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ASX dragged lower by the DowThe Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely. The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour trend has favoured bearish swing traders, who could seek to fade into moves towards the 20-50 hour EMAs.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Key Observations on Xero's Journey🔰 ASX:XRO Key Observations on Xero's Journey 1. The Big Rally: June 2018 to February 2021 Growth: Xero experienced a significant rally, climbing 243% from around $46 to $158. Timeframe: The rally spanned 126 weeks (882 days). Volume: Total trading volume during this period was 361.303 million. Key Insight: This rally followed a long consolidation phase, a typical setup for strong upward momentum in stocks. 2. Support and Resistance Levels Support Zones: The $100–$110 range acted as a strong support level, with the stock bouncing multiple times before moving higher. Resistance Zones: The $171 level became a key area of resistance during its historical highs. Key Insight: Understanding historical support and resistance levels can help identify areas where stocks may reverse or consolidate. 🔰 Lessons from Xero's Stock Performance Patterns Repeat, But Not Predictably Historical performance offers valuable insights but does not guarantee future results. Always focus on the bigger picture. Volume Confirms Strength Rising volume during rallies can be a strong signal of market confidence, while declining volume might indicate weakening momentum. Support and Resistance Matter Understanding key price levels can help identify potential turning points in stock movement. Earnings Drive Volatility Always pay attention to earnings seasons as they historically trigger significant price movements. 🔰 Conclusion: What Can We Learn? Xero’s historical data tells a story of growth, retracement, and strong investor interest during key phases. By analysing these patterns, investors can better understand how price, volume, and market cycles interact. However, it’s crucial to remember that past performance is not a predictor of future results. ✅ Join the Discussion What trends or insights do you observe from Xero’s historical performance? Share your thoughts in the comments below Disc: no holding , no recommendation to buy or sell - may buy or sell without any notification , treat this post as learning only. consult with your financial advisor before taking any financial decision
ASX:XRO
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months. From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions. On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends. Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally. In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AU in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by FOREXN1
4
ASX to new highs, or fakeout in the making?The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area). A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record high. Bears could seek a move towards the 20-hour or 50-hour EMA, or bulls could wait for such a level to be respected as support before rejoining the bullish trend. *Take note that AU employment data is released in just over 1hr* MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Are The Bulls Still Up To IT?On this pair, we see that the Weekly chart is ready to resume its long held bearishness. Over the past few days, we have witnessed prices rally all the way up (a Bullish retracement inside a bearish swing), driving prices into our marked out Weekly reversal zone. As expected, the zone held, and we began to see reversals, with prices turning bearish from that point. But the thing is this, that bullish retracement on the weekly came as a result of a bullish extension on the daily chart. The pertinent question before us now is whether or not the bulls of the daily chart will be able to come in strongly enough to contain the current bearish push and hold prices in a bullish trend. Here is my take. It is common knowledge that the lower time frames move in consonance with (in obedience to) the higher timeframes... lol (the word "obedience" got me laughing for a bit. But let's cyt back to the chase) Now we have seen the daily printing a bullish narrative. But we are all expected to believe that the bullish trend sustained by the daily has the primary intention and purpose of driving prices in the direction of the higher timeframe, which in this case is the weekly chart. We therefore believe that all of that bullish push was to drive prices into the Weekly reversal zone. With that being fulfilled, price is expected to move in the direction of the Weekly over and above the daily direction. This is the regular theory and philosophy of the forex market. But will that narrative hold sway this time around? We see prices now dipping bearish. This is an extension for the Weekly chart, and at the same time a retracement on the daily bullish swing. In the event that the Daily zone holds (which is less likely), we will expect to see prices reverse bullish, begin totally and move to take out Daily liquidity target above. This will result in a deeper retracement inside the Weekyl zone, or a complete breach of the zone. Where the zone is breached, we will look to see the market print higher prices and go all the way up. On the other hand, if the bearish perspective of the Weekly holds, we will expect to see the Daily zone breached, at which point we will expect prices to dip towards the weekly liquidity target below. So guys, who do you thing is gonna win the day, the Bulls of the Daily or the Bears of the Weekly? share your thoughts in the comment section
Short
by PanzyPips
Aussie Dollar expected to fatten against the China Yuan The Australia / China economic dependency & reliance runs almost as deep as Australia's ongoing and upbeat relationship with the USA. Australia is where it is in only 300 years of white settlement because of its strong resources sector and China is one of its biggest consumers. Recent stimulus to prop-up a failing economy the past few years in China should restore this ying-yang existence and a secured one for the 2 nations over the next little while. Technically, you can see the path of the 2 currency's on the weekly chart. On the weekly it looks to be a tight consolidated range which will only serve to aid its breakout soon before traders are aware and its too late to buy the Oze at the better price.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
ASX 200 futures test their luck below resistanceI see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders. ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall the record high (and over a longer timeframe than the drop) I suspect a swing high is due. Note Tuesday's doji, and subsequent price action has traded in the upper wick of that doj. A resistance cluster hovers around 7873 - 7900, and we favour fading into any moves towards it with a stop above 7700. Bears could target just above 7700 for a downside target.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
1
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy. Economic Impact Assessment A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below: Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index. Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller. Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers. Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks. Implications for the S&P/ASX 200 The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. Historical Precedent While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods. Conclusion A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
ASX:XJOShort
by signalmastermind
ASX 200 hints at Turnaround TuesdayStock markets took quite the beating on Monday on fears of a US recession, and speculation that the Fed may be forced to cut rates as soon as next week. A stronger-than-expected ISM services report slowed the bleeding before Wall Street indices recouped some of their pre-session losses. Nikkei futures have since risen 10% from Monday's low, which could bode well for the ASX 200. SPI 200 futures saw a false break of the April low and held above the Feb low. A bullish divergence has formed on the 1-hour chart and prices are trying to hold above the weekly S3 pivot. Dips towards 7500 could appeal to countertrend trend for a move up towards 7700.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
1
ASX 200 futures hints at another leg higherThe sharp fall from its record high remains the dominant feature on the daily ASX 200 futures chart. Whilst this is likely to suppress appetite for risk for some time, Tuesday's bullish hammer suggests bears are in need of a break. The false break of the April low has been followed by a higher low and higher high on the 1-hour chart. Prices are now trying to form another higher low, so dips look appealing for bullish setups down to 7555. 7700 is the next upside target near the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, although there is also a resistance cluster between 7767 to 7794 which also seems reachable. Whether it can extend such a move really depends on appetite for risk elsewhere.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
1
ASX 200 bulls eye 8000The ASX 200 futures contract (SPI 200) snapped a 3-day losing streak overnight, and with Wall Street trying to shed last week's losses and the Nikkei and Hang Seng finding support, we suspect a bounce could be due for the ASX today. The daily chart found support at the 20-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot and closed back above the May high. It is now within 1-2 day's trade form the 8k level. The 1-hour chart shows a liquidity gap between 7950 - 8000, and with bullish momentum behind it we could find that area acts as a magnet to fill the gap towards 8000. Bulls could seek dips back towards the May high for longs up to 8000, although without a fresh catalyst it seems like a tempting area for bulls to book profits.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
2
ASX 200 futures looks set for a bullish breakoutThe SPI 200 shows an established uptrend on the 1-hour chart, with a recent bullish engulfing candle forming a higher low around the 20-bar EMA and closing above a retracement line. The RSI remains above 50 to show positive momentum, and there are no obvious signs of a topping pattern forming on the chart. A break above 7907 assumes bullish continuation and brings the 7936 high into focus, a break above which opens up a run for the all-time high. Bulls could seek dips within the recent bullish engulfing candle whilst prices remain above its low, in anticipation of a break above 7907.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
SPI 200 hints at bullish breakoutPrices have been coiling on the daily chart to form a potential bullish pennant / symmetrical triangle, which hints at further gains. RSI (14) remains over 50 on the daily chart, and volumes were lower during the consolidation to show lack of conviction from bears, sellers stepping in at the cycle highs. The 1-hour chart shows prices retracing lower after RSI (2) reached overbought, alongside a bearish pinbar at the cycle high. We're now looking for price to either hold above the triangle breakout level, or for RSI (2) to reach oversold whilst prices hold above the high-volume node. From here, the bias is for a rise to 7850m or the weekly pivot point just above the high-volume node at 7866.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
AUDUSD - Bullish Outlook (ICT)Here is my outlook on AUDUSD. Price recently got rejected at a Monthly Bisi which is also a Weekly Orderblock, and started to shape some up movement. My bias for this to continue is that buyside trendline liquidity residing above, coupled with the significance of a higher timeframe Discount Array. On the lower timeframes there is more buyside liquidity engineered on the way up, along with some whipsawing price action which signifies to me a shakeout before displacing to the upside. This is just a prediction. Price can very well make another low first to around the 0.6425 level first, and if it does that and displaces one more time back to the upside, I will feel very confident in that narrative. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
AUD/USD Shows Strength Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Techn...AUD/USD Shows Strength Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Technical Signals In a surprising display of resilience, the AUD/USD pair traded higher on Monday, rebounding from the 50% Fibonacci level following a significant pullback to the support level at 0.65250. This rebound was reinforced by the dynamic bullish trendline, which has proven to be a reliable support. Notably, the price surged above the 200 moving average, while the RSI moved out of oversold conditions. Geopolitical Developments: Despite heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger US Dollar (USD), as evidenced by a tragic drone attack near a US outpost in Jordan, the Australian pair exhibited notable strength. The incident, which resulted in casualties among US service members, has prompted the Biden administration to consider specific plans for a response, potentially including strikes into Iran. Market Dynamics: Australia's money market remains stable, buoyed by upbeat crude oil prices. The AUD's resilience could also be attributed to news of additional stimulus measures by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Bulletin reflects a moderation in businesses' price growth expectations over the past six months, though prices are anticipated to stay above the RBA's inflation target range of 2.0–3.0%. Despite this, the RBA is expected to lower borrowing costs later this year. Upcoming Economic Indicators: Investors eagerly await Tuesday's Australian Retail Sales, anticipating a decline of 0.7% compared to the previous increase of 2.0%. Additionally, attention is focused on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Forecast: Despite the complex geopolitical landscape and economic indicators, our forecast for AUD pairs remains bullish. We are eyeing a take profit at the 0.6700 level, aligning with the positive technical signals and the overall strength exhibited by the Australian Dollar. Traders are advised to stay attentive to evolving market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly. Our preference Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
Is the ASX 200 about to roll over?Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms. A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're to see even just a 10% drop from the 2024 high it could, the index will find itself back beneath 7000. But if bears really get their way for another -16% drop, the ASX will be back around 6400. What could make that happen? Well, markets have been aggressively pricing in 5 - 7 Fed cuts this year which may not arrive. And if the wheels fall off the global economy to justify said cuts, that could also be bad for the stock market. So bulls may want to ask themselves if they want to be along at these levels, where the market is yet to every trade above it. As we could be in for a deeper pullback at the very least.
CITYINDEX:AUSTRALIA200CFDShort
by CityIndex
Time to enter ASX:CSL ⁉️Last week, CSL management received positive feedback and the stock is currently in a base. While there is no confirmation of a new trend, the risk-reward ratio is favorable to add a small amount and let the market guide for further additions. I will only add up to 50% of my position in the low base, so if the stock fails to reach its all-time high, I will still have some gains to take away. The stock symbol is $ASX:CSL. Disclosure: I am investing in my super account for the first trance  I cannot provide any recommendations to buy or sell. It is essential for you to conduct your own research.
ASX:CSLLong
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
1