Have Sellers Taken Back Control? Before the market opened I analyzed a short term buying opportunity on AUDUSD. However, this morning , a lower low was created at 0.72435 on the 4-hour timeframe.
This signals an early sign of a reversal on this specific timeframe. I have to change my buy bias to a sell bias. Today, I will be observing if price can stay below 0.72775. If so, I will sell from my estimation zone 0.72670 back down to 0.72396 only if price can retrace to my zone first and price action gives me permission to enter the trade.
Previous analysis is linked.
Audusdsell
AUDUSD: Supply TrapMany traders would have positioned themselves in sells too early when the equal highs formed, forgetting that the major supply was sitting above them.
Now that we have had the liquidity sweep, it may be time to see the bears take control of the market.
Where do you think the sells will take the price?
AUDUSD -Bearish Cycle!AUDUSD the pair is almost ready for downside, we are now completing the last of the 3 wave (ABC in the green minuette degree) corrective move we called for at the end of November 2021 in 5 waves. We had expected the pair to bounce to about 0.7300 which from the looks of it we should reach. As long as we don't go beyond the Bluebox (price level 0.7400) then we should see a reversal within the Bluebox for downside to about 0.6700.
Look for Sell opportunities at the bluebox!
AUDUSD Short term upside!AUDUSD is completing the last leg of a 3 wave correction in the minuette purple degree, we called at the end of November 2021. The correction should take AUDUSD higher to about 0.73200, that is if we do not get a short leg (c) which can terminate at about 0.7250 (61.8% extension). At 0.73200 we should start looking to sell the AUDUSD for mid-term downside which should see the pair breaking well below the 3rd December 2021 low of 0.699, taking the pair as low as the 0.6700 areas.
AUDUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
More upside to come for AUDUSD before range bound.THe aussie dollar saw a rebound this week and it looks like there will be more upside in the weeks to come. Early next week, we may see a short downward retrace to 0.706 before upside comes. I think this will coincide with Jerome Powell's announcement of the taper plans. Our price target to exit the long trade is 0.73
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Sell-Off to Accelerate Ahead of RBABearish View
Sell the AUD/USD ahead of the RBA decision.
Add a take-profit at 0.6950 and a stop-loss at 0.7050.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
Set a buy-stop at 0.7030 and a take-profit at 0.7100.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6050.
The AUD/USD pair crashed to the lowest level since July 2020 as investors wait for the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The pair also dropped sharply after the latest US jobs data.
AUD/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a sharp bearish trend in the past few weeks. The sell-off accelerated when the pair dropped below the key support at 0.7170, which was the lowest level in September. The pair has also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.
Therefore, there is a possibility that the bearish trend will continue ahead of the RBA decision. The drop will likely be saved by a relatively hawkish RBA statement.
RBA Decision
The AUD/USD declined after Australia confirmed the community spread of Omicron, the latest variant of COVID-19. In a statement during the weekend, the country’s health ministry confirmed that 5 people had contracted the new variant in Sydney. There are worries that more people will continue to contract the illness.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that this variant will have an impact on the RBA, which started its meeting today. Before the Omicron variant, most analysts were expecting that the RBA will tweak its statement about when it will start hiking interest rates. In the previous meetings, the bank insisted that it will hike interest rates in 2024.
Therefore, the next key catalyst for the AUD/USD will be the RBA statement on interest rates even as the government comes up with solutions on the virus. It is unclear whether the Australian government will impose new lockdowns to curb the new spread.
The uncertainty of the RBA comes at a time when the Federal Reserve has hinted that it will start embracing a more hawkish policy. In a statement last week, the Fed Chair confirmed that the bank will unwind its $100+ billion quantitative easing policy earlier than expected. Powell also noted that the current variant will likely lead to higher inflation in the country.
He also warned that the variant will affect job creation. Data published on Friday showed that the US economy is seeing slow job growth. The economy added more than 240k jobs in November, lower than the expected 500k+.
AUDUSD: Manipulation ZonePrice is pushing into the hourly supply and it is slowing down.
We may see some sellers try and break the bullish trend line that has been respected on the way up.
I think a fake breakout to the downside will occur before we push up again after filling imbalances.
What are your thoughts?