ASX futures tease bearish with a potential swing highSanta's rally put in a poor performance this year. ASX futures sold off into Christmas before the 200-day SMA and 8000 handle came before the market eked out a weak comeback into the new year. Yet price action on the daily chart suggests we could be approaching a swing high.
It appears we're in a third wave higher from 8000, yet momentum lacks the legs of the initial bounce to suggest an ABC correction could be nearing an end. The 50-day SMA has so far capped today's rally and could leave a bearish pinbar should it close the day around current levels. A multi-week bearish divergence has formed on the RSI (14) and the daily RSI (2) is approaching overbought.
The bias is to fade into moves towards the 50-day SMA and target the November low. But if appetite for risk truly sours, we could see prices break beneath the 200-day SMA and 8000 level and head for the lower trendline of the rising channel.
MS
Aus200trade
AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 8560.0 (or) escape Before the Target
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Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the AUS200 INDEX (Australian Stock Market Index) is:Bullish
Reasons:
Strong economic growth: Australia's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2023, driven by a strong labor market, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the housing market.
Low unemployment rate: Australia's unemployment rate is at a historic low of 4.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending and economic growth.
Increasing commodity prices: Australia is a major exporter of commodities such as iron ore, coal, and gold, and increasing prices for these commodities are expected to support the country's terms of trade and economic growth.
Monetary policy support: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates at a record low of 0.1%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy.
Fiscal policy support: The Australian government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth.
However, it's essential to consider the following risks:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth could reduce demand for Australian exports and impact the country's economic growth.
Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between Australia and other countries, particularly China, could impact the country's trade balance and economic growth.
Housing market risks: The Australian housing market is highly valued, and a downturn in the market could impact consumer spending and economic growth.
Bullish Factors:
Strong global economic growth, driven by strong consumer spending and investment.
Low interest rates, which can increase demand for stocks and reduce demand for bonds.
Potential for a rebound in the Australian housing market, which could boost consumer spending and support the economy.
Growing investment demand for Australian stocks, driven by their potential for long-term growth and dividend yields.
Diversification benefits of investing in the Australian stock market, which can reduce portfolio risk and increase returns.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 75%
Bearish sentiment: 25%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
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ASX 200 bulls eye another crack at 7300 (Australia 200 CFD)The possible 'sympathy bounce' towards 7300 highlighted last week played out nicely. Whilst we're on guard for bearish momentum to return as part of the seasonal 'sell in May and go away', we retain a bullish bias over the near-term.
Prices have since pulled back from those highs and price action on the intraday chart appears to be corrective, in the form of a falling wedge (a bullish continuation pattern). It's forming a base around the 38.2% Fibonacci level and above the 50% retracement line, whilst RSI (14) is forming a bullish divergence.
- From here, bulls could consider bullish setups above 7226 in anticipation of a move higher
- The bias remains bullish above 7220
- The wedge pattern suggests an upside target near the base of 7300
AUS200Dear friends, what we are going to see in this post is why I'm waiting to go long on AUS200.
Price was travelling in the downward direction in the 4h time frame and now it is the verge of a breakout. As it is a breakout for the first time from the downward parallel channel, price will reverse as there is a supply zone at 7146.00 to 7183.80. Even though price is near to the 8h supply zone still price is coming from the strong demand zone. Now you can see there is a heavy buying pressure. Whatever AUS200 goes towards the supply zone still it is coming from a strong demand zone. So, shorting at this time is little is a bit risky but small profit can be expected. Don't expect too much. Just book the profit if you are shorting and sit quietly for the price action. Because it is very important to stay protected our capital in the stock market.
If you look at this chart the price has a strong support to retest to go upside. Trend is down in the lower time frame, and it is up in the higher time frame. As we all know that higher time frame controls the lower time. So, if you want to go short, yes you can. But don't expect too much. Price may or may not go up quickly. But all I expect is that the price will go down to take a strong support and then go up. If you are a breakout trader and you're on the verge of the market high, then you can plan your risk accordingly.
The current supply zone will prevent the price from going up. The traders who have taken the long position entrap bulls. Everyone rushes to open a long position as the price is going up rapidly. But after opening the long position the price starts to fall after the frenzy that heats up our head. If the price of this script starts falling, then the best place to open a long position is at 7029.00 or 6921.00.
Look at the chart attached for a better clarity. Avoid buying in haste. Perhaps 7110.00 is a good place to buy this stock if it closes above 7200.00.
But it is wise to follow your risk management before taking entry.
I love to share my ideas. Feel free to revise the text and provide feedback. It makes it so personal and improve us in better ways.
Thanks & Regards,
Alpha Trading Station
Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market".
FXOPEN:AUS200