WILL THE USD FINISH THE WEEK STRONGIn this video update, we look at how the USD has performed this week and what could happen leading into next week.
USD is currently still sitting in the wedge pattern and looks likely to break higher despite the current situation in the Bond market.
If we do see a clear close above the highs expect the market to continue higher.
Australia
GBPUSD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONGBPUSD is currently testing the bearish moving averages and looks to be forming a bearish ringed high pattern. If the market finishes like this tonight, look for further downside to continue.
GBP continues to have Brexit woes despite PM Mays small win with a confidence vote by her own party.
USDSGD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONWith the USD expected to fall we look to the USD crosses for short opportunities. We have already had one great trade on USDSGD last month and it has lined up again for another short opportunity.
The reason we expect USD to fall is due to the current downside of the US Government Bonds. The prices of the Bonds are falling and this can show a lack of investment in the greenback. A lack of investment can lead to the currency weakening and the bonds tend to act as a lead indicator for the USD strength/weakness.
Technically the daily chart formed a ringed high at the bearish moving averages showing potential downside. Weekly support sits at 1.3613 and would be first targets.
FTSE100 DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONFTSE looks set for further downside technically despite the current bid we are seeing due to PM May currently being supported by MP's. However, the actual vote does not take place
until this evening and could be a very different story by 5pm GMT. If we see bearish price action at the resistance we could look for further downside to come in this market.
AUDCHF CHANGE IN TRENDSimilarly to the AUDCAD set up, AUDCHF has changed cycle on the Daily chart. The moving averages have crossed bearish and the market looks set to re-test the averages and key 61.8 fib retracement.
If we see bearish price action here we can look for further short trades in line with trend.
AUDCAD CORRECTIONAUDCAD has been on our radar for a few reasons. AUD GDP Report was poor and put doubt in the mind of investors whether the RBA could hike rates at all.
We are also seeing CAD gain strength off the back of the current decision for Opec to cut oil production to help struggling oil prices.
The daily timeframe is potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder forming at the 0.9650 resistance.
Price has currently formed a double top pattern at the resistance and if we see a break lower, look for the re-test for continuation trades.
NZDJPY TREND CONTINUATIONNZDJPY has been a good market to trade for us this year and we are seeing a solid uptrend forming with the market forming higher highs and higher lows.
The market has formed a bullish engulfing candle off the 20ema giving us a strong indication that the market could move higher from here.
GBPAUD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONFor the same reasons to short the GBPNZD market, we have here for GBPAUD.
The market has been trading between the key resistance of 1.7750 and key support of 1.7280.
If we see bearish price action here at the moving averages look for short opportunities into the key support level.
GBPNZD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONYesterday PM May deferred the vote on Brexit in Parliament that was meant to take place today so she can discuss the current draft agreement with the EU again. She was highly unlikely to win the vote regardless and the markets took this news negatively. Looking at the GBP pairs we have an opportunity to continue to trade this currency lower and GBPNZD looks good for further downside.
Technically the market is in a downtrend and the lower timeframe averages are lining up with the higher timeframe averages with price currently re-testing the averages.
Look for bearish price action here for continuation trades lower.
EURUSD TO BENEFIT FROM USD WEAKNESSEURUSD has been holding nicely above the key 1.1300 and with the potential for further USD weakness combined with strong Euro seasonal patterns, a move into the key resistance of 1.1780 could be likely.
Looking at the 4hr timeframe on the right-hand side we have seen a close above the previous significant highs and price is currently testing the moving averages. If we see bullish price action here we can look for the early opportunity long.
BREXIT VOTE TUESDAY...WHAT NEXT FOR GBPUSD?In this video update, we take a look at GBPUSD. The UK Parliment is voting on the current Brexit deal proposed by PM May and it is likely that she will lose the vote. If this happens then the likelihood of a no deal increases and with that so does the ongoing uncertainty.
DXY MONDAY OUTLOOKIn this video update, we take a look at the DXY and plan for the week ahead. We like to analyse this on a Monday to help gauge the strength or weakness of the greenback and where we can best position ourselves around it.
President Trump is questioning himself as to why the stock markets are falling and is it his fault. Trump wants a weaker dollar and higher stock market and he may start to put pressure on the FED to meet his demands.
DXY...WHERE WILL IT FINISH AFTER NFPIn this video update, we take a look at the DXY. We expect downside here however if we do see a shock in the numbers the $97.00 resistance that the market has struggled to get above of recent could be broken.
The numbers are forecast to be slightly softer, as well as the US Bond market selling off, the USD could be in for a decline.
EURNZD DOWNTREND CONTINUATION Looking at the EURNZD pair, daily chart we can see the current downtrend in play. Seasonally, EURO has it's best performing month in December however, NZD longs
still look in play as it heads towards the 0.7000 level. Technically this looks good for trend continuation and if we do see bearish price action here we could anticipate another impulse
move lower.
NIKKEI DOWNSIDE CONTINUATION LIKELYThe NIKKEI is seeing significant downside largely due to the current strength of the JPY. With the outflow from the stock indicies to the safe havens, we should see further downside to the key support of 20240.00.
Look for continuation trades on the lower timeframes.
CADCHF DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONWe have been looking for for this market to move lower from the key resistance of 0.7570, with the BOC holding interest rates at 1.75% we saw the market move significantly lower taking at the previous daily structure lows.
Currently, price is sitting at the daily 127.2 extension where we could see some short-term support before seeing a continuation down the weekly support of 0.7262.
EURJPY DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONEURJPY has been on our watchlist as price breaks through a key trendline support. The daily chart confirmed the lower low, lower close and we should see further downside as money moves
from the equities to the safe havens such as JPY and GOLD.
Looking to the 4hr timeframe we can see the lower low clearly and if we see the market retrace to the resistance at the previous structure lows around the 128.25.
We will look for targets down the key swing support level of 127.20.
USDNOK DOWNSIDE WITH OIL STRENGTHUSDNOK downside looks likely as USD pushes lower. This combined with the current OPEC decision to cut oil production could help the NOK a heavy producer and exporter of oil to increase in value.
Technically the daily timeframe is still in an uptrend, however looking to the 4hr timeframe you can see the head and shoulders pattern has been completed, which is an early sign of a change in trend.
We also have the confluence of a higher timeframe trendline support being broken with price closing below. This is an early indication of further downside.
Minor resistance and head and shoulder neckline of 8.5200 would be an ideal place to look for a short opportunity.
USDJPY DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONAgain looking to take advantage of the USD sell off, USDJPY has formed lower lows on the 4hr timeframe and looks to continue lower.
We have a minor resistance level up at the 113.20 previous structure lows. If price can retrace into the resistance and interact with this
zone and bearish moving averages we can look for further short opportunities with 112.00 the key targets.
EURUSD UPSIDE CONTINUATIONNow the USD has broken through the key trendline support we could potentially see a significant USD sell off.
The 4hr chart here has started to form higher highs and higher lows and could continue the uptrend.
Our moving averages have crossed bullish on this timeframe also adding to our confluence. Applying the Fibonacci we can see the
50% fib retracement is sitting at a minor area of structure. If price retraces to here and forms bullish price action we will look for a long
opportunity into the 127.2 fib extension.