Aussiedollar
#AUDUSD OUTLOOK OCT 11TH - OCT 16TH HELLO TRADERS,
OUR VIEW ON #AUDUSD
MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK FROM .7200-.72500 CONSOLIDATION ZONE
WE NOT WATCH FOR RETEST OF .72000 PRICE ZONE
IF FAILS TO HOLD,
WE ARE TAKING IT DOWN TO .69250 AT LEAST!
Always ONLY Risk what you are ok to lose.
#Forex
THE TRADING REGIME.
OANDA:AUDUSD
Aussie Ichimoku Long SetupThis pair had an attempted kumo breakout and bullish kumo twist before falling back down into the kumo.
I am looking for a kumo breakout to confirm an entry for a chance to get long.
If we can get that breakout and jump up past our previous resistance we saw last week then this will be one to hold for the week.
I've drawn out some partial take profit levels on the way to my overall target.
If we fail to get that kumo breakout or if our bullish confirmations change, this setup may become invalidated.
Australian Dollar S T R E T C H E D Interesting price action today - as the US Dollar ( DXY ) was rising marginally so was the Aussie Dollar - while the Euro , CAD, British Pound all moved lower.
After a month long accumulation - The Aussie broke out rising more than a cent - on the last Friday of August, and continued to move after hours.
Today's price appears to be a stop run, before the market turns and go the other direction.
This is a situation where you want to watch their hips not their eyes. We are outside recent value - this trade idea is that we return to value clean up the weak price structure. The second target is to the other side of value and clean more of this price structure.
The US Dollar is skipping at the bottom of a channel - but its holding. Fund managers are adding to their net long positions - all pointing to lower Aussie Dollar prices.
BLOOMBERG:
8-28-2020
EQUITY FUND MANAGERS RAISE S&P 500 CME NET LONG POSITION BY 9,213 CONTRACTS TO 144,877 IN WEEK TO AUG 25 FOR USD
Speculators are short USD.
AUSUSD (Y20.P4.E1).Short term TA.Hi All,
Looking at the Aussie dollar against the USD, we can see on the daily that we have downward pressure along with the bearish divergence playing out.
I have 2 levels as a point of interest.
The 0.5 fib retracement and 0.618 fib as one can see that this has confluence with the wedge breakout target, and along with the daily EMA levels.
USD (DXY) is currently going sideways and potentially breaking the near resistance as the chart below.
This is no surprise as the stock markets and asia markets \ Aussie stock market dropped a few % yesterday.
Lets see how things are in the coming days and weeks turn out.
Cheers,
S.SAri.
MACRO structure
USD index
GBPAUD - Bearish Confluences Multiple bearish confluences are presented on GBPAUD.
First and foremost from a fundamental perspective, we observed an extremely bearish Pound over the course of Monday's trading sessions. Whether the pound's weakness will continue I am uncertain, but in the short term it appears the likely direction given the current state of the Brexit/Coronavirus affairs.
From a technical perspective, at CMP we are resisted by the 200 EMA in line with the descending trendline. The highlighted grey zone illustrates an area of previous support-turned-resistance which price has remained below since.
Price is currently resting on a support level from July however should this break we may see a drop to the 2020 low at around the 1.75 psychological. I will be assessing this pair during Tuesday's London session for a potential entry.
AUD_CHF STRUCTURE SHORT|TRADING PLAN
big picture
AUD_CHF IN FINAL STAGES OF TRIANGLE TRADING, SUPPORT BREAKOUT EXPECTED
TRADING PLAN:
(1) IF breakout happens>>>
(2) Wait for it to be confirmed>>>
(3) Short on pullback.
(4) Takes on the chart.
IF triangle upper resistance breaks>>> setup invalid-possible long!
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LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for LULZ....
EURAUD Superior Reward to Risk RatioHello Fellow Trader!
EURAUD Superior Reward to Risk Ratio
Daily Chart: EURAUD has crossed below a weekly trend line set back from February 2017 and forming a bearish 5 wave wedge (ABCDE).
To complete the wedge pattern, the final wave E is now in play for upside before the next fall.
The open today MUST hold the bullish engulfing 1 hour range for confirmation to enter.
Key Points:
- Price holding above the 50 EMA
- Price to reclaim 200 EMA
- Bullish Engulfing Pattern
- Price holding Fibonacci 50% retracement level
- Price zone of Fibonacci Extension 100%-123.6% (ABC)
- RSI could break trend and range simultaneously for momentum
Key Levels:
Support – 1.6240, 1.62104
Resistance – 200 EMA, 1.6300, 1.63282, 1.6400, 1.6500
Entry Zone:
Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals.
Optimal Entry – 1.62400
Supporting Entry – 1.62500
Candle Reversals for entry
- Bullish Engulfing
The Risk:
As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios.
If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital.
IF: Price breaks below 1.6200 – this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter.
Reward / Reward Targets:
Optimal Entry 1.62400 – Target 1 1.63282 = 2.3x Reward to Risk
Optimal Entry 1.62400 – Target 2 1.6400 = 4x Reward to Risk
Optimal Entry 1.62400 – Target 3 1.6500 = 6.5x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 1.62500 – Target 1 1.63282 = 1.5 Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 1.62500 – Target 2 1.6400 = 3x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 1.62500 – Target 2 1.6500 = 5x Reward to Risk
AUDUSD - LongI ended up closing a short trade for 6% profit, the way that 4-hour candle closed, was a nice conformation that price could now push up from here. Weekly, we had a big bullish candle, and this week showed a nice doji and a retest of that. I believe 0.7500 in the coming weeks will be achieved. So a slight push down for another push up will nice to watch out on.