AUDUSD: Top of Megaphone hit. Reversal expected.AUDUSD is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.054, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 53.204) as the price reached the HH trendline at the top of the Megaphone pattern. The 1D MACD printed a sequence almost identical to the December 28th 2023 top, which soon after declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we take this as a strong sell signal, aiming at the 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66500).
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AUDUSD: Wait to buy this dip.AUDUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.176, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 34.265) as it entered a Channel Down similar to those of August - October 2023 and April - May 2023. That is why we are expecting a bullish reveral the closer we get to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As long as the 1D RSI doesn't break into the oversold zone (<30.000), we will buy that dip and target the LH trendline (TP = 0.6700).
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AUDUSD: Classic Bullish Patterns 🇦🇺🇺🇸
I see 2 bullish price action patterns on AUDUSD.
On a daily time frame, the price broke and closed above
a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
On a 1h time frame, the market violated a neckline
of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
I think that the pair may keep growing.
Next resistance - 0.6588
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AUDUSD: Sustainable bearish trend.AUDUSD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for the majority of 2024 so far and the neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.127, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 26.175) suggests that this is a potential sell entry. The price is below the 1D MA50 and exactly on the 1D MA200, where a rejection, validates the preservation of the bearish trend. If the price stays under it, we will remain bearish, targeting near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.64000).
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AUDUSD: Rejection at the top of the Channel Down.AUDUSD is almost neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 55.106, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 28.280) as it has started to decline again after the rejection on the 0.618 Fibonacci level near the top of the twelve month Channel Down. The 1D RSI got overbought at the top just like on the June 15th LH (also on the 0.618 Fibonacci), which was the previous most optimal short opportunity. We are going short on this pair again, targeting the S2 level (TP = 0.61725), which is near the bottom of the Channel Down as awell as the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (as was the October 3rd low).
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AUDUSD: This bounce is a good short opportunity.AUDUSD rebounded late last week and reached again the 1D MA50 on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 46.104, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 23.912). This is the first rebound after the June 16th High, which was on an overbought 1D RSI and formed a Lower High inside the wide Channel Down pattern. The neutral technicals indicate that this is potentially the ideal short entry on an extended sell sequence that targets at least the bottom of the Channel Down.
We are going short on the next green 1D candle and our target will be much lower, the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 0.63350). Buy again near the RSI oversold line.
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AUDUSD: Approaching the Channel Down bottom.AUDUSD is on a strong 2 day sell streak below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 but is approaching the bottom/ LL trendline of the six month Channel Down. The 1D time frame is technically bearish (RSI = 36.760, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 28.005) and the closer the 1D RSi gets to being oversold (30.000) the stronger the buy signal on the long term becomes.
As long as the 1D candles close inside the Channel Down, we are buying this weakness, targeting R1 initially (TP1 = 0.6800) and if we get a closing over it as well, then re-buy and target the top of the Channel Down (TP2 = 0.7000).
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AUDUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
AUDJPY top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURAUD and the risk on and off playHere is another Forex Trading Snack.
To go along with my stock risk on or off trading view, here is my favorite Forex pair that matches closely to my stock trading view. Of corse the two instruments trade inversely to each other.
My main strategy for this weeks market open is to follow the recent up channel the pair has been trading in. The downside has been limited mostly due to the upside limited moves to AUDUSD ( which also moves along with the S&P 500 and or news events or risks involving China trade.
Stocks and the AUDUSD have stoped recent moves higher at the 61.8 Fib levels and have been grinding around making overlapping moves with lower highs and lower lows. Hardly a trending move. Very much a grinding around moving market.
Looking at the 2H chart I see a smaller EW 5 wave pattern Developing with a posable completion at up channel trend line.
My strategy isn’t to try to trade short at channel trend top, but to start looking at my longer view possibilities of the next move and posable breakout from this channel. There is no surprise that the AUDUSD also has a inverse EW pattern on the same time frame. On AUDUSD I’m a sell the rallies trader currently just as I am on the S&P 500. The exact opposite on EURAUD.
Just one traders opinion. Please form your own opinions and trading views and or strategies. This post isn’t advice on trading. Trade accordingly to your own risk tolerances.
In trading you either make dust or you will certainly eat dust.
All the best in your trading.