Gold Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern: Targeting $2,970–$2,980This chart shows a breakout from a triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe for gold (XAU/USD). The breakout has occurred above the resistance of the triangle, indicating potential bullish momentum.
- Resistance Zone: The previous resistance level was around 2,936–2,940, which was tested multiple times before the breakout. Now, this level may act as new support.
- Target: The projected target for this breakout is near 2,970–2,980, aligning with the height of the triangle pattern.
A successful retest of the breakout level could confirm further bullish movement toward the target zone.
Aussiedollar
Will AUDUSD limitedly recover amid mixed views?Macro:
- The aussie-dollar is rebounding after the bearish sentiment over Trump’s tariffs has pressured the currency.
- Expectations are rising that the RBA will cut interest rates this month due to easing inflation and weaker growth prospects.
- This theme may impair currency recovery if there are any further corrections.
Technical:
- AUDUSD is recovering from its swing low around the support at 0.6150. The price forms a potential double-bottom pattern, which may set an upward bias to the currency in the short term.
- If AUDUSD stays above its support at 0.6250, the price may continue to advance to retest at 0.6400, which confluences with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement.
- On the contrary, closing below the support at 0.6250, confluence with EMA21 may prompt a retest of the previous swing low of around 0.6140.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
AUDUSD - 4H Why we need to Buy?!The FX:AUDUSD has shown strong bullish momentum after hunting liquidity below the 2022 low on the daily and weekly timeframes.
✅ Breakout & Retest: The pair successfully broke the descending channel's resistance and is now pulling back to the breakout zone, confirming its strength.
✅ Higher High Formation: A higher high structure supports the bullish bias, indicating potential continuation towards previous highs and beyond.
📌 I expect another bullish push from this key support zone.
🔔 Follow for real-time updates!
Bearish Setup in AUD/USDT: Trendline Support Under PressureAUD/USDT is currently moving in a classical bearish pattern, with the price taking temporary support at the lower trendline.
However, this support appears weak, and it is unlikely to hold for long. A breakdown from this level could lead to further downside momentum.
More bearish movement is expected as the structure remains in favor of sellers.
DYOR, NFA
AUDUSD - Very bearish for the Aussie Dollar!Very bearish for the AUDUSD. The Aussie dollar is coming under pressure.
Breakout from the aqua colored symmetrical triangle to the downside. Note the AUDUSD was already on a secular long term down trend (under the red downtrend line).
Potential price target of red arrow at 55 cents, or worse still the 48 cent target of the early 2000s (green arrow).
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
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AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights.
Technical Setup
Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level).
Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection).
Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit).
Risk/Reward Insights
This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips.
Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed.
Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
AUD/JPY Clear breakthrough, trend trading.Hi guys, we are coming up with yet another fantastic opportunity, which we will express our attention onto Resistance and Support line. The AUD/JPY has been trading in a very tight range since the beginning of October up until now. There is an extremely strong resistance line which has been physically broken once sitting above the level of 101.700 , in between that time the pair has been trading just below the Resistance of 101.600 to it's lower end at the support of 99.778. For now my analysis would be targeting the lower end of 99.700 to 99.800 level and then for us to see another retest towards the two goals which I have set up as follows
As a pending order - BUY LIMIT at level of 99.778 with following take profits -
Take profit 1 : 101.161
Take profit 2 : 101.673
Enjoy this fantastic analysis which has brought me a lot of success the past two months, hence the fact that it was trading in a very obvious range and allowed for very easy entries to follow up and catch quite a few good pips of movement.
AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months.
From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions.
On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends.
Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index.
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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: AUDUSDAUD | AUDUSD:
Look at the Weekly TF. Price is sitting in the +FVG, therefore my bias for the week is bullish.
I'm only interested in longs at this point.
Should price close hard below the +FVG, then that invalidates my bias. I will start to look for sell setups.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
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AUDCAD Long - SLs Patiently Waiting To Get DestroyedWell, there is not much to be explained besides of: Look at the weekly and the higher lows. How much of confirmation do you need, that we want to attack the upper range? Look at the 4h and tell me what you see? I see dozens of Shorts trapped and begging to stay alive. Green line needs to hold to validate this idea. Good luck.
Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA moves opposite with Fed
The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also clarified that inflation could continue to decrease if the Unemployment Rate increases further. As the RBA continues to uphold its hawkish stance while the Fed declares a 0.50% rate cut, the Aussie dollar may persist in its upward trajectory.
AUDUSD extended its uptrend, breaching the psychological resistance at 0.6800. The price rose above both EMAs, while EMA21 widened the gap with EMA78, sending a bullish signal.
If AUDUSD sustains its uptrend while holding above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 0.6870 high. Conversely, if AUDUSD fails to hold above EMA21 and breaks the support at 0.6730, the price may fall further to the 0.6640 level.
Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA moves opposite with Fed
The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also clarified that inflation could continue to decrease if the Unemployment Rate increases further. As the RBA continues to uphold its hawkish stance while the Fed declares a 0.50% rate cut, the Aussie dollar may persist in its upward trajectory.
AUDUSD extended its uptrend, breaching the psychological resistance at 0.6800. The price rose above both EMAs, while EMA21 widened the gap with EMA78, sending a bullish signal.
If AUDUSD sustains its uptrend while holding above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 0.6870 high. Conversely, if AUDUSD fails to hold above EMA21 and breaks the support at 0.6730, the price may fall further to the 0.6640 level.
AUD/USD: Watch for a Reversal with RBA Decision AUD/USD continues to hit new yearly highs as risk sentiment improves following the FOMC’s 50-basis-point rate cut last week and today’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting, where no rate change is expected.
However, a dovish tilt from the RBA meeting notes could shift the pair’s momentum, with the 200-Day Moving Average acting as a key level to watch. Also, keep an eye on the RSI, which is nearing the overbought zone at 70 on the daily chart.
Beyond the RBA decision later today, Australian inflation data is set for release tomorrow, with headline inflation expected to drop sharply from 3.5% to 3.1%.
RBA Decision: Can Bulls Break 0.6900? RBA Decision: Can Bulls Break 0.6900?
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates by half a percentage point this week has intensified scrutiny on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which will hold its policy meeting next week.
Making a RBA’s interest rate cut less likely in the short term: Australia's labor market delivered stronger-than-expected job growth in August. Maybe this is why the AUDUSD has printed a nine-month high earlier today, creating the fourth consecutive green candle.
However, underlying weaknesses are emerging, as the gains were driven by part-time employment, with full-time jobs declining.
Should this momentum continue, AUD/USD could potentially test 0.6900 resistance, a high last seen in late 2023.