AUDUSD SELL trade outlookOn the chart is the 4-hour time frame Elliot wave count of Aud/USD.
This shows an opportunity to sell the pair after confirming that the impulse is complete.
We saw the start of a new impulse wave after the completion of the ABCDE triangle correction. Then, the wave 1and wave 2 of the new impulse unfold, followed by the wave 3 which ended with an ending diagonal followed by a triangle pattern; wave 4.
So, currently, I suggest that wave 5 has ended and I am looking for a selling opportunity.
Invalidation level is around 0.74500
Aussiedollar
AUDUSD: possible scenario0.72250-0.72750 price zone might act as resistance and possible opportunity for opening short position.
Since end of July the pair is trading sideways, however the bias remains bullish (meaning lower volumes should be opened).
Rising number of Covid cases resulting lockdown in Melbourne + global uncertainty might fundamentally support Aussie from breaking above 0.72750 price level.
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EUR-AUD STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|SWING LONG OPPORTUNITY
The pair is trading in a range with a bullish momentum, within the context of a larger daily support confluence and the bullish triangle.
All that gives us a hint to expect a bullish breakout. However, the situation is complicated by the fact that the breakout up of the current range resistance will let the price out into the narrow red decision corridor, between the range resistance and the larger horizontal resistance.
1-IF both are broken>>
2-wait for pullback
3- enter a great swing long.
4-SL Below the level
If the range level stands, then we will see a pullback to the local support for accumulation of power for the new resistance re-test!
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AUD-JPY MASSIVE LONG|STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|TRADING PLAN
The pair has broken up out of the downward channel where its been for a while and has now formed a bullish triangle on its way up, below the structure resistance. Given the bullish momentum and the setup, our target trade is a long, but with conditions.
TRADING PLAN:
1-IF there is a breakout upwards
2-Wait for it to be confirmed
3-Go long on a retest
4-Take profit levels are on the chart
5-SL below the horizontal level
Alternatively, IF the triangle gets broken downwards, with both support lines broken too, then one might be interested in going short, with SL above the horizontal resistance. This trade however, has lower probability and is less secure, as the setup will be less clear. Use your own best judgement and look at the price action.
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GBP-AUD STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|TRADING PLAN
The pair had broken out of the long term downward resistance line and is now consolidating below the resistance in the bullish triangle/flag.
Even though the pattern is bullish, it can break out either way, thus:
TRADING PLAN:
1-wait for the breakout, either way
2-make sure it is confirmed
3-Enter the position on the pullback, according to the direction of the breakout.
4-The ultimate targets are the support and the resistance.
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AUD/JPY STRUCTURE LONG|TRADING PLAN
The pair successfully bounced from a strong horizontal resistance, and is now at a support level+the diagonal triangle support is nearby.
Therefore our structure trade is a long.
TRADING PLAN:
1-Wait for the diagonal resistance breakout
2-Go long after pullback
3-Targets, SL, on the chart.
4-Next long opportunity will be near the triangle support.
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EURO-AUSSIE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|KEY LEVELS|
EURAUD is trading in a massive upward channel with a strong horizontal support in green as an additional backup.
After the in-channel diagonal resistance was broken, the pair was set free to go up with the channel and retest the upper bounds.
Now, the small diagonal resistance has also been broken and there the new target is the horizontal structure resistance.
There is a hight chance for it to be tested soon. Therefore i am bullish short term.
Key levels for now:
Resistance: 1.6584
Support1: wherever the diagonal support gets touched.
Support2: the broken diagonal resistance is now a mirror level
Support3:1.6113 to 1.6055(if the channel support is broken again)
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AUD/CHF STRUCTURE LONG|SUPPORT REACHED|TRADING PLAN
AUD/CHF has reached a strong support level, while trading in a wedge.
If the diagonal resistance gets broken>> long after pullback.
If the support breaks>>short after pullback.
But I am bullish on this one.
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AUD/NZD STRUCTURE SHORT|
The pair is trading near the resistance of an upward channel, while also having reached a strong horizontal level.
Therefore, the expected move direction is down.
The yellow square indicates the resistance confluence zone.
Keep your sell limits in the square area, and short if the price spikes there.
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Trend change is coming. Entry technicsThe Australian dollar rallied above 0.72 and was immediately rejected. But it still holds the above the daily trendline. Potentially this rally can be extended to 0.73. Buyers have to protect their positions with tight stops. Commercials (based on COT) keep adding to their short positions, the cycle is turning to the downside. That makes me believe a selloff is coming. Failure to make a new high or breakdown below the daily trendline is a sign of trend change.
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.06.15For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD. So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal with a completely new decision point.
Since I considered the said bounce from the lows, a complete 5 wave sequence right on time for Fed and called live here, the strategic rule that one must now to cover and protect. In the long run, the positional struggle comes down to a struggle between USD devaluation via FED and restraining tendencies towards high beta fx. In this all embracing dance with risk, though an important strategy in itself is to remember it is only a means to an end.
AUD/JPY STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|DECISION LEVEL|TRADING PLAN
The pair is trading in an uptrend after the diagonal resistance breakout.
Now, AUD/JPY is facing a strong horizontal resistance.
WAIT for the breakout either way.
For the bearish breakout the diagonal support needs to be broken too.
The short is a counter trend trade and therefore has lower probability. On the other hand, the level is strong and the RSI is in the oversold zone.
Thus, let the market give us a hint in a form of a breakout.
Then, depending on the direction, short or long based on the price action.
Yet, the current price level is a good spot for opening positions, as it certainly is a decision level.
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