSD may be looking to turn after a week of selling. It has left a wick below, signalling rejection. An order block was drawn, in hope to ride out the sell - however it was broken through, leading to the confirmation of the above. Using the breaker block I’m using the highest recent point for my first take profit and the swing highs as my future take profit points. N.B.: Do your own research do not take my analysis as financial advice. Thank you
Long
by saintprincevvs
3
AUDUSD - Potential sell idea ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on AUDUSD. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to reject from FIBO 0.618 level. Fundamental news: This week on Friday will be released Unemployment Rate on AUD, news with high impact on currency. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
2
AUDUSD: The dollar headed for a second weekly gain amid interestThe US dollar is on track to gain for a second straight week today, underpinned by a strong US economy that has changed expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The greenback's 0.17% gain for the week was tempered after Thursday's warning message from financial leaders in the US, Japan and South Korea regarding the weakness of the Japanese yen and won by South Korea, suggesting the possibility of coordinated intervention. Asian currencies have been hit particularly hard by a stronger dollar. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted the importance of the joint statement and acknowledged the growing possibility of Asian foreign exchange intervention. However, Kong expressed uncertainty about US involvement, arguing that a stronger dollar would h
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
AUD/USD key S/R levels, +160 Pips potentialHello traders, I hope you had great profits by selling AUD/USD last week. In my previous AUD/USD idea, I recommended selling AUDUSD@0.6620 zone, that call generated over 180 pips profit. Currently, AUD/USD has bounced off the support zone by almost 30 pips. This makes me wonder, if there is a potential long entry here. So, if the support level that I had indicated in my chart holds, I would recommend traders to buy AUDUSD@0.6450-0.6475 with stop loss below the support zone and TPs at 0.6542 and 0.6642.
Long
by KaltoireCapital
5