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Aussi

Aussi Vs Greenback (AUD/USD) Intraday Trading Strategy & IdeaWe had a negative tone to fear to feel at the beginning of the week, perhaps after Trump's news playing down positive China trade talks (incorrect coverage of US willingness to lift tariffs as part of a "step one" agreement). For now, the key level which I mention in chart 0.6850 had a break earlier and is now testing. The message to look for is a bearish one as long as the mood of the U.S .- China's trade front remains sour. NAB Business confidence data had been downtrend in past couple of months and morning it was better than last month though. If the U.S .- China feeling reverses (which is a very possible scenario), then a break above the key level 0.6850 zone is the technical signal to be interested in the role of long bias.
Long
by jessi061
Aussi Vs Yen (AUD/JPY) Mid Term Trade Strategy & PlanWord through the forex town was that, depending on how the first step of the agreement works out, the U.S. and China are planning to roll back certain tariffs in tranches. Risk capital, however, had their rallies cut short when it was also revealed that within the U.S. government this proposal faced strong internal opposition. The monetary policy statement issued at the Asian session of the RBA indicated that the central bank refused to further lower rates. Besides seeing some signs of growth emerging from a soft patch and labor market resilience, officials are also concerned that further easing could convey an excessively negative performance view.
by jessi061
Pricing in Aussi/Greenback retracement!! Small swing setup.Expectations are for the RBA to hold on to any further rate cuts, for now, so the big action is likely to come only if there is a surprise rate cut from the current overnight interest rate of 0.75 percent. After the RBA event, AUD / USD may fall into a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" situation as an interest-rate holding might have been pre-priced. Negative geopolitical headlines (e.g. negativity of trade between the United States and China) may help this retracement to form which should be taken care throughout the weak. TP: 38.20% Fibo Retracement.
Short
by jessi061
Aussie certainty Vs Swiss uncertaintyAussi: CPI (QoQ) (Q3): weak Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable PPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct): strong ( High sensitive) Probability of rate cut: Aussie cash rate futures are showing 87% odds of the RBA staying flat for next week (Nov 5). Swiss franc: ZEW Expectations (Oct): weak KOF Leading Indicators (Oct): strong SNB's Jordan: Cites the dangers of shrinking interest rate spread Negative rates and readiness to intervene in FX still essential to keep the pressure on the franc Cannot say when Switzerland will return to a positive rate Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): strong CPI (MoM) (Oct): weak procure.ch PMI (Oct): forecast strong (due)
Long
by jessi061
Buy the rumors sell the news. Real life example AUSSI VS LOONIEAfter last week's elections, relatively strong domestic data and perceptions of stable (or even stimulating) fiscal policies were sufficient to keep the doves in the bay for BOC and I assume loonie was performing well throughout months because this thing was already known by smart players. Most of the position was well placed in the loonie side for months by smart traders and was a " buy the rumors " case for market (hoping for steady monetary policy from the bank and rumors around buying in optimistic of BOC) and now when the actual date central bank had announced which also ended up being steady, no cut, no dovish and as expected! but market just turned opposite for the pair or we can say any pairs which have loonie as counter or base acted just opposite against the loonie and ended up being " sell the news " (even knowing it was steady release, no cut, no dovish now everything has already been priced in, juice sucked up so profit-booking by closing of position creating back new fresh demand in another side and doesn't matter what was released and what only matter was to sell on news). Priced reached in such a level where everyone fears to hold longer and where smart people thought good place to book the profit which creating good demand and is indeed in a demand level where nothing can stop from rising upward rather than falling back deep. Aussie has been doing well lately along with the EURUSD and GBPUSD and has a high potential for trending upward talking about the longer time horizon (which we can evaluate from AUDUSD performance). Oil future seems not well too and if loonie is really done, for now, juice has been sucked up months before then a pullback of this downtrend is what not a surprising thing which we may see in future days.
Long
by jessi061
AUDJPY big downtrend. High Reward/Risk [Intermediate Advanced].Beginner too if you are able to use small size, a stop loss, and understand how this works, the idea behind it. False breakout of the MA50 and if it goes a little higher possible SFP. What is looking like a complete impulse wave has not been able to do better than retracing the ABC down. There is some short term spiking, I think it is because of slightly improved unemployement data (AUS) and money printing because the economy is doing great and also China poor gdp. Media is saying "big capital shift". Easy counter indicator. This is just short term, to reverse (and go back to the multi year downtrend) very soon. 60 to 80% of traders on non prime brokers are long, possibly soon to be trapped bulls. Doesn't say where stops are thought. (Self reminder to set clean links to info sources & COT etc, getting boring to have to search everytime) (Also self reminder to note sentiment)
Short
by MrRenev