Get started

Aussiedollar

AUSUSD(Y20.P1.E2).Some reliefHi All, The Australian dollar has reached its previous all time low in recent years against the USD. On the 8 hrly, there is a bullish divergence (being a double bottom) being formed which will likely give a nice bounce to about the 0.66 mark. The candle sticks also look positive at this level. I haven't looked at any other currencies but my guess would be that most have dropped as well. Please give me a tick or a like as an appreciation of this post. Regards, S.Sari. Previous Post
by ssari
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.10Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk. The move in play for the coming sessions and looks difficult to defend against. I am tracking 0.6925x to prevent the breakup for bulls this week and trigger profit taking. After an exchange of direction flanking works decisively well and the execution timing-wise is of importance. For those tracking the 2020 AUD Macro map and digging into the fundamental side I would highly recommend checking the following diagram: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. If you have any questions/charts as usual jump into the comments and we can open the conversations. Good luck all those in AUD.
Short
by ridethepig
6
GBPAUDAveiq Capital Management Group 13th January 2020 Looking at this pair from a fundamental perspective, we can clearly see that a yearly high has been reached towards the end of 2019. This was particularly due to the recent elections results. Moving forward, the commencement of 2020 has began with a negative forecast in relation to GBP data which has resulted in bearish momentum. The structure of the pair now indicates a higher high followed by a lower high formation, acting as a key supply zone at the 1.900 level in order to meet the demand zones of 1.88 and 1.86 respectively. We are initially targeting a yield of 2% (1.88). If we see a clean break of this area, we will target a longer term yield of 4.7%.
Short
by AveiqCapital
ridethepig | AUD 2019 In ReviewHere we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than expected, smart money is tracking for the same course of action from RBA and AUD. The shape of the Long-term Macro chart: The housing market continues to rise with a lack of supply entering into expectation plays by 2021 via declining vacancies and higher rental prices. The low rates will act as a catalyst for price growth. On the Corporate side , with PBoC using AUD to arbitrage the trade war business investment will continue to pick up in 2020. Scott Morrison will keep public infrastructure at high levels, while the weaker AUD in 2019 will continue to help exports. Unemployment has shown signs of improving, spare capacity will last till end 2021 and keep inflation via wages benign. This is supportive of RBA remaining on hold and here betting on no further easing as long as macro conditions show signs of improvement and stability. Dollar bear case: Australia / New Zealand: Forecast summary We can continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation to further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
AUDUSD Finally Broke Out of Its Long Term Trend Line! AUDUSD Broke Out of The Down Trend Line on The Higher Time Frame, The Market Is Already Making Higher Highs And Higher Lowes, The Daily TF Retraced Back Already To The Backside of The Trend Line Forming A Bullish Candlestick Formation With A CTL Break, If It Goes Up Now (Technically It Should But Nothing IS Certain) I Believe Its Going Up To The Next High, Then After That The Market Has A High Probability To Come Back Down Creating A Right Tip of The crown Before It Goes Up Higher.
Long
by ElyaStein
ridethepig | AUD Macro Map 2020Lets get started... On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. A quick update to the Macro Chartbook : PBOC Floor via China arbitrage : On the USD side: Commodity currencies are equally sensitive to global risk sentiment flows. NZD coughed and struggled to take back 0.63x however with RBNZ Nov cuts overpriced and extended I like entering NZD$ longs at market with a 0.618x stop. The same flows are in play for AUD; looking for the 0.6725 support to hold with all eyes on the employment print. On the technical side for AUDUSD, we have traded many entries and additional loading opportunities live here on Tradingview. For those following the flows so far: Rally set to continue in the New Year : I will continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation and we can further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2