Get started

Australia

Trend change is coming. Entry technicsThe Australian dollar rallied above 0.72 and was immediately rejected. But it still holds the above the daily trendline. Potentially this rally can be extended to 0.73. Buyers have to protect their positions with tight stops. Commercials (based on COT) keep adding to their short positions, the cycle is turning to the downside. That makes me believe a selloff is coming. Failure to make a new high or breakdown below the daily trendline is a sign of trend change.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
PBoC, Inflation and Jobless Claims – Week aheadThe markets continue to grapple with the immediate effects of the Coronavirus. The second wave in pockets of the world has forced cities to take active measures to control the virus. Melbourne, Australia has gone into a secondary lockdown while Florida and Los Angeles see cases surge, with the Mayor of Los Angeles stating that the city is “on the brink” and a Democratic representative from Florida reports the outbreak is “totally out of control.” Here is your week ahead Monday, 20 July – Peoples Bank of China Interest Rate decision China’s Central Bank, the Peoples Bank of China has been wary of cutting interest rates, even during the peak of the pandemic. Ma Jun, a PBOC adviser, stated in early April, “The PBOC doesn’t use its bullets all at once. China has plenty of room in monetary policy.” The PBOC has kept interest rates at 3.85%, after dropping it 30 basis points from 4.05% in April. However, forecasts and estimates expect the PBoC to keep rates as is at 3.85% this week ahead. Tuesday, 21 July – Inflation rate YoY Bank of Japan With 660 new cases of the Coronavirus yesterday, Japan has struggled to keep ahead of the virus after the world praised it for its lighter approach to restrictions. However, that approach, as seen similarly from Australia, has not bode well for the country. Japan has seen triple-digit daily increases for the whole month of July. This has caused consumption and spending to decrease dramatically. Analysts predict an inflation rate of 0.1%; however, there is a high chance that this may be pushed to the downside, which may put downward pressure on the JPY. Tuesday, 21 July – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes Australia is continuing to grapple with the effects of the Coronavirus, with Melbourne being put back into lockdown and the state of Victoria imposing mandatory mask restrictions. With RBA minutes earlier in the year having a tone of optimism, likely, that tone will not continue here. The second lockdown is a massive blow to the country, socially and economically. The Trans-Tasman bubble between New Zealand and Australia has been delayed, with economic activity in the state of Victoria plummeting. We may see Aussie weakness against its New Zealand counterpart as Australia reels back their reopening. Thursday 21st July – Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) Canada continues to post double-digit daily Coronavirus cases as they, too, implemented a looser lockdown restriction like Japan and Australia. We saw a drop in the CPI from March to April as citizens decreased their spending. We saw a slight increase in the Month of May, however, analysts expect to stabilize around 137 for the month of June. Thursday 23 July, US Initial Jobless Claims With Initial Jobless Claims posting the smallest decline since March last week, the US jobs market is showing a slight rebound. However, we are all aware of the current situation with the Coronavirus cases in the US. Florida and Los Angeles are posting daily record numbers every week, while President Donald Trump focuses on reopening the economy and the US-China trade deals. I expect this number to slowly creep up as the full effects the second wave of the Coronavirus becomes evident. Analysts predict Jobless Claims to drop to 1.29m from 1.3m previously. We have seen this mindset in the market, which discounts negative news and rallies on positive news. This is partially due to liquidity propping up many markets. Investors and traders must take this into account when placing trades.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
Trans-Tasman bubble a dream?There have been talks for a Trans-Tasman bubble since the Coronavirus lockdowns in March. However, different approaches from New Zealand and Australia have made this reality more a far fetched dream. Trans-Tasman bubble would greatly help both economies Although both countries would benefit from the trans-Tasman bubble, New Zealand would arguably benefit greater due to 5.8% of GDP being attributable to Tourism. Over 180,000 individuals are employed due to tourism and make up about 7.5% of the workforce in New Zealand. However, as much as a trans-Tasman bubble is encouraged, the difference in approaches has made it challenging to implement. With New Zealand digging their heels and imposing one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, while Australia gave their citizens relative freedom, only imposing social distancing guidelines. The contrasting methods have become evident – with Australia still making records in daily Coronavirus cases, while New Zealand consistently records single-digit case numbers. Victoria, Australia, reported 428 new Coronavirus cases on Friday, making it the state’s largest daily increase since the pandemic. This is on the back of the Prime Ministers’ Scott Morison and Jacinda ADern opening up travel between the two countries. Scott Morison stated that “she raised the very issue with me, and we’re progressing those discussions.” However, he also stated that it is “going to be a little be moderated for what’s happening in Victoria,” insinuating a possible exclusion for citizens that live in Victoria. Melbourne, a major city in Victoria, recently hit 5000 Coronavirus cases as the city re-enters a second lockdown. Trans-Tasman may move the needle in the markets The AUD/NZD depreciated to parity in the middle of March as risk currencies dived – with the NZD showing some strength due to New Zealand’s efficient suppression of the Coronavirus. However, the Australia dollar has since rebounded, trading at the 1.067 level. There may be an argument for the Australian dollar is slightly overvalued compared to the New Zealand dollar as New Zealand’s economy has been restarting without any relative setbacks. However, as demand for commodities such as oil and iron rises across the world of which Australia is a major exporter, demand for the Australian dollar may increase, strengthening relative to the NZD. However, the significant indices for Australia and New Zealand may show outperformance, rewarding New Zealand in their Coronavirus suppression. Since their March lows, the NZX 50 has outperformed the Australian 200 Index by 4%. If New Zealand continues to outperform with regards to the Coronavirus relative to Australia, we may see a good opportunity to shorten the ASX and go long the NZX. If both countries took the same approach, I believe there would have been a trans-Tasman bubble sooner. Australian Tourism Industry Council Executive Director Simon Westway stated that “Australia needs to get back on its feet before Trans-Tasman bubble,” and that Australia needs to open its domestic borders between states before opening up to New Zealand. Jacinda Adern took a stab at Australia’s Coronavirus response, stating on video that “If Australia wants a whole country trans-Tasman bubble, we’ll be waiting.”
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDCAD Sell +150 to 500 Pip Opportunity AUDCAD is overbought and looking for a large downward movement. Short-term we are looking at 150 Pips to the downside Long-term we are looking at 300 to 500 pips Indicators: Look left rule- If you look at history, the current area where this currency has been a strong pivotal point, dating a few years. This is now acting as Resistance. Daily and Weekly time frames are overbought (Larger time frames dictate main direction) Conditions to Enter: Close of daily candlestick under the current up trend line, this will confirm a break to the downside. Entry: 1. Bear candle close under up trendline 2. Retest of up trend line on the backside. TP1 at next support TP2 at main weekly support SL if prior high is broken Good luck trading! Charles V CVFX Management Trading made simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
ridethepig | Dovish RBNZ Pricing & Commodity Shortages📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On the monetary side, the correct flow to shelter from if things materially worsen (sadly looks inevitable) is the dovish RBNZ. After the latest meetings they have opened the window for a game changer on the stimulus front coming in August (via lowering domestic borrowing costs). Consider the situation on the AUD side of the equation: Commodity shortages are entering back into play via the Covid shock which is a prelude towards the monetary crisis. Gold, Iron Ore, Copper and etc all look set for further advance; it will keep the basis for some action to the topside in AUD via collateral. Here tracking closely 0.677x in AUDUSD and 0.637x in NZD as the line in sand for the cross. Look to ride AUDNZD up towards the 1.12 macro targets. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
AU200Welcome to this analysis on AU200. Australian stocks have been in a bullish trend since March. Looking at the 12HR chart, It looks like it just broke out of a month-long symmetrical triangle consolidation which should act as a continuation pattern in this case. The target of the pattern is around 6380$ as long as the price holds above the support of the pattern. There is a long term horizontal resistance and an Order Block around the target zone in the 6300$ to 6400$ which has confluence with the patterns target. The price can get to those levels as long as it stays above 5900$. This trade idea has 4.5 Rewards to the Risk ratio. Good luck trading.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by Trader_Shayan
4
AUD/USD Started its Trend Reversal - Perfect Time to go SHORTIn this technical analysis on AUD/USD I will walk you through the recent things that happened to this pair, and I will explain you why I think a short position is most suitable right now. Also, I will explain the most logical entry position, take profit and stop loss. On AUD/USD we have seen a fantastic recovery since the corona low at the end of March. Within just 3 months it grew a staggering 27%. However, now that it has reached the 0.700 level again we do see clear resistance. This is a logical place to expect resistance as the price showed resistance here as well before. Since the first small bounce already happened, we can now confirm this resistance level. Together with a double-top like pattern we can expect the price to decrease again. This confluence of trend reversal and horizontal resistance creates a high probability entry for a short position here on AUD/USD. For the entry position I suggest to simply enter as soon as possible since we have already seen the confirmation of the resistance zone. For the take profit, the most logical place to put your first target is around the .65000 level as this is where the price struggled earlier. For the stop loss, I would suggest a place slightly above the current resistance, for instance around 0.71000. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
7
Trade Idea on AU200 (ASX) by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart a) The price is on an ascending Wedge b) Currently, we can observe a clear corrective Structure (Yellow lines) c) The next resistance zone we have is a weekly one (light blue rectangle) d) Based on the technical elements we have our conclusion is: If the price breaks above the corrective Structure, that will give us a high-quality scenario for long trades towards the next resistance zone e) The Risk-Reward Ratio of this trade is 1 : 2 f) We will move our stop to break even at 6200.00 WEEKLY CHART: (Understanding why we choose that target)
OANDA:AU200AUD
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
ridethepig | Australian Yields breaking out? Smells like it...I would have preferred it if Aussie Yields could have sought the break for the close last week, the decision to hold up here, rather than forcing the pass is notable that Yield curve control is really coming through. Which is an appendage to the following position in AUD: Those aiming for this macro swing position are effectively trading the artificial Fed control over USD supply side . As long as the printers are on full blast, the move from Fed towards a more lenient Yield curve control playbook will be done in broad daylight, as I have been saying for some time, they were faced with a decision as to whether they wanted a stronger currency or stronger equity market. After witnessing the Whitehouse policies being funded by Keynsian economics it is a disaster for confidence in the LONG RUN for the US. Capital is beginning to slowly migrate towards Europe and Asia. Get used to China and Russia having a larger seat at the table; hence we need to keep a close eye on Australia - China relations as the elephant in the room. What is important in the positional play is not the attack, but rather how price responds at support levels. We are wanting to only add exposure in periods of consolidation, calm waters. Do not let the loud noise and sharp spikes affect your decisiveness.
TVC:AU10YLong
by ridethepig
1