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AUS200

S&P/ASX200 Will be crashHello we are part of a new community called lucky trading club in tradingview so let's begin our first analysis. Asx200 will be crash, we have a eqh on 7600 with a lot of liquidity it was already taken last friday, also we have an harmonic pattern in the range of 7500-7650. This is asx200 ATH when all institution begin to sell gradually, inflation still growing is the worst australian inflation in 33 years, rba will continue raising interest rates 50bps at 7 February. In ressume a lot of confluences to take this short position. Type of trade: Swing. Entry: 7580-7650 Our targets Target 1: 7450 Target 2: 7300 Target 3: 7000 Target 4: 6850 Max x20
EIGHTCAP:ASX200Short
by luckytradingclub
ASX 200 close to a swing low?The ASX 200 had a great start to the year, but has since seen prices pull back from tis YTD highs. Yet is we zoom out, the daily trend remains bullish overall, and prices during the recent decline appear to be corrective. It's pullback has also found support around a cluster of support levels including the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 50-dy EMA, monthly pivot point and 7300 round number. And as RSI recently reached oversold and has since formed a bullish divergence with price, we see the potential for a rally towards 7500. As US traders are set to return to their desks after the 3-day weekend, there is a reasonable chance of an 'up day' which could spill over to a positive start for the ASX tomorrow. Therefore, we're happy to enter the ASX long ahead of the close with a stop beneath this week's low, and initially target 7500.
ASX:XJOLong
by CityIndex
A traders’ week ahead playbook – trades in a lower vol market Looking at FX 1-week implied (options) volatility, we are guided by how the market sees the upcoming event risk impacting how far price can extend and subsequently our potential trading environment. It’s the percentile rank that jumps out here, as most FX pairs and gold are closer to the bottom end of their own 12-month range – in essence, the market is not expecting big moves – up or down – and while this is a reflection that price moves have realised at low levels, the data and known event risk are not expected to materially change the fundamental landscape. Implied volatility matrix The bond market is as influential as ever The bond market remains such an important driver of all markets, but after moves higher in yield on the week, we see fatigue in the selling in 2 & 5-year Treasuries - this has caused some angst to push the USD higher, after giving the USD bulls hope of a bullish breakout (USDX) from the consolidation zone. For example, we saw US 5yr Treasury rise to 4.14% on Friday but reverse to close at 4.02% and this has kept the yield premium over German bunds unchanged last week at 1.20% - it’s part of the reason why EURUSD held the 1.0655 support well. I am guided on the USD by UST 5’s this week, and while it still holds the premise to kick higher (USD positive) my base case is this price action becomes choppy and range-bound – it seems the volatility markets agree. The next big event risk remains Powell’s testimony This week’s US data holds some risk for traders to hold exposures over, but as we gear up for the 22 March FOMC meeting, the eyes of the world really look forward to Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony (7 March) as the next tier 1 event risk – we could see some better vol conditions leading into that speech. For this week, while we get a few Fed speakers, the Feb FOMC minutes are largely stale but could still hold some nuggets for the market to work with. Expectations for US core PCE look a tad low, with the consensus not having been adjusted for the big PPI surprise. We get idiosyncratic global event risks that could be vol events, but unlike US data which resonates through multi-asset markets, should be confined. Global events to put on the radar Canadian CPI could impact the CAD in a big way if we get a hot number above 6.3%. The RBNZ meeting could be also one to put on the radar – the market prices 44bp of hikes here, and NZD implied volatility is priced higher than other FX pairs. While inflation is rampant in NZ, the announcement of the state-wide emergency in response to Cyclone Gabrielle could see the RBNZ look to reduce the blow to households, such as we saw for the support to the Christchurch earthquake. I am not sure that hits home and households feel the support on a below-expectations 25bp hike - so it’s either 50bp (consensus) and be the bad guys (but they have a job to do right?) or leave rates unchanged in my mind – the latter an outcome that could mean the NZD gets smacked off the bat – a compelling risk-reward event-driven view here when only 1 of 22 economists are calling for it, although I’d be getting out quickly on that. Aussie wages hold significance – the bigger reaction in the AUD comes if the market gets a sense that the RBA’s sanguine view on a wage-price spiral is misplaced – as we see in the playbook above 3.5% YoY wage growth and it could get spicy. AUD positioning, however, leveraged accounts (typically hedge funds) are already long and the market AUDUSD is far more correlated to copper, AUS-US 5yr yield differentials and USDCNH. See the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 0.6877, where a break would target 0.6650 – I’m personally not the biggest H&S fan, but one man’s trash…. AUDNZD looks the better play for trading Aussie data and the daily looks ready to kick higher – I am on notice. Staying on the positioning vibe, I notice the JPY is by far and away the professional leveraged accounts' biggest long exposure at present – this could get tested this week with incoming BoJ gov Ueda speaking as part of a panel, while Nat. CPI could push further higher and see calls for an end to YCC kickback into gear – both clear risks for JPY and JPN225 exposures. Equity market moves On the equity side, we continue to watch the USD and bond market plays – the terminal fed funds pricing (now 5.28%) looks fair and I can't see it moving much higher than 5.3% at this point. Equity markets could find some support from that, but the bears will want to see 4050 give way in the US500, and 12,200 in NAS100 – That’s where the buyers are stepping in and a daily close below here could see a higher vol priced. The HK50 always gets a good look-in from clients and that seeing better-trending conditions, with traders selling into rallies into the 5- or 8-day EMA. Earnings from Alibaba and Baidu this week could impact the HK50, especially Alibaba given the implied move and sizeable weighting a HK$2.11t market cap hold. A big week of AUS200 earnings On the earnings side – in the US, while 81% of corporates may have reported, this week we get earnings and outlooks from several of the big retailers and that could impact at a macro level too. In Australia, we’ve seen 47% of the Aussie index report earnings, with 63% of those having beaten (or come in line) expectations on EPS, while 67% have beaten on sales, with an aggregate 12% sales growth seen. It’s the big week of earnings here too, with this being the week where the biggest absolute number of companies hit the wires – BHP, RIO, WOW, and QAN to name a few. It could get a level in the AUS200, which like the HK50 is also trending lower and needs to see support at the 38.2% fibo (of the Jan-Feb rally) at 7321 holds. Play of the week? CADCHF – one of the best mean reverting plays at present, with the market playing an ever-narrowing trading range – 46 days in a 200-pip range. The Bollinger Band squeeze could result in something explosive, and as we’ve seen in the past five years the cross can have some explosive moves when it does break out after a quiet period.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
A traders’ week ahead playbook – CPI to offer key insights We roll into the new trading week, with 1-week FX volatility surprisingly sanguine, where we see most levels trading in the 25-50th percentile of its 12-month range. AUDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY seem to have the highest implied move - so this is where to look for potential movement (based on Friday’s closing levels). XAU is expected to hold a range of 1899 to 1832 (with a 68% level of confidence), and the weekly chart suggests this expectation is fair. Implied volatility matrix – sourced from options pricing, we see the 1-week implied volatility and assess the implied move (higher or lower) with a 68% level of confidence. This can tell us a lot about expectations of movement and help us with position sizing. We also see the VIX index is only gently above 20%, the CBoE S&P500 put/call ratio holds a lowly 0.69, and rates volatility has risen a touch since 2 February, but is still well down since the October highs. In essence, the market seems ready to kick into gear if there is a shock, but they are somewhat confident they don’t get one. We’re seeing a bit more chop come into broad-market trading conditions – this has meant more effective intraday mean reversion trading and less momentum/trend opportunity. Fundamentally, as we go through this period of change and re-assessment - with the market keen to know if this is really peak rates and what type of economic landing we get (hard, soft) - we’re all trying to price an outcome and risk, and when clarity is lacking, we get chop, as the collective wisdom in the market finds it hard to forge a consensus. US CPI the marquee risk That consensus may make up its mind on a US CPI print above 5.7% on core US CPI – it would certainly put the market on notice that either a 50bp hike is a possibility in the March FOMC, or potentially add another 25bp hike in June. With much of the talk recently of a big player betting on a 6% fed funds rate (through interest rate futures), a hot CPI print would get that trade working. I’d say, however, the market is comfortable with its view we see 0.4% MoM / 5.5% YoY – it gets messy the higher we see inflation above 5.7% YoY print though and that’s where the market adds risk hedges and looks to get short risk in greater size. Consider the raft of Fed speakers who get a say on how the US CPI print affects thinking – the market would have made its own mind up, but these speakers could offer key insights and inject further vol into markets. The front end of the US Treasury curve is where the action is and that is starting to trend higher– so we’re watching US 2yr and 5yr Treasury’s – US 5’s interest most, with yields breaking the 100-day MA and eyeing a move into 4% - an outcome that would likely drive USD flows and take the DXY out of its recent consolidation and into a new trading range. EURUSD looks like we could see 1.0550/00 through the week if the CPI print comes in hot, and the market is running this short into the release. EURCAD is another play on the mind, which post Canada payrolls on Friday (150k vs 15k eyed) is getting good attention from shorts, as the market now looks ahead to Canadian CPI on 22 March and asks whether the BoC is premature to call an end to its hiking cycle. UK data in focus While UK jobs get focus, its UK CPI that could inject some volatility into the GBP, and which pose a risk for GBP traders – we see UK headline CPI expected to pull down a tad to 10.3% - a number that is just above BoE expectations and one that could cement a 25bp hike in March. Technical indicators on the GBP pairs seem quite neutral at this juncture and even EURGBP, which has pulled back from 0.8978, is finding the sellers harder to come by. On the equity front, we see some de-risking of late, where China/HK is getting better activity to express a short bias – unless we see some renewed interest here, the HK50 could kick down to 20,100 and lower levels are my bias given the tape – a stronger USD wouldn’t sit well with Asia equity markets either. In the US the NAS100 is creeping back to the former breakout point of 12,100, so any further decline here will be keenly watched to see if the bulls step in to defend – one for the scalpers. ASX200 earnings in focus The AUS200 could be one index where we see correlations break from other DM equity markets and work on their own merits, with Aussie corporate earnings ramping up – there are a number of big names to watch, but CBA (report 15 Feb) is one I am watching closely here, with the market expecting cash to be handed back to shareholders with a $2.09 div. The balance sheet and asset quality, and general outlook on the credit environment have the potential to move broad markets. Commodity views On the commodity side, feeling neutral on XAU at this point, SpotCrude could have another look at $82.30, where longs are interesting above here for $90. Nat Gas is getting some attention from traders on the long side, but this is not my jam – it’s the wild west and position sizing is key when fading this sell-off. Palladium is getting smoked at this point, and for now, I am following the flow and see risks this trades further lower – when in doubt sell what’s weak and palladium is weak.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
AW ASX Analysis - How This Pattern Differs to the Dow Jones...A quick video to mention the slight difference between this pattern and the Dow Jones. Most people don't care about their portfolio oscillating within these moves. If you are trader or investor that likes to swing trade however, then this might be of interest to you. Don't forget to check out the Dow Jones version down below. Short Stop: 7656. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
FX:AUS200Short
by AriasWave
7 reason why the ASX200 is eyeing all-time highs With the ASX200 testing the ATH's seen in August 2021, the question of what exactly is driving the flows has been asked more liberally by clients - While we can point to macro factors, such as a belief that we're closer to an end in the hiking cycle, USD weakness, and a China re-opening, our analysts look at 7 of the key attractions driving the strong performance of the Aussie share market. 1) The ASX 200 trades on a 14.7x 12-month PE ratio - that's in line with 10yr average, but you get 5% expected EPS growth. Hardly blow the lights out potential returns but compared to other global equity markets, it could be worse! 2) The ASX200 is a 'value' markets and it trades on a 4.4% yield - arguably the highest yielding market in the developed world, and by some way - 47% of ASX200 listed entities have a higher div yield than the Aus 10yr govt bond (3.5%). 3) The ASX200 is leveraged to quality banking institutions who are benefiting from the higher cash rate environment- fine, the demand for credit is falling, but it's not awful at this stage and their asset mix is still of top quality and there are limited concerns around bad and doubtful debts - CBA report on 15 Feb and should highlight a decent lift in NIM, where the market feels strongly they should pay out cash to shareholders, lifting the dividend nearly 20% at FY earnings 4) There are some of the highest quality names in the materials space - for managers who want leverage to China reopening and the bullish dynamics in copper and ferrous (even in AUD), then the ASX200 has it - BHP, RIO and FMG all looking strong, and are now benefiting from a drop in production from Vale 5) Australia has the strongest GDP expected this year of any developed economy - fine, the consensus only expects GDP to average 1.8% in 2023, but that is far higher than the US, UK and EU 6) The ASX200 has excellent exposure to some of the world's highest quality healthcare stocks - CSL, COH are world-class and have been on fire recently 7) There is low leverage to tech - granted, that has seen the ASX200 underperform the NAS100 since mid-Jan, but international managers come to Australia for quality value stocks - they go to the US for high-quality tech/growth
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by Pepperstone
1
📈 AUS200 Unstoppable 📈📈 AUS200 Unstoppable 📈 Nearest strong support zone: around the 0.786 level of the downward wave. 📈 Nearest strong resistance zone: around the 0.886 level of the downward wave. 📈 Technical environment: - Moving averages: Uptrend - MACD: Uptrend - RSI: Uptrend 📈 Price action: the AUS200 has been positively distinguishing itself from other stock indices for quite some time now by showing very strong upward momentum, we are getting higher day by day. In addition, we have broken through another resistance which will currently serve as support. It is very likely that on the wave of strong growths we will see the next resistance zone in the perspective of the coming days. 📈The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the increases to the vicinity of the next resistance zone. I don't exclude the possibility of changing the scenario if the market situation changes abruptly. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 📈 Please do not suggest the path I have outlined with lines it is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀 If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile. 🚀
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by InvestMate
5
AW Dow Jones - ASX Analysis - 2022 Bear Market Not Over Yet...In this fast-paced analytical video from down under we cover the chart from left to right up and down... In a nutshell I had a major revelation when it comes to what is going on in these two markets across the futures and market hours charts. I see some strange things, but it leads to opportunity... Just when you thought it was safe to put on a long position on the index it seems like a fake out wave in the making. The move up is not over yet but it's very close. In this video I aim to demystify the movements which have taken place over the last two years and what is going on right now. Say goodbye to 20 minutes of your life as you hear me talk at a hundred miles per hour, so I don't lose my train of thought and hopefully your attention. Well, it's worth a try! Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
FX:US30
by AriasWave
AUS200Dear friends, what we are going to see in this post is why I'm waiting to go long on AUS200. Price was travelling in the downward direction in the 4h time frame and now it is the verge of a breakout. As it is a breakout for the first time from the downward parallel channel, price will reverse as there is a supply zone at 7146.00 to 7183.80. Even though price is near to the 8h supply zone still price is coming from the strong demand zone. Now you can see there is a heavy buying pressure. Whatever AUS200 goes towards the supply zone still it is coming from a strong demand zone. So, shorting at this time is little is a bit risky but small profit can be expected. Don't expect too much. Just book the profit if you are shorting and sit quietly for the price action. Because it is very important to stay protected our capital in the stock market. If you look at this chart the price has a strong support to retest to go upside. Trend is down in the lower time frame, and it is up in the higher time frame. As we all know that higher time frame controls the lower time. So, if you want to go short, yes you can. But don't expect too much. Price may or may not go up quickly. But all I expect is that the price will go down to take a strong support and then go up. If you are a breakout trader and you're on the verge of the market high, then you can plan your risk accordingly. The current supply zone will prevent the price from going up. The traders who have taken the long position entrap bulls. Everyone rushes to open a long position as the price is going up rapidly. But after opening the long position the price starts to fall after the frenzy that heats up our head. If the price of this script starts falling, then the best place to open a long position is at 7029.00 or 6921.00. Look at the chart attached for a better clarity. Avoid buying in haste. Perhaps 7110.00 is a good place to buy this stock if it closes above 7200.00. But it is wise to follow your risk management before taking entry. I love to share my ideas. Feel free to revise the text and provide feedback. It makes it so personal and improve us in better ways. Thanks & Regards, Alpha Trading Station Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market". FXOPEN:AUS200
FXOPEN:AUS200Long
by AlphaTradingStation
AUS200 forecast December/JanuaryWith holiday comes low volatility. I expect market to stay within 7080-7158. Very likely till first week of January. This might play out two ways: 1. Bullish scenario: - we break above 7158, and hit 7250. (Max 7400 to form double top on daily chart and then drop to 6500 or even new lows) - looking into Elliott Waves strategy - we could face one more wave to the upside 2. Bearish scenario: - not much movement until Jan, staying around 7080-7195. - drop to 6500. Long story short I expect going back towards 2022 lows in the next three months. It’s hard to say when exactly it’ll happen. Big move can be triggered by pretty much anything at this point (worse CPIs, new Russian sanctions, restrictions in China, new wave of Covid….). This is a risky enviroment so trade carefully and always do your own analysis before opening the trade.
FX:AUS200
by Trinnisia_Trades
1
SPI200 - Sentiment remains negativeSPI200 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 7165 (stop at 7215) Buying pressure from 7018 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 7025 and 6965 Resistance: 7140 / 7340 / 7590 Support: 6965 / 6860 / 6770 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
SShort
by VantageMarkets
Buying ASX at previous high.ASX200 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 7025 (stop at 6975) Buying pressure from 6959 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Previous resistance level of 7027 broken. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 7025 level. Our profit targets will be 7170 and 7340 Resistance: 7140 / 7340 / 7590 Support: 6965 / 6860 / 6770 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:AUSTRALIA200CFDLong
by Saxo
XJO AUS200 retraced only 0.382, chops around median of pitchforkXJO acting as an inflation hedge, except when recession kicks in, which will kill all demand. XJO or AUS200 is outperforming US indices coz in a high inflationary environment, a country producing a lot of commodities tend to do better. Another example is Brazil with ticker symbol EWZ, which is also a good inflation hedge if dont want to use PFIX to capture rising rates. Gold right now is crashing with equities & not acting like an inflation hedge as it is supposed to do. As you can see in the chart, there is a perfect pitchfork with XJO chopping around the dotted median. As shown in the past, the green pitchfork level should offer a strong support should XJO fail to hold the median of pitchfork. On the other hand, a bounce from the median may send XJO to the top of the pitchfork for a new high. Also, XJO has made many measured moves…like the 3 DARVAS boxes or fractals down from its all-time-high. landing or stopping exactly at the Fibonacci 0.382. Next stop may be the 0.50 Fib & also along the green pitchfork level mentioned above. Among some Australian commodity stocks doing well are IGO (lithium), BOE (uranium), & BHP (metals & potash) Not trading advice
ASX:XJOLong
by xtremerider8
AUS200 on a tear - how much longer can it continue? The Australian 200 stock index continues to move higher, despite weakness in the states. A fiscal boost from China could be helping to spur the high risk index higher. Weaker Aussie employment data could also lead to a less aggressive RBA. From a technical perspective, price is nearing a key resistance level at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 200-day SMA. The RSI is in overbought territory and price is more than 5% above its 50-day SMA, which called a top previously. 7.3k is the level to watch for an upside breakout, while a rejection and roll over would bring the 7k and 50% Fibonacci level into play.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200
by Pepperstone