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Australia

Australia! A Bogans ParadiseHello Traders, Looking at the chart we can see price has been in a well defined channel for the last 10 years. It has taken that long for the price to crawl back up to the previous 2007 top and I mean crawl. From an Elliot Wave perspective these are some unhealthy looking waves with deep retracements each time basically invalidating the EW principle. Either way, you can see some kind of 5 waves impulse pattern. The price reached the previous market top which just so happened to coincide with the top of the channel. The price has tried again to push higher but failed and now looks like a double top and is printing bearish divergence on the RSI. Can they just keep pushing this with QE? I think we all know by now the economy is floating on a debt time bomb. Australia's housing market is one of the biggest bubbles out there which has been fueled through terrible financial practices. I think this economy is going Down Under! Bearish on stralia.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by WickHunter
Buying AUDNZD Aggressively !!A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again. On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020: For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here: ….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side: Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets: Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
Long
by ridethepig
3
Getting ready for the Bank of Canada decisionAs we announced, the demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly this week, which provoked both an increase in gold quotes and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. And if the reason for this was an increase in tariffs on imports to the United States of aluminium and steel from Argentina and Brazil on Monday, then on Tuesday Trump intimidated to introduce an additional 15% of tariffs on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 160 billion on December 15. At the same time, he added that he was not in a hurry and the best time to conclude a trade deal was generally after the 2020 elections. Of course, Trump should not be taken seriously, such his comments are a clear attempt to force China to be more accommodating in the negotiations. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors can be understood. Given that gold may easily grow (50-70 dollars per ounce), it is likely that yesterday's growth is only the beginning. So we continue to recommend looking for points of purchase for safe-haven assets. It is worth noting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the rate unchanged, which is generally a positive sign for the Australian dollar. Although its growth potential so far seems limited, it could still grow (50-70 pips), especially against the background of a weak dollar. US employment data from ADP traditionally published on the eve of official statistics is what we are waiting for. Although the level of correlation between ADP and NFP data is insignificant, strong deviations of the data from forecasts may well be flustrating to the markets. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. We expect the current status quo to be saved. But a change in the nature of the rhetoric of the Central Bank may well provoke a jump in volatility. Recall that our position on the Canadian dollar is to buy. That is, selling a USDCAD above 1.33 is, in our opinion, a great trading idea. The oil market is getting ready for the OPEC meeting. Globally, we remain supporters of oil sales. But for now, until the end of the week we take a break - the meeting may well surprise, but betting on red or black is not our approach, we prefer to work with facts.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURAUD and GBPAUD primed for Aussie Q3 Data.I have spoken about the EURAUD pair last week, but the trade was triggered on the break and close below the neckline. Market structure showing us a confirmed lower high. We are now back retesting the breakout zone which is normal and expected. One can enter here with a better risk vs reward, or the conservative approach would be to await a new confirmed lower high which would mean a break and close below 1.6150 zone. GBPAUD is one that has frustrated many, but the trade was NOT valid until we got the break below the flip zone/neckline. Our patience may finally be paying off. It looked like we were going to break out, but we reversed. This is another bearish sign. However, the zone of 1.8910 is still the one we are watching. This has not changed. You can see we did retest it but did not break it. It does seem like we are going to make a lower high here in a head and shoulders type pattern. Again, the lower high is only confirmed with a break below this neckline zone! We do have Q3 Aussie data today. It is a high risk event. The market expects economic growth of 0.5%. Be careful of this event. It will occur before a 4 hour evening close so this data could definitely be a catalyst for the Aussie to continue, or break out for the GBPAUD.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig
Aussie certainty Vs Swiss uncertaintyAussi: CPI (QoQ) (Q3): weak Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable PPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct): strong ( High sensitive) Probability of rate cut: Aussie cash rate futures are showing 87% odds of the RBA staying flat for next week (Nov 5). Swiss franc: ZEW Expectations (Oct): weak KOF Leading Indicators (Oct): strong SNB's Jordan: Cites the dangers of shrinking interest rate spread Negative rates and readiness to intervene in FX still essential to keep the pressure on the franc Cannot say when Switzerland will return to a positive rate Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): strong CPI (MoM) (Oct): weak procure.ch PMI (Oct): forecast strong (due)
Long
by Anatta0
Buy the rumors sell the news. Real life example AUSSI VS LOONIEAfter last week's elections, relatively strong domestic data and perceptions of stable (or even stimulating) fiscal policies were sufficient to keep the doves in the bay for BOC and I assume loonie was performing well throughout months because this thing was already known by smart players. Most of the position was well placed in the loonie side for months by smart traders and was a " buy the rumors " case for market (hoping for steady monetary policy from the bank and rumors around buying in optimistic of BOC) and now when the actual date central bank had announced which also ended up being steady, no cut, no dovish and as expected! but market just turned opposite for the pair or we can say any pairs which have loonie as counter or base acted just opposite against the loonie and ended up being " sell the news " (even knowing it was steady release, no cut, no dovish now everything has already been priced in, juice sucked up so profit-booking by closing of position creating back new fresh demand in another side and doesn't matter what was released and what only matter was to sell on news). Priced reached in such a level where everyone fears to hold longer and where smart people thought good place to book the profit which creating good demand and is indeed in a demand level where nothing can stop from rising upward rather than falling back deep. Aussie has been doing well lately along with the EURUSD and GBPUSD and has a high potential for trending upward talking about the longer time horizon (which we can evaluate from AUDUSD performance). Oil future seems not well too and if loonie is really done, for now, juice has been sucked up months before then a pullback of this downtrend is what not a surprising thing which we may see in future days.
Long
by Anatta0
ASX listed ETF 's vs LIC 's (Listed Investmt Co.)- Global Eqs.Very large ASX listed ETF 's versus large LIC 's (Listed Investment Companies) in Global Equities - ETF (marked with stepped lines): VGS Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF, IOO iShares Global 100 ETF, MGE Magellan Global Trust - LIC: MFF (MFF Capital Investments Ltd, preciously Magellan Flagship Fund), FGG Future Generation Global Investment, PMC Platinum Capital Ltd, TGG Templeton Global Growth Fund, PIA Pengana International Equities Ltd
ASX:VGS
by dartde
GBPAUD SHORTFundamentals will create any reason to explain the technicals of the market. BREXIT, protest, etc. Being a technical trader and having a set algorithm will solve most over complicated issues to this complex market. It looks just about time for the this pair to resume its long term downtrend. I am currently in shorts, but will be adding to my position once price declines further past 1.8500 support. My overall target for this position is 400 pips to 1.81.. The market can fall further than this point, but I will have further updates once that happens.
Short
by bajapips
Australian SP200 looking for a drop. ie: short AustraliaPitchforks are handy for predicting future trend directions. The longer term has been directed by that big upward facing pitchfork over the last few years, but I have a feeling once this upper resistance level is hitexpect to see some serious headwinds. Aussie bond yields are dropping like rocks at the moment and the currency is failing against all peers. Plus every Hedgefund manager and his dog are lining up to short the Aussie housing market which is at levels that no other part of the world is experienceing. In terms of commodities, of which Australia’s economy is made up of the exports thereof, all are dropping except for the one that is most crucial; iron ore. However, I cant see how the price of this can remain high for too much longer. If a drop happens there expect a rough landing for Australia; if im not mistaken about 40% of Australia’s economy is based on iron ore exports to china, and a further 30% of the economy after that is the housing market. So looking back at the technicals, if this peak is not to turn into support, I’m tipping a drop and then a fall in line with that smaller pitchfork. Trade accordingly.
FX:AUS200Short
by MadButcherWA
CBA.ASX finally giving inFrom everything I’ve read over the years commonwealth bank has been a widow maker for many traders looking to short. I almost bought some $65 put options earlier this year which would have expired in October. Lucky me! Any way, looks like this may finally be it. To me it looks like a big tripple top has been out in here. With the real estate market in Australia easing up a little and commbank being so heavily exposed to the housing market any dip will ravage them. Keeping in mind we have a prime minister who has taken a page out of draghis book looking to do what ever it takes to keep the Aussie housing bubble blowing. Circled in green are our three tops. It’s also important to note the 200 weekly MA has just punched through the 20MA. There are also two lower lows as valley between our tops. A break below $70 will be the final bell.
ASX:CBAShort
by MadButcherWA