Get started

Aussie

AUD could retest the March lows if the Fed are not that dovishAUD/USD is hinting at a potential swing high on the daily chart. And if my hunch that the Fed won’t be as dovish as market pricing currently suggest, it leaves room for USD strength and a lower Aussie. AUD/USD seems to have completed a 3-wave retracement which perfectly respected a 38.2% Fibonacci ratio. Our bias remains bearish beneath the cycle highs, and we anticipate a move back to the March lows should the Fed stick to their hawkish guns, given the RBA delivered a dovish hike and dovish minutes this month.
Short
by CityIndex
4
AUDJPY - a key barometer of risk - is holding above key supportDespite the turbulence across global assets these past two weeks, AUD/JPY is opting to hold above key support and resistance levels including the 2022 low and 2021 high. Investors remain on edge as they cannot be sure that the worst is behind us, and there is a risk that another bank will 'break' under the pressure of higher rates, bad management and / or face another bank run. But what if none of this materialises? Or the Fed is not as dovish as market pricing currently implies. Perhaps the real risk is that it's not that risky, and that could leave room for an upside surprise. Even if AUD/JPY does break below 87.00, we'd prefer to see a break beneath the 2021 high of 86.26 before calling a major top on the weekly charts. The fly in the ointment is the FOMC meeting, because if they're not as dovish as hoped it could pressure risk assets such as indices and AUD/JPY. Yet a dovish meeting could support sentiment and send it higher. Either way, it is worth watching AUD/JPY around current levels as it could help signal the next likely directional move for risk assets in general.
by CityIndex
AUD/CHF Why Not?OANDA:AUDCHF Sure, why not trade something I don't normally look at. I have to start with this pair at some point. After a couple of close TP misses prior/during the recent Asian session, took a short on the Aussie Swissy heading into a round number before NYSE open. After the opening bell, it slowly chopped and hit my hard 10pip TP, right before the small whiplash "Pending Home Sales" USA release 10:00 am est (UTC-5). My trades are not huge pip amounts, but consistency wins the race. Think rabbit and the tortoise, and the amount of lots on each of my positions. Trade well
Short
by makerup
1
AUDUSD - We Keep On Going?I've published an analysis about the head and shoulder last week, which was looking really good on paper. It broke the neck line but then, it came back right in, looking more like a fake out than an actual break. I've collected something from the the neckline break but, I had to close before TP because of the strong reversal that happened last friday. But anyway, that forced me to take back my technical analysis, and I've found more evidences in favor of a rebound of the aussie, conforting the fact that we might be facing a fakeout. Technically we're still in an uptrend. Even though we've been falling lately, the uptrend's structure remains intact, and we should treat it for what it is. The situation : 1) We're in an uptrend 2) We've experienced some weakness lately 3) Price just visited an imbalance area (look left) 4) Price is touching 2 major trendlines and seems like it's reacting to it 5) Last Daily candle is a bullish pinbar in an uptrend, last 2 H12 candles are making a bullish tweezer, last 3 H8 candles form a morning star This one is a tricky one because, if we forget the head and shoulder, it's a clear buy, with strong candlestick formations at a clear level, so a long would be valid, but in the other hand, the price has retraced right to the neckline level, which is extremely precise in this situation. Price could still potentially break down and both scenarios could play out. But the favor goes for the rebound on the trendline because it is with the trend. If price was to break both trenline, we'd have a confirmation for a trend change, even if it was to go in a range for a while, but as is, we're in a uptrend. I'll be watching this one until I get a clearer picture of what's going on. I'd like to have confirmation about whether or not price wants to stay under or above the neck line until I make a move Cheers everyone and safe trading!!!
by aemerydufoug
AUDUSD AUDUSD Aussie, I am bullish the dollar short/medium term view. I have been short most of FX major pair and scaling out but we are currently stuck within range on all FX majors. The commodity FX pairs have had more downside and that is being reflected on EURNZD / EURAUD. However, overall when we look just at Aussie we are within a range and it is a break to either direction and what's beautiful about this chart, look at the trendline support - Perfect! Lows: 0.68580 Highs: 0.70165 A break to either direction. If you were to go to lower TF. There is a pattern brewing M. Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal Don't forget to trade your own plan.
by Trade_Journal
2
Time To Drop The Aussie? Yeah nah yeahAlright the AUD has had a short bearish rally and stalled. Now retracing, we are faced with the question: Is this a new trend, or just a pullback in the bull market. Bullish factors: - Bounce from the 50D moving average - Yesterday closed bullish - RBA has addressed that further interest rate hikes will be needed Bearish factors: - Potential pricing in of future rate raises into the market already - Recession, strong US jobs data - 1H chart entered a bearish market - broken double top neckline Comment what you think! I am going short here but we shall see what happens.....
Short
by tomstewy
AUDUSD Remains Bearish Despite Hawkish RBAMarkets are slow, they did not change much for the last sessions. Well, the only mover of the Asian session is AUD which found support at rallied after RBA hiked from 3.10% to 3.35% as expected. More important RBA mentioned that further hikes will be needed to bring down inflation, which is not a surprise after a latest jump in CPI figures. But despite the hawkish policy, AUDUSD did not gain that much, so I still think that further potential weakness on the pair can show up, but mostly because of USD domination after reversals last week. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see nice and clear five waves down, so more weakness will be expected after A-B-C. Nice resistance can be at 0.7-0.705.  We talked about aussie yesterday in LIVE WEBINAR here on tradingview. For recording CLICK HERE www.tradingview.com
Short
by ew-forecast
1
Another hawkish RBA hike, but will Jerome Powell turn AUD lower?Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case • The labour market remains very tight • Wages growth is expected to continue picking up due to the tight labour market and higher inflation • The board will continue to pay close attention to labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead • Further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead. The two key words here are ‘increases’ and ‘months’, as it implies more than one hike over the coming months. And with rates at 3.35% it means the market pricing and consensus among economists for a terminal rate of 3.6% is not correct. Given that the employment situation remains robust, inflation is higher than they expected and ‘strong domestic demand is adding to inflationary pressures’, we have several green lights for a hike in March and perhaps in May. Perhaps we’re closer to the elusive pause they teased us with last year, but I see no immediate threat of one in that statement. And whilst the RBA expect CPI to decline as global factors and growth in domestic demands slows, what is going to happen if they do not slow quickly enough? Yep, more hikes. For now, a March hike seems like a done deal and I live in hope they hint at a pause, but I will not hang my hat on that given the data overall and strong levels of inflation. AUD/USD 1-hour chart: The Aussie bounce around 1% after the rate decision, but it is debatable as to whether it can retain its strength if Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message overnight. The Fed’s rate remains above the RBA’s, with a higher expected terminal rate. AUD/USD found support around the 50-day EMA and has since spiked higher, but bears may want to seek evidence of weakness around 0.6900 as it houses the monthly pivot point and broken trendline. Of course, should Powell fail to deliver the hawkish message, then it leaves AUD (and other FX majors) more wriggle room to unwind some of their post-NFP losses.
Short
by CityIndex
AUD/JPY - Can the AUD outperform the JPY?COMMENTARY The AUD seems to be gaining the most against the JPY compared to the following G10 Fx pairs including the NZD, CAD, EUR, and the USD in front of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) interest rate decision. High price action across the AUD cross pairs is expected upon tomorrow's RBA rate decision. Current price for the AUD/JPY is above its 40 day moving average (bullish), MACD above its signal line (bullish), rate of change 13 day above its signal line (bullish); upside potential for a retest of the 92.8s provided price can remain above the 89.9 support; downside risk on break below the 89.9 support could position short sellers to target the 87.90 area. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
by Skilling
1