S&P 500 vs. select global stock markets - focus post Aug 2020S&P 500 vs. select global equity markets - focus on the period since Aug 2020... compared consistently in $USD terms via US listed ETFs - United Kingdom EWU, Russia ERUS, Brazil EWZ, Hong Kong EWH, India INDA, Australia EWA, New Zealand ENZL - bonus comparisons to Gold, AUD/USD, RUB/USD.
Australia
DE GREY MINING RUN TO CONTINUE?DE GREY MINING (ASX:DEG) has just had a much needed rest. After 8 months and +3000% increase its well deserved after its Pilbara WA "Mallina" Project surpassed 2.2Moz Gold Projection. Sitting 50KM south of one of the most ideal ore exportation capitals in the Southern Hemisphere (Port Hedland WA) it's easy to see why De Greys is going from Strength to Strength, and they haven't even scratched the surface with multiple Gold anomalies yet to be fully explored.
Technicals: Area of Interest approaching...
Fib Retracement Golden Pocket Near, recently broken .382 level.
Uptrend Intact.
Has already hit Major Trend Based Fib Retracement target previously for +170%.
Healthy retrace almost complete IMO.
Ichimoku still intact and Bullish.
MACD starting to round anticipating the turn BUT not confirmed.
RSI starting to flatten having just crossed the 50.
Stochastic indicating oversold region.
Approaching MA50 looking for reaction.
Some Fundamental Highlights..
Mallina Project quickly turning into Tier 1 Project +2.2 Moz Gold Deposit.
Project location among the best in the World.
Stable Cash Runway + $28million CASH (30 June 2020) & Debt Free.
With such a rapid growth it's hard not to keep an eye on the rising star De Grey Mining, BUT I'm more interested in future projections of Gold consumption and what this means for the Sector. With global demand predicted to rise by 2.1% annually and Australia set to be the No.1 Gold Producer in 2021 it's a good sign for the Domestic players with production set to rise by 9% 2020-2021.
These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTA. Happy Hunting!!!
ridethepig | Australian YieldsThe gridlock continues with CB's keeping Yields interlocked for as long as possible. An attack on the highs is inevitable if you ask me, sellers base is just not strong enough.
📌 Recession Strategy
US will lead for the purpose of these flows, buyers may still make concessions and allow a retest of 0.82% lows but anything else looks very difficult. The counter-play here to the topside will cause severe damage to the economy as inflation enters back into the game.
I will be doing a detailed post on inflation as there have been a number of questions coming in around how it will develop. We need to keep tracking the supply side to really get into the heart of the matter. The post is going to cover much more about the reversal of globalisation , government intervention, more protectionism, productivity taking another hammer via covid, less tech and etc and how to work with these moves.
The Reject Shop - $2 stock or $10 + stockTechincals - Bullish flag pattern has formed, I'm waiting to enter once uptrend continues outside of flag, or bullish candle confirmation.
Fundamentals - Some new/key product offerings - reported major overhaul via a partnership with Tesco. The TRS growth story could be just starting and ripe to take off. Additionally, the last time we headed into this type of macro environment (post GFC) TRS share price was very bullish.
DXB - setting up nicely - BullishKey Technicals - flag/ascending triangle, entry on breakout.
Key Fundamentals - the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) through the
Biomedical Translation Bridge (BTB) program is supporting development and clinical evaluation of
DMX-200 as a new treatment for respiratory complications as a result of COVID-19 in global clinical
study with a potential fast track pathway to clinical practice.
XJO or SP200 about to decide where to go🚨🥵🚨AS i mentioned last time that XJO was fighting the 200MA that was aligned with the 0.618 golden fib, apparently it lost the battle and decided to consolidate below it.
But does t look like it is going to make one major decision which will be written down in history? lets dig deep and analyze.
XJO after failing to conquer the 200MA has been shy and it even failed its 50MA and now it is fighting to stay close to the 6k level.
However, considering the massive selloffs on Wall Street, I think it is about to make one major move. Looking at that chart it is almost writing a curve as if it want to fall below towards the 5700 which is a strong support.
I think we may see the price testing that level in coming days and if that level fail, my friends, I see XJO going deep down.
However, not all hope is lost, at the moment it looks like it is in massive consolidation zone which, if it holds , can be considered as a huge bull flag.
Most short term indicators like PSAR, LSMA, QLSMA look bearish so far.
As I said last time, this may not be the best time to buy, better wait for the market direction then enter the market. But for those who ride the waves, they may find it interesting to but the support and sell the resistance.
I will keep you posted of any change in this market. Stay safe. Dont forget to smack the likes.
XTF
The few sectors preventing the ASX from slumping throughout Aug(SEE prior "Idea" for Sector Indices vs ASX All Ordinaries Index showing earlier deterioration of the market throughout August ) Here are the few sectors preventing the ASX from slumping throughout August 2020: which are the midcaps of the ASX Midcap 50 Index, and including Technology XTX, Consumer Discretionary XDJ, Real Estate XRE and Industrials XNJ.
Sector Indices vs ASX All Ords show earlier Aug deteriorationSector Indices vs ASX All Ordinaries Index show earlier deterioration of the market throughout August (whereas XJO only starts to deteriorate from Aug 28): in the largest 20 companies of the XTL index, in Communications XTJ, Resources XJR, Materials XMJ, Financials XXJ, Consumer Staples XSJ, Utilities XUJ. See next "Idea" for the sectors that prevented the XJO from slumping early.
High probability - Bullishness to continue - Ascending triangleFrom a technical point of view the RBL chart has a bullish ascending triangle breakout. From the Fundamental side the CV19 tailwinds are extreme for RBL with the online retail. Additionally, the most recent report highlight being sales of 26 million in masks, you would think that trend continues to grow for the forseeable.
ASX:FXL hit by a smooth Criminal 😫🥵👿🚨ASX:FXL has been the dog of the year in the BNPL domain. It has shown no willing to follow its counterparts when it comes to rallying to the moon. However, leaving aside all these moonboys dreams, lets see what the technical analysis has hidden inside the charts.
I tried to add few labels to the chart to make it self explainable but I cant miss to point the following:
- A rejection to a key point in any market 200MA
- An attempt to flip PSAR that worked but the flip level was quickly rejected
- An attempt to break out of the pennant structure that was immediately rejected
- an epic rejection volume.
To me with these points I believe bears are still in control of this stock and until I see signs of breakout I cant tell anyone to buy. For those holding it you can hold as the structure is not broken. The price may be under pressure in next week but until the anchoring point is not broken you can hold.
Keys point to watch out on this stock:
- price breaking out of 1.320$ level
- price breaking above the pennant
- price breaking the 200MA and closing a week candle above that level.
I will keep an eye on this stock for you and get you alerted when things change. Have a good weekend and keep smashing the likes.
XTF.
AUD/USD Is Simply SMASHING All Zones of ResistanceIn this analysis I will walk you through the major areas from a technical point of view that you should be focusing on when trading AUD/USD.
The trend is insane at the moment on AUD/USD. For a really long time we've seen nothing but an unbelievable surge in the price. It seems simple looking back at the chart, but trading with trends is actually really difficult.
The problem is that you want to buy low and sell high. But if an asset is upwards trending, it is extremely difficult to buy low. In fact, you are almost always buying too high.
I am not a big fan of buying after a bunch of green candles, with one exception: resistance breakout. That's why in this analysis I suggest a long position even though the price is already relatively high.
Another point of view here to look at it is that since the resistance is broken, the price is now trading near a newly found support. Through the concepts of S/R flip (www.100-eyes.com) we can learn that old resistance can become new support.
When the price is near a support, the price is low. When the price is near a resistance, the price is high. That's why we can still enter here even though the price is relatively upwards.
For an exit strategy, we can take a look at the older zones of resistance as in the shorter time frames we cannot see any other point of reference. I used the zone of December '18 here for logical exit.
Also, you can decide to go for another technique where you continuously increase your stop loss and try to ride the trend for as long as possible.
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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
XJO aka ASX200 attempting to break the 200MA XJO aka ASX200 is trying to reach one milestone that has been thing of the past since the last plunge in early March 2020. is it gonna succeed and fly higher to the moon or this is gonna be a rejection and send us back to the abyss. As TA lets dive deep into the charts and analyze.
From last few days XJO has come up with strength trying to defy the bears traps that wanted to push down down into the abyss. But at the moment the price is at a critical point: 200MA which has been historically the separation line between bull and bear market. Does XJO has strength to break that magic line and go up towards the 7k levels? I have been keeping an eye on this index to know the directions of the whole Australia stock market as we know it. Below are the highlight of the bulls strength vs Bears strength:
- 50MA acting as support: we saw last time price bounced on this magic line
- PSAR flipped to the upside which is inherently bullish
- Price above the Golden Fibonacci. Hopefully it will act as support
- Price above historic resistance/support at 5969
- Price attempting to break 200MA this is bullish if and only if the price rips up that 200MA.
- Bears have one point too, the uptrend line has been broken few days back and it may be hard to reclaim it probably we will have to draw a new uptrend line.
For those late to the party and who want to go long better wait for the price to close above the 200MA at least 1 day then try to get in with tight stop loss.
I will keep you informed as this market keeps swinging up and down.
Stay safe and dont forget to smash the liked. I am scanning the market for the next stock of the week as I have been giving you the best of the bests so far.
XTF.