MONEY: IN SMALL TRENDSIn my own methodology I've shown in other charts that, it doesn't matter which time frame you make your money. I even showed a 3 min trend on one occasion. All this true is trend-following - which is different to following a moving average of some sort. The ATR line reacts differently to price fluctuations.
The important thing is to minimise losses.
This chart is a 15 min time frame. It's of little value now because the start of the trend is where you want to be. But for the future I'm showing where the entry point is. Similar strategies can be used on other time frames.
1. See the trend breaking down and fighting to stay afloat.
2. See the double top on the 15 min time frame.
3. See price collapse.
4. See the rebound to 0.5% fib.
Experience is required with all this. In this scenario the stop-loss could have been just above 0.618. That was an unlikely rebound in this particular scenario because price was struggling already. (In other scenarios where price isn't struggling as much I've seen retracements to 0.76 and above).
Please note carefully: true trend following is a higher risk strategy but also an exceptionally higher reward strategy. It loses far more often than other strategies. But numbers of losses mean little. Why? It's the aggregate of the minority of big gains well outweighing minimised greater numbers of small losses. It certainly isn't for 'everybody'.
In he captioned scenario, nobody knows how far that 15 min trend will go. NOBODY! For trend-followers in this scenario, the exit would be the amber line. In other words, the market shows the entry point and the exit point. That's very scary.
See same strategy on the lowly 3 min time frame below
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Aussies
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like.
The technical features here are:
1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum.
2. Recent RSI is below 50.
3. Rejection of 4H ATR line.
4. Large area of consolidation.
Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go.
This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this.
Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Aussies in the crosshairsA potential kill zone is shown. DO NOT enter if you cannot lose money!
It's this simple: price below amber 4h ATR.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
The Aussies: Is this another one-candle situation?Well, it is one candle at the leading edge. We cannot know if it means anything until stuff happens. Those who look for predictions that foretell the future are in the wrong game.
In trend-following methodologies, one would ride an escalator down or up - on a smaller time frame that that shown here (to conserve losses).
When you zoom out of this chart, you see a market struggling to stay afloat. That's usually not a good sign. The 4H ATR line is above the recent batch of ranging candles. This means there is bearish pressure in this market (on this time frame only). The bulls have lots of work to do if they wanna get above the 4H (amber) line.
The trouble for the Aussies is that they are bounced around by a) the DJI b) the USTech100 and c) US Bond markets. That's why it looks so indecisive (at this time). They are normally most scared of the USTech indices. So watch USTech as well for a steer on probabilities on lower time frames.
Candle and wedge pattern - Starring The Aussies! This is an interesting position. Anything is possible. No advice is given. New traders may need to study these patterns and practice on paper trading accounts.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
AUDUSD ANALYSIS Audusd analysis hope it will help you stay on the right side. Please share your ideas and views in comments .
POTENTIAL EXPLOIT: Aussies in trouble.The 4H position on the AUS200, could be an advantagious exploit for a controlled affordable loss.
1 - The Aussies tend to follow the DJI and USTech 100.
2 - But there is usually a time lag of between 30 mins and 2 hours.
3 - The DJI did a major leg down but the Aussies barley flinched after a major bull run yesterday.
I've seen it many times, where they catch up after that delay. Then they panic.
As the DJI could be moving south from the base of a head and shoulders pattern (see my posts), then if the Aussies follow south and panic - it could be a nice exploit. Remember your risk controls please.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
AUDCAD Short Opportunity Past few weeks the AUD pairs have tanked. We believe the AUDCAD will continue to drop after it breaks its current support level of 0.9703 area to drop down to next key support level of 0.9353 price area.
AUDUSD; Short SetupIf 0.758 support is broken, then the multi-month up-slopping channel is broken and a good short opportunity arise.
Good luck,
Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
