XAUUSD (GOLD) UPSIDE CONTINUATIONIn today's video update, we take a look at GOLD and how money seems to be flowing into the safe haven.
Australia
EURJPY DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONEURJPY has been on our watchlist as price breaks through a key trendline support. The daily chart confirmed the lower low, lower close and we should see further downside as money moves
from the equities to the safe havens such as JPY and GOLD.
Looking to the 4hr timeframe we can see the lower low clearly and if we see the market retrace to the resistance at the previous structure lows around the 128.25.
We will look for targets down the key swing support level of 127.20.
USDNOK DOWNSIDE WITH OIL STRENGTHUSDNOK downside looks likely as USD pushes lower. This combined with the current OPEC decision to cut oil production could help the NOK a heavy producer and exporter of oil to increase in value.
Technically the daily timeframe is still in an uptrend, however looking to the 4hr timeframe you can see the head and shoulders pattern has been completed, which is an early sign of a change in trend.
We also have the confluence of a higher timeframe trendline support being broken with price closing below. This is an early indication of further downside.
Minor resistance and head and shoulder neckline of 8.5200 would be an ideal place to look for a short opportunity.
USDJPY DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONAgain looking to take advantage of the USD sell off, USDJPY has formed lower lows on the 4hr timeframe and looks to continue lower.
We have a minor resistance level up at the 113.20 previous structure lows. If price can retrace into the resistance and interact with this
zone and bearish moving averages we can look for further short opportunities with 112.00 the key targets.
EURUSD UPSIDE CONTINUATIONNow the USD has broken through the key trendline support we could potentially see a significant USD sell off.
The 4hr chart here has started to form higher highs and higher lows and could continue the uptrend.
Our moving averages have crossed bullish on this timeframe also adding to our confluence. Applying the Fibonacci we can see the
50% fib retracement is sitting at a minor area of structure. If price retraces to here and forms bullish price action we will look for a long
opportunity into the 127.2 fib extension.
DOW UPSIDE CONTINUATIONStock market upside continuation is highly likely now with the short-term truce between Trump and China. 4hr chart here showing clear upside to come in the markets, looking for pullbacks into the averages before looking for long opportunities. The 61,8 fib retracement has a minor support level when looking left holding a likely area for the market to move higher from. Look for longs to the key resistance of 26800.00.
OIL BOUNCE BACK ON THE CARDSUSOil has bounced back from the $50.00 level and could see further upside. OPEC has agreed to cut production, this will limit the supply and increase demand for the commodity.
As demand increases so will the price and we should see some relief to the current downside we are seeing in Oil.
Looking at the 4hr chart we can see that the market has formed higher highs and the moving averages have now crossed bullish. Applying Fibs we can see the 61.8 retracement is
sitting at the previous structure highs and would be an area of interest if the market formed bullish price action here. 1st targets up at the 127.2 fib extension and follow the 4hr trend higher.
USD LIKELY TO MOVE AS TRUMP AGREES SHORT TERM TRUCE WITH CHINAOver the weekend we saw headlines out of the G20 meetings and in particular a sort of truce between Trump and China with regards to current trade tariffs. They have put a hold on trade war spats for a few months to come to a fair agreement between the 2 nations.
This will likely help the stock markets move higher with a move back to risk on. Buying the Indexes and some selling of the USD. However, time will tell how long this will hold up for. If we see a break and close above the $97.00 we should see some upside to the USD, a break below the supporting trendline further downside will occur. Patience is key here to see clear direction before getting involved.
GBPJPY DOWNSIDE BEARISH PATTERNGBPJPY has been stuck consolidating at a key resistance point with 61.8 fib confluence. Price is currently forming a descending triangle pattern and if price breaks and closes below the supporting trendline we could see further downside into the 127.2 Fib extension of 142.70. This market could be prone to downside due to Brexit risk, especially on December 11th where parliament will vote on PM May Brexit agreement.
DAX DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONIndex's look fragile again despite the recent upside we have currently seen. Our moving averages remain bearish and we could see prices fall further into the 10780.00 support.
Traders have been looking for the rebound in the indices and are likely to cause further selling and new lows before seeing significant upside.
AUDUSD SHORT BREATHERAUDUSD saw a move higher this week largely due to the weakness in the USD. We have now seen price stall at the recent resistance of 0.7340 and could see the market hold here forming a brief consolidation.
Typically when the market breaks higher we will see a short pause before buying resumes. A break and close above the resistance we will look for continued long opportunities into the next resistance of 0.7500.
GOLD UPSIDE LIKELYAgain as we stated before we expected the USD to fall this week and this has led to a rise in the price of Gold.
The market has been working between technical levels as of late and found support at the key $1215.00 support zone.
Looking for long opportunities here for long trades into the key resistance around $1240.00 especially through December.
USOIL BACK TO $50.00...OVEREXTENDED?USOIL has no tested $50.00 a barrel and could find some support here. The Oil market has been significantly bearish and we have managed to catch the majority of the move down.
However, the price has now come to a critical level and looks to be seriously overextended. If you move up the weekly chart you will see how far price has moved from the Moving Averages and we could see
prices push to test these over the coming weeks.
EURUSD BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLEWe spoke earlier this week about the potential of EURUSD moving higher as FED Chair Powell tries to play down the rate of which they will hike interest rates in 2019.
Technically the 1.1300 support has held and price formed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. This is a strong indication that price could move higher towards the next resistance of 1.1780.
CADCHF TREND CONTINUATION CADCHF was on our list this week as we saw price break and form new lows on the daily chart. Once price re-tested the moving averages it formed a bearish inside candle. We took a short position on the low with stops above the highs.
Expecting this market to move lower in line with our strategy.
AUS200 LONG OPPORTUNITIESIn today's video update, we take a look at the AUD index as we see price start to accumulate at the key weekly support. If we see price turn bullish here on our trading timeframe we can look for long opportunities.
AUDCAD TREND CONTINUATIONAUDCAD has been a great market for us to trade as we saw the market bounce from the range support. We managed to get a good position at the support and the 4hr timeframe
gave us multiple positions to get on the back of the long opportunities.
The market is now sitting at a key resistance, where we could see price struggle. However if we do see a break higher, we have the opportunity to look for continuation trades to the top of the range.
All readied up for long the autralian indexI am seing the australian stock market selloff slowing down, following a selloff due to the global fear in the world that produced dumps of everything.
Going to keep an eye on the dow. Right now the dow is the big bubble in the world, and it is where every one has some money. The whole market cap is insane, in particular you got the top us (and some chinese) tech stocks that have ginourmous market caps. Funny how Wallmart makes 500 billion in revenue (10 bil net income) but its market cap is far behind, while Amazon with 1/3 revenue & net income (175 bil & 3 bil) has this monstruous market cap for the simple reason of being a "tech" thing... Most tech stocks are... Apple is a crazy company and even Buffet bought shares close to ath, their net income dwarfs all the rest at 60 billion btw... BUT if we go into a recession people are not going to feel rich and are not going to buy overpriced "luxury tech". The whole Apple success is super fragile in my opinion.
I see the dow going into some kind of complacency OR going to make a triple top. Unless it dumps hard it will not prevent Australian stocks from bouncing.
Back to the subject.
To make this simple, Australian PE ratios are at average, even in the lows compared to the past 20 years, the dividends are ok, pretty average.
The country is not in any trade war, there is no drama around it, its companies are solid and yes the us dollar going up might hurt them a little, but Oil is also going down not so much a big deal for them thought.
Here are the biggest companies:
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
Aristocrat Leisure
Amcor
AGL Energy
Australian Stock Exchange
APA GroupStapled Security
Aurizon
AMP
Alumina
Bank of Queensland
Australia is one of the richest country in the world (by person ofc), behind Luxembourg Switzerland and all the small places.
Like the swiss they are very service oriented & in particular in banking etc.
Do not want to go super in depth, but to make this simple there is no reason for it to go down massively it's all fear because the the overvalued us tech stocks.
The FED talking about hiking rates in december so eyes open... Maybe Aus bounces before that and we can get run away with our profits before this happens :bitconnect:.
Dax and Cac 40 are in the same boat
Will patiently wait for my target to get reached and go long unless there is a terror attack or something. Oh and also, bullish divergence on oscillators.
USDMXN SHORTS FROM KEY ZONEUSDMXN has been on our list for a while now looking for the high probability short trade from the key resistance of 20.9000.
With the recent uptrend forming here we can see the Fibonacci extension 127.2 sits just under the key resistance zone using the current impulse leg.
This area will likely see sellers re-enter the market as it shows the market could be over-extended at this level.
NZDJPY STRATEGY CONTINUATIONWe looked at NZDJPY in our free telegram channel (find details in the description) for our trade of the day. This market falls in line with one of
our key strategies. Technically the market is in an uptrend forming higher highs and higher lows after rejecting the key weekly support of
72.40. Price then formed a bullish engulfing candle off the 20ema. Looking for the market to move higher here.
GBPCHF CONTINUATIONThis week we were looking for GBP to continue the sell-off as Theresa May continues to be criticised by parliament for her current draft agreement with the EU.
Despite the EU accepting the draft agreement, parliament will likely reject PM Mays plans which will cause further disruption to the GBP.
We only see downside to this market for now and looking to pair the GBP against stronger currencies such as the CHF.
Technically the market is in a downtrend and has re-tested resistance and the moving averages.
Targets come in at the support of 1.2640.
AUDJPY SHORT-TERM UPSIDEAUDJPY has seen a boost higher at the key weekly support. We expected downside here if the price could break and close below the lows. Despite the market breaking lower, we did not get a confirmed close lower.
The 4hr timeframe has now broken through trendline resistance and formed a higher high, higher close with our moving averages also pointing bullish. If price re-test the minor structure highs we could look for a short-term trade into the highs around 82.70.
GBPAUD BREAKOUT PATTERNGBPAUD has been bearish for a while now and with Brexit volatility looming we could see further downside here.
Price is currently testing the moving averages and key resistance of 1.7750. Applying trendline support we could expect a breakout
if this market breaks and closes below the trendline support. 1st targets come in around the key support at 1.7360. Alternatively, we could
wait for a double top pattern to form here before seeing further downside.
