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Aurora

ACB - Looking at the bigger PictureDear Traders, This TA is strictly meant for swing traders. Looking at the weekly chart of ACB, we can see that the bears are in control. Price action is very close to a critical point in my opinion. If the bulls fail to support at the 100 moving average located at 5.22$, we could see a drop to the next support located at 4.07$, and if that one doesn't hold, then we could see a huge drop back around 2.65$. In my opinion, the hype around Aurora is over, there might be some serious selling if they don't release some good news. With the negative vibe hanging in Canada about shortages... If the bulls manage to run up above 7.41$ then we could see a whole different scenario. Let's see what will happen the next weeks. Keep your eyes on the charts! If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA! If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it! Take care!
AShort
by Raw_Blitz
TGOD - BREAK UP or DOWNDear Traders, Let's have a look at TGOD. Price dropped like a dead mouse before, but TGOD did create a nice bounce which I predicted in my previous TGOD TA. Now the question is will it create another run, or will it drop to a lower low. Looking at the chart and the indicators there is more reason for it to drop then to break out if i'm being really honest here. RSI shows bears are in control, so does the MACD Histogram. Price action should break above 3.71C$ in order to show that the bulls have taken over power. However, if the bulls can't maintain to support at 2.98C$, then we will see another drop to around 2.84C$ and if that doesn't hold, 2.45C$. Let's see how this will playout on Monday. Really good news would enable the bulls to breakout, but without news, and with the sector falling, TGOD might see another drop sooner than expected. Keep your eyes on the charts! If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA! If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it! Take care!
TShort
by Raw_Blitz
ORGANIGRAM - Back to the buy zone?Dear Traders, As we can see on the chart, Organigram's Bears were in control. Bulls did form some kind of Buy Area, located around 5.18C$, the 200 moving average indicator. A comeback into the buy zone wouldn't shock me, just to shake out those last bear hands, and to head up higher? Or will the bulls fail to take control and the price will drop under 5C$? Looking at the chart right now it looks like the bears are still in control. Keep your eyes on the charts! If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA! If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it! Take care!
OShort
by Raw_Blitz
MEDIPHARM - Looking Beatiful!Dear Traders, Medipharm is looking like some sweet honey on a goat cheese cracker! They announced some pretty nice things this month, they obtained their License and the day after they announce a Partnership with Supreme Cannabis! They will make sure Medipharm is equipped with the best High Grade Cannabis you can get to let medipharm create High Grade CBD Oils for the market! Looking at the Daily Chart, We can see that Medipharms shows bullishness! Price action is now located above the main moving averages, so any entry around 1.50 is a pretty good one imo. With a stoploss under the 55 ma (blue line). All Medipharm needs right now is some more vol! This stock could easily hit the million in volume, but it just needs more investors. Let's see how this will playout on Monday. Will we get news again this week? Are more investor going to join? Keep your eyes on the charts! If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA! If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it! Take care!
LLong
by Raw_Blitz
ACB - What's next for Aurora?Dear Traders, ACB has been showing ups and downs the last couple of days. Earnings showed growth but a lot of investors were skeptical and that was seen in the price action. First I'd like to start about the vol indicator on this Chart. It shows a potential Curve, which would mean that we in exactly at the lowest point of the curve, low volume, not a lot of buying power, but not a lot of selling power either. On the chart you see that i've drawn a big green line, that represents the bull's breakout line. if the bulls manage to push it above that line it could create a potential run to a higher resistance point, which, if that was the case, the bulls would have to break the resistance at our 55 day moving average (55 MA) located at 8.86C$, if they succeed, price action would likely go to around 9.25C$ (100 MA) and 10.58C$ after that (200 MA). The other scenario is me thinking about that Curve previously discussed. If we were indeed at the lowest point, that means votality would be low. One thing I do know is that price drops faster than it goes up. So keeping that in mind, ACB could also drop lower. Our Support are is located around 7.93C$. Bulls need to manage to keep the price above it in order to stay bullish. If they fail, we might see a drop to around 7.24C$. Let's see how this will playout on Monday. Keep your eyes on the charts! If you have any questions or any thoughts, feel free send me a PM or to comment on this TA! If you'd like to join my Discord Channel to talk about stocks, share knowledge and have a laugh then please send me a PM so that I can link you to it! Take care!
TSX:ACB
by Raw_Blitz
ACB surges on Jeff Sessions' ResignationBig move today following a tweet buy President Trump that he has accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions twitter.com This came after a clear hourly bear break across the sector singling some daily consolidation was coming, but this breaking news clearly sidetracked that plan and delayed consolidation for at least a little while. I am closely watching for the hourly trend to change as the daily chart is very over extended right now Key levels for tomorrow: S: 9.59 R: 10.75, 11.29
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
2
ACB hourly equilibrium on watchThe oversold bounce is starting to feel toppy with a bearish reversal candle on the daily and declining volume. The high of the day rejected from the 100MA and we're in an hourly equilibrium now to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or set a higher low on the daily chart. I would also look towards Canopy for clues on how the sector leader breaks. Key levels for hourly eq: S: 8.63 R: 9.12 _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and affects every stock you own.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
ACB - Time for a reversal ?Dear Traders, ACB took a huge hit, but i'm happy that thanks to my previous TA I expected a big drop. I saw a Bearish Divergence and I stayed far away from ACB, WEED, TGOD and APH. But i decided to have a look because a reversal in imminent at this price. On the 1hr chart I see a Kangaroo Tail which is a bullish pattern, and I also see that my histogram is showing a Divergence, a bullish one. I think we might see a little uptrend towards 8.90C$, which is our 21 ema (Resistance), if that breaks, we should see a run towards 10.25C$ which is the 55 ema. Let's keep an eye on this one tomorrow.
TSX:ACBLong
by Raw_Blitz
2
Aurora bulls buy the gap down openQuick updates tonight. ACB had a big gap down and giant bounce in the first 30 minutes of trading, and remained in an hourly equilibrium for the remainder of the day. Bulls made an attempt at a new high of day in late afternoon but came 4c shy of resistance. The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it. Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag. Key levels: Support: 7.55 Resistance: 8.16, 8.20 If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 11.29. There are numerous hourly resistances on the way up to that level, giving Aurora several more hurdles that Canopy and Aphria don't have to deal with. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
2
Aurora nears daily oversoldACB continued its recent pattern of lower lows, dumping the whole day and closing down over 16% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 80% of the run up from August 14th to all time high over the past 10 trading days. Where we stand, Aurora has a lack of support here. Regular readers know I anticipated a bounce before our key weekly level 7.65, which we broke today by 10 cents. This was very unlikely to happen, which speaks to just how weak this chart is. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce. Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future? RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels: Daily - 30 4hr - 21 1hr - 21 If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts. If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aurora, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for ACB. I'm looking at the 1hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation Support: low of day 7.55, 6.67, 6.07 Resistance: 9.38, 9.88, 10.07 While Canopy and Aphria have a lack of resistance once they clear their two levels, Aurora has many more resistance levels to deal with. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
ACB trying to hand on waiting for Canopy's breakAurora has a much weaker setup, and looks clearest to me on the hourly chart. Unlike Canopy, Aurora has broken down to lower lows although bulls are still buying the dip so far. Friday closed with weakness heading back down towards the end of the day. We remain in a clear hourly downtrend with lower highs of resistance on each little bounce. The bear breaks on the hourly chart have so far been met with little followthrough as Canopy remains in its equilibrium. This correlation favours the Aurora bears; if Canopy breaks bearish, Aurora is well positioned for greater downside because of how much weaker the chart currently is. ACB is also down close to the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to new all time high, but has broken below the .65 unlike other names with stronger setups Key levels for Monday Support: 9.00 Resistance: 9.88 _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
4
ACB - Showing Bearish Divergence !Dear Traders, ACB had another run yesterday at the opening but as predicted a huge sell off happened. I hope you followed my advice to not enter any trades yesterday. We can see that ACB shows us a Bearish Divergence on the weekly chart. We got higher highs, but the RSI peaks showed us lower highs. Bulls are exhausted and we are now entering a consolidation period. Any thoughts ? Feel free to join my new Discord Channel if you interested in talking to me and others about stocks, info and of course opportunities! discord.gg
TSX:ACBShort
by Raw_Blitz
18
CREE - Keep your eyes on this sleeping monsterDear Traders, Bears were in control for a while but not anymore. Bulls managed to push this baby quite a bit and now it's time to see how powerful those bulls are. Is this stock going to pierce through the 200 ema ? RSI is overbought but this is normal which such a run, daily RSI looks sweet. Let's keep an eye on this one. If the bulls manage to break the 200 ema, we will see a run. Any thoughts? Feel free to join my new Discord Channel if you interested in talking to me and others about stocks, info and of course opportunities! discord.gg
C
by Raw_Blitz
TGOD - Bearish ChannelDear Traders, As we've seen before, my Support line didn't hold and TGOD's price broke underneath it creating a newer low. Even with the great news, TGOD received the 16th of October, the bears are still in control, But for how long? The bulls have to pierce upwards from this channel in order to show that they are back in business. Until then, TGOD's price will continue to drop. If the bulls succeed in breaking upwards, or next resistance points are: 5.83C$ (55 ema, and also our 0.5 fib level) 6.17C$ (100 ema) 6.96C$ which is the 200 ema. Let's see how the bulls will do this week. Any thoughts? Feel free to join my new Discord Channel if you interested in talking to me and others about stocks, info and of course opportunities! discord.gg
T
by Raw_Blitz
9
Alcanna: Undervalued Cannabis Stock Set to Profit from Retail Investors in the cannabis space have thus far focused primarily on the growers of the product. We first recommended Canadian greenhouse growers in 2016, added in 2017 and added again in early 2018. It has been a very profitable ride and I believe there is more upside ahead for cannabis growers over the next 12 months. But they will eventually face margin compression, as the supply shortfall turns into oversupply. This is due to the massive amount of money that has been injected to rapidly expand production capacity at multiple companies. As they maximize output in an attempt to achieve revenue growth, market share and first-mover advantage, they will inevitably overshoot and the oversupply will drive down prices. Lower prices will equate to lower profit margins for the growers, but this is probably 12 to 18 months out, so there is still room for valuations to continue higher before the margin compression occurs. Another way to profit from this high-growth emerging sector is through retail exposure. A big advantage to retailers is that they will not face the same margin compression as the growers, when all of the new supply comes online. Their margins are likely to remain high no matter what happens with supply and they stand to benefit from exploding demand in Canada, where cannabis becomes fully legal on October 17th. To give you an idea of the potential for the retail side of the business, take a look at leading retailer, California-based Medmen (MMEN.CN or MMNFF). While it took a while for their share price to gain traction, it has rocketed 50% higher in the past week alone and is up 80% since their IPO in May. They currently operate 66 retail stores across 12 U.S. states. Reamarkably, cannabis retail stores like MedMen can generate more sales per square foot than high-value retail leaders such as high-Apple or Tiffany. They do 5 times the average sales per square foot as Starbucks! Cannabis retail outlets can typically generate revenues in excess of $5 million per store, per year. Medmen are targeting $20 million in annual revenue per store. The stores have a gross margin of 60% and are so profitable that they have an average payback of under one year. Clearly, the retail side of the cannabis industry is a good place to invest. “Retail is the place to be because of the defensibility due to the zoning restrictions and the limited number of licenses,” Bierman said. “I think retail is the permanent moat opportunity for this industry and that’s where we’ll continue to be focused.” – MedMen CEO Adam Bierman I personally am not invested in Medmen, due to the way they structured their IPO and excessive executive compensation. They aim to be the Apple store of the cannabis sector, which may appeal to some, but their are priced significantly higher than other stores. This brings me to what I believe could be a better near-term opportunity for investors looking to profit from Canada’s legalization. Alcanna (CLIQ.TO or LQSIF) is a company on the GSB watch list that we have written about multiple times due to its potential in the Canadian cannabis industry. They are transitioning from solely a liquor store chain to adding dozens of cannabis retail outlets in Canada. They changed their name from Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd. to Alcanna Inc. to better reflect the new strategic direction through the expansion of the company’s business into two divisions: alcohol and cannabis. In 2017, Liquor Stores’ previous management went through a proxy fight with activist PointNorth Capital, which ended with PointNorth taking over the board and replaceing 6 of the 8 directors. PointNorth appointed new management with the view to explore opportunities in cannabis retail. Alcanna currently has a market cap of CAD$390m and has a dividend yield of 3.6%. They are the largest liquor retailer in Canada and second largest in North America with over 230 retail stores. With revenues in excess of $600 million per year, Alcanna processes over 20 million individual retail transactions of beverage alcohol. But Alcanna’s alcohol store margins are not particularly high. Despite $621 million in revenue in 2017, operating income was only $15 million and they reported a net loss of $30 million. These numbers have been improving in 2018, due to cost cutting, closing their weakest-performing stores, renovations, discount stores launches, increased private label offerings, new management, improved branding, and number of other initiatives. Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO or ACBFF) invested in Alcanna earlier in the year, acquiring 25% ownership for $138 million in cash. Aurora paid CAD $15 per share, a premium of 50% to the current share price of $10 per share. They have an option to increase ownership to 40% and I believe they will eventually acquire all shares of Alcanna at a significant premium as retail sales and margins move significantly higher. The vertical integration makes sense for Aurora and both Aurora and Alcanna are based in Alberta. Aurora’s flagship Aurora Sky production facility is located next to the Edmonton International Airport in Alberta. It is clear that Aurora is doubling down on Alberta and wants the home court advantage to expand from production into the retail side of the business. Alcanna has been given exclusive rights to open retail cannabis stores under the brand name “Aurora” across Canada. Alcanna’s position as the biggest private sector liquor retailer in Canada, aligns with Aurora’s position as one of the world’s leading cannabis companies. Alcanna’s CEO James Burns said they will be opening the doors to five or more new cannabis stores on the day of legalization, October 17th. All 37 stores are planned to be up and running in Alberta during the first quarter of 2019. Here are some renderings of what the new stores will look like. Alcanna finally received some attention from the markets in early October, when the share price spiked 15% higher on 5x normal daily volume. The main reason for the share price increase was that the company was mentioned during the FY2018 earnings call of partner Aurora Cannabis. Aurora is a much larger company ($12B market cap) with much greater coverage than Alcanna, so I suspect the fact that they mentioned Alcanna during the call drove investor interest and buying. Alcanna was mentioned around 8 minutes and again around the 25-minute mark in the Oct 9 Aurora conference call. There are others competing in the retail cannabis space in Canada, but Alcanna has a major leg up on the competition. They already have the stores, the operational experience, relationships with landlords and governments and the fundamentals of retail. They have been selling controlled substances in multiple provinces and had their boots on the ground days after the election in order to secure new locations for their cannabis stores. Their profit margins will rise considerably as they open new cannabis stores and convert some of their current liquor stores to cannabis retail outlets. Key to our investment theses is the vote of confidence from Aurora Cannabis, which bought 25% of the company and lent their branding to the stores. They have an option to buy up to 40%, but I believe they will eventually buy the entire company at a premium to market prices. At today’s prices, we are able to buy shares 50% below the price when Aurora invested. Of course, we don’t get the warrants, but the price looks attractive nonetheless. The stock has not participated much in the cannabis sector rally over the past few months, but we believe the upside potential is significant. Cannabis sales in Canada are estimated at $5 billion this year and will double to around $10 billion over the next 3 to 4 years. This is a massive market opportunity and incredible future growth potential. Alcanna is likely to gain significant retail market share, but even if they only capture a small percentage of the retail business, the upside potential is enormous. I expect to see Alcanna report rapidly growing revenue and significantly improved profit margins in the back half of 2019 and into the future. The chart shows a higher low this July versus the low from August of last year. There is also a nice uptrend over the past few months with higher highs and higher lows. After a brief spike to $11.50 in late September, the share price has dipped again to support at the trend line. The RSI is near oversold and has plenty of room to run higher. For these technical reasons and the fundamental bull case covered above, I believe this dip represents a buying opportunity in Alcanna.
CLong
by jhamlin24
1
AURORA Cannabis Inc: Producer WEEKLYReentry price action levels to watch Description Aurora Cannabis Inc. produces and distributes medical cannabis products in Canada and internationally. It is vertically integrated and horizontally diversified across every principal segment of the value chain, including facility engineering and design, cannabis breeding and genetics research, cannabis and hemp production, derivatives, value-add product development, home cultivation, wholesale, and retail distribution. Aurora received a license to sell cannabis oil in Jan 2017 & in In May 2018, Auror Cannabis purchased MedReleaf Corp. for 2.5B News: First LP to launch a high-potency, vape-ready CBD oil product line. Launched today under the brand Aurora Cloud, the first products released contain over 550mg of CBD and less than 30mg of THC, making them the only vape-ready CBD products legally available in Canada. Current Total Square Ft: 143,000 Future Total Square Ft: 943,000 Location: Cremona, Alberta, Canada Website: auroramj.com Number of Employees: 171 Market Cap: 9.527B Ave Volume: 4,922,898
AShort
by Charts_and_Such_1