AUS200
LSF (L1 Long/Short Fund) - Bulls in ControlWe expect price to test the resistance pocket between 1.610 - 1.645 shortly, off the back of a bullish breakout and positive NAV movements.
LSF is still trading at a 10% discount to NAV.
There is the possibility of a pullback to retest the breakout point 1.500 - 1.540.
We expect any pullback to be met with big buyer demand, so long as the NAV keeps making gains.
ASX200 ForecastASX200 is currently correcting to its local support off the back of an overextended bullish move and collapsing stochastics.
The most probable event is we see price retest local support, before a pause for consolidation and then a break lower towards major support.
We expect major support to hold for long entry, provided the world macro environment stays stable, although we are cautious of slowing international growth.
The less likely event is we see equities bounce off local support and test for new highs. We see it as less likely given a slowing macroeconomic environment.
ASX (AUS200) (AUS200Cash) LONGThe Australian Stock Market index is looking very bullish, due to the double top pattern forming on the lower timeframes. The higher timeframes also signify a rally, which sets the mood for this trading signal. I would wait to see how rice would react to the 61.50 level, which represents an institutional level, and was also tested previously Then an entry would be made after this retest. Do note that the price may not retest that far as it all depends on the buying pressure. The 200 EMA is currently moving below the price in the lower timeframes, which also prepares us for buy positions. I would expect the price to rally further with the target being the height of the "W" pattern.
Christmas rally on the XJOTrade Set Up – We would be looking to enter on a daily close above 5780 with stops confirmed once entered, and a target level of 5980-6000.
Why we like this trade – Whilst history is no guarantee of future price action it is important to note that a correlation in a Dec move over the past 10 years has yielded an average of +2.74%, all of which starts from the 16th of December.
A strong start to the month for equities with the XJO up 1.84% and price action recently testing and finding support at 5650, which has held true all year. We would be looking to enter with a daily close above 5780 and stops to be set once entry is confirmed around the 23.60% retracement of the most recent short-term down move. Our target level would be as high as 5980-6000 and a break above these levels could target the YTD high of 6380.
That said, a weekly close below 5680 and more so, a break below the uptrend and 23.60% long-term retracement may indicate a major bear moves and a potential end of a 9-year bullish cycle where it may be not so merry for investors in the top 200.
Disclaimer.
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All readied up for long the autralian indexI am seing the australian stock market selloff slowing down, following a selloff due to the global fear in the world that produced dumps of everything.
Going to keep an eye on the dow. Right now the dow is the big bubble in the world, and it is where every one has some money. The whole market cap is insane, in particular you got the top us (and some chinese) tech stocks that have ginourmous market caps. Funny how Wallmart makes 500 billion in revenue (10 bil net income) but its market cap is far behind, while Amazon with 1/3 revenue & net income (175 bil & 3 bil) has this monstruous market cap for the simple reason of being a "tech" thing... Most tech stocks are... Apple is a crazy company and even Buffet bought shares close to ath, their net income dwarfs all the rest at 60 billion btw... BUT if we go into a recession people are not going to feel rich and are not going to buy overpriced "luxury tech". The whole Apple success is super fragile in my opinion.
I see the dow going into some kind of complacency OR going to make a triple top. Unless it dumps hard it will not prevent Australian stocks from bouncing.
Back to the subject.
To make this simple, Australian PE ratios are at average, even in the lows compared to the past 20 years, the dividends are ok, pretty average.
The country is not in any trade war, there is no drama around it, its companies are solid and yes the us dollar going up might hurt them a little, but Oil is also going down not so much a big deal for them thought.
Here are the biggest companies:
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
Aristocrat Leisure
Amcor
AGL Energy
Australian Stock Exchange
APA GroupStapled Security
Aurizon
AMP
Alumina
Bank of Queensland
Australia is one of the richest country in the world (by person ofc), behind Luxembourg Switzerland and all the small places.
Like the swiss they are very service oriented & in particular in banking etc.
Do not want to go super in depth, but to make this simple there is no reason for it to go down massively it's all fear because the the overvalued us tech stocks.
The FED talking about hiking rates in december so eyes open... Maybe Aus bounces before that and we can get run away with our profits before this happens :bitconnect:.
Dax and Cac 40 are in the same boat
Will patiently wait for my target to get reached and go long unless there is a terror attack or something. Oh and also, bullish divergence on oscillators.
Correlation & recent divergence of Australia & Hong KongInteresting divergence in the past few months in what are normally two highly correlated indexes (Hong Kong's HSI and the Australian index). Hong Kong is the red line, whereas Australia is the blue line. Note the stark divergence where HK is heading south, while Australia has yet to head downward.
Note that the lines represented here are the 100-day exponential moving averages of the index to smooth things out.
Watchlist : ASX 200 (AUSTRALIAN 200) Showing clear uptrendThis indices is looking good for a long, it needs to break above 6150 (red line) to confirm the bullish trend. The ASX joins FTSE, NASDAQ and russel that are leading the way as the potential for a risk on move continues, short term the yen pairs are heading lower so this may take more than a few days to become a trade.
I have given the pair a wave count but it is not a clear or standard one so may be ignored, however the trend is clear and one directional so I am keen to buy into it.
Short AUS200 by butterfly pattern
Now, the Australian stock index is down on Monday, reminding me that the pattern may be formed. Now I will give you an analysis of how to look at this pattern and how to trade with it.
The butterfly has X A B and C D five points, enter the trade when these five points meet the fio ratio.The essence is form pattern recognition. Butterfly's B requires a 78.6% correction near the previous XA , and the B point in the figure is near 6028, which fits this ratio 78.6%. The point C cannot exceed AB, so the range is actually larger.The potential D points is determined by the ratio of the XA and BC.D is 1.272 or 1.618 times of XA, (in this case 1.618 times), while D point is between 1.618 and 2.618 times BC, now D is 2.24 times BC.
It can be said that BC's 2.24 times and XA's 1.618 times forms the potential reverse zone , which is near 6151
In this area, the confirmation of a candle signal is the icing on the cake and can be released.The usual signals are shooting stars, hanging necklines and so on
After short it , the target position of the short position is located near 38.2% of a-d, and 6064 of the figure
Thank you, good luck
AUS200Hello,
Aus200 opened strongly on Monday morning which broke through the significant barrier at 5790-5800 with ease.
the channel of 5650 - 5780 was trading since June 2017 and both bottom and the top of the channel got tested many times during the period of June and October as investors are also looking for new direction.
Finally, on 16Oct, it opened at 5831, 31 pips from the resistance level. It looks like we have got a new direction. Now, we are patiently waiting Aus200 to fill the gap 5800-5831 before going further again to 5880 and 5920.
Limit order set at 5801
SL at 5765 36pips
TP1 5880 79pips
TP2 5920 119pips
patience pays, happy trading!