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$AUD - 2023 🐂$AUD - 2023 🐂 Happy New Year! May this year ahead of yours be full of trading opportunities and most importantly great health. $AUDUSD - C&H (Cup & Handle pattern) If this carries on playing out we have great zones we can take opportunities on. Watch out for 2023 I am bearish the dollar and bullish all commodity FX pairs! However, don't forget about your trading plan and most important implement your risk management skills. It's going to be a very volatile year with CB's divergences and various other factors, but again with great volatility gives us traders opportunities! Fear not. Key tip: Get a good R/R. Have a great year ahead. All the best, Trade Journal Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice
Long
by Trade_Journal
AUDJPY - Further downside is expectedAUDJPY - Intraday - We look to Sell at 90.00 (stop at 91.25) Previous support located at 88.00. Previous resistance located at 89.00. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 90.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 88.00 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 87.25 and 87.00 Resistance: 89.00 / 90.00 / 91.00 Support: 88.00 / 87.25 / 87.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURAUD - Long EOD set upThe technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower terminal rate in 2023 • The AU curve still looks too steep and we see inflation risks as increasingly skewed to the upside. Slowing down, not a slowdown We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate by another 25bp to 3.1% at its 6 December meeting. Markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike (24% chance of a pause) as at the time of writing. The message will echo its determination to keep the economy on ‘an even keel’, balancing the challenge of suppressing rising inflation with the risk that rate hikes could tip the economy into recession. The RBA has moved cautiously on rate hikes: not only was it slow to lift off, waiting until May 2022 to do so; it also surprised markets by downshifting to a 25bp hike in October, becoming the first major DM central bank to slowdown the pace of rate increases. It then stuck to its gradual hiking pace at its November meeting, despite a strong 3Q CPI print (see RBA review: Sticking to 25, 1 November 2022). The RBA has cited the high frequency of its meetings – the RBA meets 11 times, the FOMC and ECB each have 8 meetings scheduled per year – as a reason why it can afford to take a gradual approach. Market pricing reflects increasingly dovish sentiment – markets are now pricing rates to rise to just 3.5% in mid-2023, down about 30bps in a month. Optimism on rates grew after the RBA’s monthly CPI for October, released on 30 November, showed both the headline inflation slowing to 6.9%YoY (vs. 7.3% in Sep) and the trimmed mean measure easing to 5.3%YoY (5.4% in Sep). However, we caution that for October, the new monthly series contains only 62% of the price data used in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) quarterly CPI – it omits, for example, new information on many administered prices such as utilities, which are not priced until the final month of the quarter. For these reasons, the RBA has stated that “the quarterly CPI is likely to remain the principal measure of CPI inflation in Australia for the foreseeable future,”1 making it premature to call for a peaking in inflation based on the October monthly CPI print. Nor does it change the fact that inflation is likely to remain well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Yet the RBA will likely remain less hawkish than its counterparts overseas. Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has only recently started to pick up above 3%. The RBA does not yet see signs of a wage-price spiral, though it has stressed the need to remain vigilant. It noted in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) that “reports of higher labour costs contributing to price increases have so far been largely contained to price increases have so far been largely contained to a few specific sectors.” A softer retail trade print (-0/2% MoM) and Governor Lowe’s apology before the Senate for the RBA’s (abandoned) promise to hold interest rates steady out to 2024 have added to growing expectations of a lower terminal RBA rate. For these reasons, the risk of a recession in AU in 2023 remains a low probability and the risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, in our view. The RBA’s restrained approach, sustained strength in the labour market and a continued boost from a record term of trade make an economic contraction less likely than peers. We do not have cuts in our profile. Waiting for the wave The main risk reflected in market pricing and the RBA’s published commentary is that households have not yet sustained the full impact of rate hikes. We have pencilled in hikes until May 2023 just before the mortgage rate reset wave accelerates in mid-2023. The maturity profile of fixed-rate mortgages taken out when lending rates were as low as 2% suggests the “cliff” may have traction. The line of questioning at Governor Lowe’s attendance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee and public speeches from the RBA confirm that fixed-rate mortgage resets are at the front of their minds when they consider risks to the economy. Yet Australia continues to enjoy meaningful protection from downside risks, in our view. A positive terms-of-trade shock that has reduced Australian Government funding requirements also means the challenges of housing headwinds should be easy for policymakers to counteract should we see signs of household distress in 2023. At the same time, a long period of low unemployment is likely to generate higher wages and partly offset the dampening effect of rising loan payments on consumer demand, reducing the risk of a housing-led downturn. On the upside, the prospects of a substantial shift away from COVID Zero policies in China continue to gather pace as a steady stream of announcements suggest the country is like to gradually reopen in 2023. The Chinese reopening could boost Australian GDP and increase the scope for the RBA to tighten rates further. We see the RBA holding rates at 4.1% from May 2023. A rise in cash rates and signs of economic resilience should mean a flatter curve. We have also maintained a view that the AU 2s10s curve is too steep relative to other developed markets (a positive slope of 40bp for AU government bonds compared to -72 for the US). We continue to like a box flattener (AU steepener vs US flattener) and outright AU curve flatteners.
Long
by Macrobriefing
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Swing failure on AUDJPYTrade Idea: Buying AUDJPY Reasoning: Swing failure at 91.08 Entry Level: 91.25 Take Profit Level: 92.00 Stop Loss: 91.04 Risk/Reward: 3.29:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
GBPAUD: Your Trading Plan 🇬🇧🇦🇺 GBPAUD is trading within a wide horizontal trading range on 4H. The price is currently coiling around its resistance. To short with a confirmation, watch 1.8128 - 1.8166 area. It is a neckline of a double top pattern. We need a 4H candle close below that to confirm its breakout. Short aggressively or on a retest then. Goals will be 1.808 / 1.803 If the price sets a new high though, the setup will become invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
5
$AUDUSD - Important data this week, be prepared. $AUDUSD - Get ready... Another week, another great opportunity for us traders to take advantage of. This week is a very important week: CPI, FOMC & PMIs. It was a difficult week, choppy action but that happens when we have important data this week. It's important to reserve your capital gains when market conditions are like this kangaroo or amber mode is way I describe it. Some are stating the CPI print will be more important than FOMC - I think it will be both very important as we go towards year end we still have plenty of trading opportunities and this week is a great week. We expect CPI to soften, 7.7% previous to 7.3% - If it comes in softer the rate hikes working, we expect 50 basis point for this meeting and the next and then we expect cuts - Now the market is forward looking we've seen risk play big part DXY declining cuts coming into play, easing less pressure dollar declines: we have Aussie, Gold and crypto escalate higher. What Powell will state will be very important in my humble opinion as we get to year end and positioning for portfolio management I have no set direction on yet to decide the movement for this week, we are within mid ranges of all assets - you could trade the data or wait and trade the after reaction. Regarding past data on Friday we had PPI: It came stronger than expected however we had minor dip in EUR we still went to rising back, now within the mid ranges. The dollar bears are still out there but will they get hurt this week? Only time will tell. Technically AUDUSD: We are within ranges a break to either direction, at this current moment of time we arent closing above 200ema if we are to close above bulls could gain further control up we go towards .70 areas easily - if not this rally fails and goes back towards .64 half areas All the best for this week, Trade Journal (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN - NOT A SIGNAL PROVIDER)
by Trade_Journal
2
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Revisiting AUDCHF for lower pricesTrade Idea: Selling AUDCHF Reasoning: Head and shoulders retest E ntry Level: 0.6321 Take Profit Level: 0.6260 Stop Loss: 0.6339 Risk/Reward: 3.13:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
1