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ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig
Aussie certainty Vs Swiss uncertaintyAussi: CPI (QoQ) (Q3): weak Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable PPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct): strong ( High sensitive) Probability of rate cut: Aussie cash rate futures are showing 87% odds of the RBA staying flat for next week (Nov 5). Swiss franc: ZEW Expectations (Oct): weak KOF Leading Indicators (Oct): strong SNB's Jordan: Cites the dangers of shrinking interest rate spread Negative rates and readiness to intervene in FX still essential to keep the pressure on the franc Cannot say when Switzerland will return to a positive rate Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): strong CPI (MoM) (Oct): weak procure.ch PMI (Oct): forecast strong (due)
Long
by Anatta0
Buy the rumors sell the news. Real life example AUSSI VS LOONIEAfter last week's elections, relatively strong domestic data and perceptions of stable (or even stimulating) fiscal policies were sufficient to keep the doves in the bay for BOC and I assume loonie was performing well throughout months because this thing was already known by smart players. Most of the position was well placed in the loonie side for months by smart traders and was a " buy the rumors " case for market (hoping for steady monetary policy from the bank and rumors around buying in optimistic of BOC) and now when the actual date central bank had announced which also ended up being steady, no cut, no dovish and as expected! but market just turned opposite for the pair or we can say any pairs which have loonie as counter or base acted just opposite against the loonie and ended up being " sell the news " (even knowing it was steady release, no cut, no dovish now everything has already been priced in, juice sucked up so profit-booking by closing of position creating back new fresh demand in another side and doesn't matter what was released and what only matter was to sell on news). Priced reached in such a level where everyone fears to hold longer and where smart people thought good place to book the profit which creating good demand and is indeed in a demand level where nothing can stop from rising upward rather than falling back deep. Aussie has been doing well lately along with the EURUSD and GBPUSD and has a high potential for trending upward talking about the longer time horizon (which we can evaluate from AUDUSD performance). Oil future seems not well too and if loonie is really done, for now, juice has been sucked up months before then a pullback of this downtrend is what not a surprising thing which we may see in future days.
Long
by Anatta0
ASX listed ETF 's vs LIC 's (Listed Investmt Co.)- Global Eqs.Very large ASX listed ETF 's versus large LIC 's (Listed Investment Companies) in Global Equities - ETF (marked with stepped lines): VGS Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF, IOO iShares Global 100 ETF, MGE Magellan Global Trust - LIC: MFF (MFF Capital Investments Ltd, preciously Magellan Flagship Fund), FGG Future Generation Global Investment, PMC Platinum Capital Ltd, TGG Templeton Global Growth Fund, PIA Pengana International Equities Ltd
ASX:VGS
by dartde
GBPAUD SHORTFundamentals will create any reason to explain the technicals of the market. BREXIT, protest, etc. Being a technical trader and having a set algorithm will solve most over complicated issues to this complex market. It looks just about time for the this pair to resume its long term downtrend. I am currently in shorts, but will be adding to my position once price declines further past 1.8500 support. My overall target for this position is 400 pips to 1.81.. The market can fall further than this point, but I will have further updates once that happens.
Short
by bajapips
Australian SP200 looking for a drop. ie: short AustraliaPitchforks are handy for predicting future trend directions. The longer term has been directed by that big upward facing pitchfork over the last few years, but I have a feeling once this upper resistance level is hitexpect to see some serious headwinds. Aussie bond yields are dropping like rocks at the moment and the currency is failing against all peers. Plus every Hedgefund manager and his dog are lining up to short the Aussie housing market which is at levels that no other part of the world is experienceing. In terms of commodities, of which Australia’s economy is made up of the exports thereof, all are dropping except for the one that is most crucial; iron ore. However, I cant see how the price of this can remain high for too much longer. If a drop happens there expect a rough landing for Australia; if im not mistaken about 40% of Australia’s economy is based on iron ore exports to china, and a further 30% of the economy after that is the housing market. So looking back at the technicals, if this peak is not to turn into support, I’m tipping a drop and then a fall in line with that smaller pitchfork. Trade accordingly.
FX:AUS200Short
by MadButcherWA
CBA.ASX finally giving inFrom everything I’ve read over the years commonwealth bank has been a widow maker for many traders looking to short. I almost bought some $65 put options earlier this year which would have expired in October. Lucky me! Any way, looks like this may finally be it. To me it looks like a big tripple top has been out in here. With the real estate market in Australia easing up a little and commbank being so heavily exposed to the housing market any dip will ravage them. Keeping in mind we have a prime minister who has taken a page out of draghis book looking to do what ever it takes to keep the Aussie housing bubble blowing. Circled in green are our three tops. It’s also important to note the 200 weekly MA has just punched through the 20MA. There are also two lower lows as valley between our tops. A break below $70 will be the final bell.
ASX:CBAShort
by MadButcherWA
Update AUDUSD This is referring to initial AUDUSD plan (below) RBA was less dovish than what the "market" expected. Technically, i was hoping the price would go up, which it did, and tap into chunks of buy orders. I am still bearish the Aussie in spite of that RBA statement. Even if his words had much more weight than just a spike reaction (in truth, it was an opportunity to load positions from the bank, the liquidity run), I THINK (an opinion, don't need your bark as if I am saying it like its fact) its priced in already. I could be wrong and I don't care. I will react what the chart is telling me. And the reaction would be a bearish signal at any point of the day, I will short AUDUSD since price have gone into the minimal point for me to short. (refer to the initial post) There is no risk event for Australia, HOWEVER, there is a rate decision from the RBNZ which could effect this pair via AUDNZD.
Short
by sufiansaid
A2 Milk - Confirmed H&S I reported earlier in the month that A2 Milk was showing a good formation of a head and shoulders pattern. This week we had a confirmed breakout of the neckline, here is my complete analysis. Price has fallen and closed below 30EMA (weekly). Price has fallen and closed below 200EMA (daily). CCI indicator(daily) is reading 222, which is a sign of strength to the downside. Mansfield Relative Strength (XAO)(daily) is below zero showing A2M is under performing the All Ords. Price has closed below Neckline of Head and shoulder pattern for 2 periods (confirmation). Target price on the down side is roughly $10.7, using a 30EMA weekly as exit once price closes below on weekly time frame. If you enjoyed this idea, please subscribe for more technical analysis in the future. Disclaimer - This in not financial advise and may not fit your financial needs, do you own analysis before investing any of your money or seek advice from a qualified financial advisor.
ASX:A2MShort
by IRApTOIR
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURAUD 19 September 2019Yesterday's trading range was 63 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 114 pips. I am expecting a price expansion today and I am hoping the high of the week will be formed for this pair and goes on a downward move towards the weekly downside projection (the 20-week weekly range is 230 pips). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.616 -1.620 and when price enters and/or breaks through it, then it will activate my bearish mode and will wait for a bearish technical signal to go short EURAUD. Moreover, price closing at these area coincides breaking the Tue-Wed high price (Phase ONe activation or "P1"). You can find the linked post to understand this concept There is a risk event for Australia today, the Job Number in less than an hour of this writing
Short
by sufiansaid
A2M Head & Shoulders - Waiting for final ConfirmationA2 Milk appears to have lost to the bears. A very distinct head and shoulders pattern has emerged although still not confirmed until neck line is broken. Taking a look at the relative strength, A2M is under performing the ASX 200 (XJO) which also is a strong bearish sign. Increased volume on negative candles and on right shoulder shows strong possibility of break down. Finally the share is closed below the 30 Week EMA, which also signifies a bear movement maybe lurking. Please note this general advice for educational purposes, carry out your own analysis before entering a position or consult a financial adviser.
ASX:A2MShort
by IRApTOIR