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AUDUSD analysis: MACD bullish crossoverThe latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, which opened the door to more interest rate hikes, may provide only marginal support to the Australian dollar when compared to the US dollar ( AUD/USD ). Stronger global economic growth, a Chinese industrial recovery, more risk appetite among investors, and widespread gains in commodity prices are required for the Australian dollar to thrive. These factors would strongly reverse the Aussie’s trajectory, pushing the AUD/USD comfortably back above 0.70. Therefore, for the time being, the RBA’s pledge serves to provide a floor, thus containing the potential downside risk of the AUD/USD pair, since the Fed is likewise convinced of rising interest rates forcefully. AUD/USD technical analysis Technically speaking, we are starting to notice positive indications from a short-term viewpoint. The momentum is rising on the daily chart, with the 14-day RSI climbing from 37 to 48. Breaking 50 would mean bulls might overtake bears in the near-term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator produced a bullish crossover signal yesterday, as the MACD line (blue line) passed from below to above the signal line (orange). Four of the six MACD crossovers that had occurred in 2022, then provided the right signal. The 0.6875 level, which corresponds to the highs reached on July 8th, is the barrier that has to be broken in the very short term. Breaking this level might boost bulls’ convictions to target the 50-day moving average at 0.697. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
AUD/USD forms double bottom: 0.727 in sight? The AUD/USD daily chart formed a double bottom at 0.685 last week, a level reached by the pair in mid-May before rebounding to 0.727. A double bottom is a chart pattern that consists of two pretty equal lows separated by a tiny peak that creates a 'neckline.' It often occurs near the end of a downward trend and may foreshadow a positive reversal. The last time a double bottom happened was in December 2021, after which the AUD/USD pair rallied 10% to its peak on January 5th. This might potentially lead to a fresh advance to the 0.727 neckline, which, if broken, would confirm a bullish trend reversal. The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, stated this morning that more hikes are likely in the coming months after raising its main rate from 0.35% to 0.85% on June 7, exceeding market expectations of a smaller move. Inflation in Australia is expected to peak at 7% by the end of the year, according to the latest RBA's projections.
by Capitalcom