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AUDJPY Bullish Continuation?Hi All, I am intently watching the AUDJPY pair as we continue to coil up in this symmetrical triangle. This triangle is forming after a nice bullish divergence on the 1hr timeframe. Keep an eye on this pair as we enter the final stages of what looks like a bullish continuation pattern.. However, Australia have just announced a $130B stimulus package for business and employees struggling during the COVID-19 pandemic, what does this pair do from here? Australia is due for the HIA New Home Sales report tomorrow morning so we could see this act as a moving factor during this crucial time for this pair, if we get negative news could we see the Aussie dollar lose value against the Yen? Potential manipulation (bull trap) ahead.. Keep alert and trade safe! -- MNLZ
by MinimalFiat
5
Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 . Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally. But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces. This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out 28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks. Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
ASX:XJOShort
by TomUnderwood
1
Dark Times For The AUDLooking at my chart, it's clear that since the beginning of the chart to Dec '13 has been in an overall ascending wedge with two notable deviations. One deviation in 2000 where a short sharp descending wedge took the AUD to the lowest point in 2001 before finally getting back to the ascending wedge by October 2003. In 2008 it again briefly dropped during the GFC and quickly by 2009 returned to the ascending wedge pattern. By 2013 the AUD begin descending and attempting to retest what was the support line of the ascending pattern. From 2014-Now it's clear that the AUD is in a descending pattern and has broken through the support line on the Monthly candle. Where it all goes from here depends on what the Australia Federal government can do, but with the fundamentals of Australia questionable I don't have high hopes. What do I mean ? simply Australia is a wealthy country on paper, but the bulk of most peoples wealth is tied up in the value of their real estate, which has been inflated to insane levels due to access to cheap credit and very generous capital gains tax laws. Most Australians are heavily reliant on overdrafts, credit cards, store cars, finance that most simply don't hoard that much cash. Many people have gone and borrowed 100%+ the value of their properties, (I can assure you that bank valuers for real estate transactions are a fraud and they NEVER under value a property, it's an everyone wins game much like getting the real estate agent to recommend you a building inspector.) Thing is that Australia outside of exporting it's mining resources, agriculture, tourism and education doesn't actually produce or make much anymore, much of the economy revolves arounds services. Given current events with the Coronavirus epidemic and global shut down, this is going to paralyze the Australian economy if it continues for long. Back in 2008 Australia was fortunate to have a cash reserve to weather the storm, this time around they are far more vulnerable with the national wealth build on a house of cards.
Short
by th3gr3k0sLaV
7
AUDJPY Probabilities Price DirectionThis is an easy game to know how the global pandemic isn't settled yet and knowing how all big central banks honchos cooperated together to fight against this pandemic by deciding to lower OCR rates equally to combat against the corona virus. State & Europe are new continents who are for now struggling and combating strongly against this pandemic. I hope they win this battle soon but for now, commodities are hampered badly it seems a pity moment to even know how badly supply chain distortion has ruin commodities overall. Comdolls have very fewer probabilities at this hard period of time to even think that they may rise back. They need some pure remedy like " vaccine development " good reports to bring back optimistic. The move upward may only be some correction or retracement on price but it will be hard to think if it is an overall reversal in trend. We all know oil has been the most interesting commodity lately and knowing how it heavily plunged due to the pandemic case so I have not much good faith over comdolls bullish sentiment at least for now. One interesting thing which I would like to talk about is how New Zeland trying to combat strongly lately knowing how it cuts the rate below RBA (which was emergency cut in the weekend, Sunday) seeing that RBA has still room, for now, to get equal to its neighboring country which probably is a case market participant may price in lower for further remaining rooms for cuts (still 0.25 bp room left comparing to other). And lastly, how could I close my idea without mentioning our China which plays the main role over this global pandemic case. If you knew the more china in hurt or the escalation of spreading the virus rate and death counts then remember it will equally hurt Australia and Newzealand businesses as well so keep in that mind. Be sensitive over global risk news updates. This is all some beyond technical analysis thoughts from my side to this pair and if you find this idea valuable don't forget to support me with providing a thumps up! Peace :)
Short
by Anatta0
3
Austral Gold: Junior's Time to ShineLooking at Junior Gold as the next big market to trade, obviously due to rising gold and silver prices, but I like this company for a few reasons. Obviously being in South America the local currencies are trash (EM FX at record lows) so costs will likely remain low, especially if oil remains relatively cheap. Recently margins have begun to grow due to rising gold and I think there are companies like Austral that are in an interesting position because they are too small to be bought buy the large ETF's due to their purchase rules, yet they are unlocking significant value for shareholders. Currently the company is raising capital for drilling/exploration activities at their existing mines at $0.08 offering only to existing shareholders, so I don't think the dilution will really hit the market. I think this offers a trade opportunity with an interesting risk/reward profile. As long as this negative-interest bond madness continues we can expect gold to continue rallying higher, which means the margins at the miners will swell! ETF's can't touch these until they get bigger so the time to aquire shares is now before the gold market as a whole is revalued much higher than it is today. Highlights: - Existing Guanaco/Amancaya operations providing cashflow near Yamana Gold's El Penon deposits ( June 2019 AISC < $1000, gold at over $1500 currently) - Exploration potential in both Chile and Argentina (existing reserves assayed at $1300 Gold) - Rising silver prices while Casposo silver operation on-hold (reserves in ground gaining value) - Austral can produce lots of silver, meaning a big drop in the gold/silver ratio will leverage the margin expansion faster than gold producers alone. The company has some debt, which obviously poses a hurdle, but repayments are going well with the recent increased cashflow. Mineral reserves need to expand so expect drilling and associated costs, there is a deal offering to existing shareholders to fund drilling this year. Looking technically there have been 2 other historic buying opportunities at these levels, and the market seems to be close to a potential breakout of the falling wedge pattern. If you zoom in on the last year the stock has traded in a range and despite the thin volume there is a potential cup + handle formation holding just below the 0.09 level. I'm obviously bullish and have a long position. Please comment if you have any thoughts on AGD/AGLD. GLTA.
ASX:AGDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4409175
17
Australian Equities Unwind We're calling it. Australian Equities have now recovered losses stemming from the 2008 Subprime Crisis sell off and are now at ATHs supported by large corporate buybacks amidst moderate earnings growth. Our view - Weaker relative EPS on the back of domestic bushfires, lowered Chinese demand and corporate buyback continuity. - Lowe & Co running out of monetary stimulus and room to push asset prices higher. We see an unwind on any hawkish commentary out of the RBA. We see weak price momentum and signs that price is now overbought and due in for a positional correction. We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
ASX:XJOShort
by Portier
5
Higher high and low for AUDSGDJust a casual update on an earlier analysis posted: Presently biased towards bullish. AUD appears to have find support above the blue line -- previously acting resistance of the steeper downward channel since Dec 2018. The pink lines forms the gentler downward channel started since 2017, expected to act as resistance levels for AUD ahead against SGD. Expect AUD to be rejected at around 0.95-0.97 SGD to retest the support. If AUD is able to pierce above 0.97 SGD and finds support, a follow-up pump is expected perhaps to ~0.99 SGD at the 38.2% Fib level. If AUD is not able to find support at ~0.93 SGD, then expect a continuation of the descending channel (defined by the two blue lines), and expect price to go down and revisit 0.9 SGD.
Long
by cybernetwork
Weekly Analysis on AU200AUD / ASX 200 by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your setup. Main Items we can see on the Weekly Chart: a)The price is against a significant reversal zone with the possibility of making a double top pattern. b)At the same time, the price is inside an ascending channel since 2009 and currently is against the upper trendline. c)If these two technical points work as resistance for the price, we expect a bearish movement towards the lower trendline of the ascending channel. d)This Chart works with an analysis purpose only. If you want to develop a setup based on this, you should go to lower timeframes such as one day / 4hs and define your Entry filters there.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
Australia! A Bogans ParadiseHello Traders, Looking at the chart we can see price has been in a well defined channel for the last 10 years. It has taken that long for the price to crawl back up to the previous 2007 top and I mean crawl. From an Elliot Wave perspective these are some unhealthy looking waves with deep retracements each time basically invalidating the EW principle. Either way, you can see some kind of 5 waves impulse pattern. The price reached the previous market top which just so happened to coincide with the top of the channel. The price has tried again to push higher but failed and now looks like a double top and is printing bearish divergence on the RSI. Can they just keep pushing this with QE? I think we all know by now the economy is floating on a debt time bomb. Australia's housing market is one of the biggest bubbles out there which has been fueled through terrible financial practices. I think this economy is going Down Under! Bearish on stralia.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by WickHunter
Buying AUDNZD Aggressively !!A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again. On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020: For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here: ….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side: Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets: Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
Long
by ridethepig
3
Getting ready for the Bank of Canada decisionAs we announced, the demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly this week, which provoked both an increase in gold quotes and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. And if the reason for this was an increase in tariffs on imports to the United States of aluminium and steel from Argentina and Brazil on Monday, then on Tuesday Trump intimidated to introduce an additional 15% of tariffs on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 160 billion on December 15. At the same time, he added that he was not in a hurry and the best time to conclude a trade deal was generally after the 2020 elections. Of course, Trump should not be taken seriously, such his comments are a clear attempt to force China to be more accommodating in the negotiations. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors can be understood. Given that gold may easily grow (50-70 dollars per ounce), it is likely that yesterday's growth is only the beginning. So we continue to recommend looking for points of purchase for safe-haven assets. It is worth noting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the rate unchanged, which is generally a positive sign for the Australian dollar. Although its growth potential so far seems limited, it could still grow (50-70 pips), especially against the background of a weak dollar. US employment data from ADP traditionally published on the eve of official statistics is what we are waiting for. Although the level of correlation between ADP and NFP data is insignificant, strong deviations of the data from forecasts may well be flustrating to the markets. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. We expect the current status quo to be saved. But a change in the nature of the rhetoric of the Central Bank may well provoke a jump in volatility. Recall that our position on the Canadian dollar is to buy. That is, selling a USDCAD above 1.33 is, in our opinion, a great trading idea. The oil market is getting ready for the OPEC meeting. Globally, we remain supporters of oil sales. But for now, until the end of the week we take a break - the meeting may well surprise, but betting on red or black is not our approach, we prefer to work with facts.
Short
by Trade24Fx