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Australia

How are we travelling?Looks like we are currently moving down in the third Elliott wave. We have completed four sub-waves of this third wave and are likely to complete the fifth one after a leg up and a leg down. We are likely to move up in the fourth corrective wave after the completion of the third wave before moving down in the 5th of the fifth wave. Alternative count: It is possible that the third wave shown on the chart is actually wave C. Regardless, S&P will move up after the completion of this wave but it will then start a new first wave. PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
ASX:XJOShort
by ndau
USD STRENGTH EVIDENTAs we can see from this USDCHF chart currently the USD strength is in play and we should expect this to continue as long as the data backs up the Federal Reserves plans to hike interest rates. We will be closely watching the data releases over the coming weeks. Keep an eye on GDP, CPI and Employment announcements as these will be key indicators to inflation targets. This will then ultimately affect the decisions to hike rates or not. Looking at this chart we can see the 4hr chart created the higher highs after double bottoming at the support zone we have talked about before. Expecting this market to head up to the key resistance of 1.0050 where the market will have to make a decision on direction.
Long
by BlueberryMarkets
EURUSD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONWith current situation with Brexit and Italy continuing, the EURO could be an interesting currency to keep an eye on. That paired with the USD strength economically and seasonally we could see further downside to come from this market. Looking at the chart technically, before we look for the short trades we need to see a clear close below the current structure lows at 1.1432. If we see that close below we could see a re-test of the 127.2 fib extension before seeing a retracement to the those structure lows where we will look for the short if the market conditions have been met.
Short
by BlueberryMarkets
BRENT CRUDE TO RETRACE FURTHER IN WEEKLY UPTRENDWe have already had some great shorts on Brent of the past few weeks and now we have just cleared out the support of $80.00 we can continue to look for the short positions. We have to be aware that the weekly chart is still in an uptrend and until its breaks the weekly lows of $70.34 we should be cautious in holding long term short positions. Looking at the chart we could see the BRENT CRUDE OIL market retracing down to the 38.2 fib and if so we could look for further short trades down to this point if the market on the 4hr timeframe can pullback into the key 4hr structure lows of $79.00.
TVC:UKOILShort
by BlueberryMarkets
CADJPY STILL HOLDING AT SUPPORT AHEAD OF BOC RATE DECISIONWe expect to see some movement on this pair this week due to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday where they are forecasting a 25bp hike. This should lead to some investment into the Canadian Dollar however is the move already priced in? Looking at this chart technically it's at a weekly support level which it can't seem to break through at the minute and could be key to either seeing the market break or bounce at this point.If we see a break above the key structure highs we can look for CADJPY longs however if we sink and close below the support we could expect a deeper retracement of the weekly uptrend to the supporting trendline below. One to watch!
by BlueberryMarkets
GBPUSD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATION LIKELYLooking at the GBPUSD technically we can see that the market is clearly making lower lows and lower highs and the Daily timeframe confirms we are still in a downtrend with the potential for price to head down to the key support level of 1.2700. If the market can pullback to the key resistance of 1.3020 with 50.0% Fib confluence we can look for the continuation short with stops above key 4hr highs. Brexit still remains the threat here with Prime Minister May saying she has the deal 95% done however the Irish border remains an issue. This is likely to continue to cause an issue for a while and would expect the market to move lower.
Short
by BlueberryMarkets
ASX - over extended market.The market has over extended now and as i have mentioned in my previous post, i am expecting green this week. Today's close is evident of that and looks good for a 1-2 week up trend. I Expect us to reach the red area before heading down lower. friend of mine mentioned that US earning reports re coming out in 2 weeks. This may be the catalyst that takes us lower into the next lot of targets. Other than that, we should have some relief. Fisher and RVGI ready to reset.
ASX:XJOLong
by rarea
ASX dump. 6000 did not hold!I did not expect such strong selling through the 6000 level so soon. I was honestly expecting a bounced at 6000 with long term support (trend line) holding.. I guess THEY had other plans ;) The selling occurred due to the $DJI breaking support and dipping just under 6%. Second target in sight, however, the fisher and RVGI are both over extended so I expect some green action to come next week. I will need to revisit at todays close to determine if this may occur or not, the current candle stick is already a sign of reversal and it is approx 1:30pm. I will also link the DJI chart for reference of support break. Reminder to check my last charts in related ideas. Previous chart called for 6000 being reached within 5 work days.
ASX:XJOShort
by rarea
ASX Market Update.I've been watching this closely. Mutliple channels being formed and breaking down. Today the $AUD broke the 0.72 support level. House prices have dipped 6.1% this year and the cash rate was kept at 1.5%. I believe we will see 6000 soon. Hoping that will hold, otherwise the blue box is the target. As stated in my related idea, interest only loans are about to mature. With the current climate of our economy, families and investors may find it difficult to pay and close off their loans. "Around two-thirds of interest-only loans in the Reserve Bank's Securitisation Dataset are due to have their interest-only periods expire by 2020 (Graph 4). That is consistent with interest-only periods typically being around five years. Only a small share of loans have interest-only periods of 10 years (or longer), with very few loans on these terms having been written (and securitised) since 2015." (www.rba.gov.au)<< Great article about the current situation. Of course, they can refinance their loan, but doing so, with the current uncertainty of the economy, may be too much risk to handle. Things do not look great for the Australian Economy.
ASX:XJOShort
by rarea
S&P 200 bigger picture: Up to 6800 before going down to 4500ASX 200 started a new five Elliott wave structure after the completion of correction in Februrary 2009. It has since completed four waves on a monthly scale and is now running upwards in its fifth wave which is likely to terminate around 6800 and go down to around 4500. Why do I think so? If we zoom in in the period from February 2016 when the fifth wave started, you would see that ASX 200 has already completed four waves on this weekly timescale (green waves) and is now completing the fifth wave which started in February 2018. Also see a chart copied below. If we further zoom in the period since February 2018 by going to the daily scale (see below - pink waves), you would notice that ASX 200 has completed two waves and is now running in the third wave. The five waves on the daily scale are likely to be completed by 6800. Further, 6800 is the top of the bullish channel started in 2008. Also, it is the value of the previous top before the financial crisis which is expected to offer significant resistance. What would be the correction target? If the correction is 61.8% then it could take ASX 200 down to 4500, but of course, it also depends on the level from which ASX 200 starts correction. If the correction is up to 78.6%, then ASX 200 will drop to 4000. When is the correction likely to start and end? It is difficult to say but I expect the correction to start in Nov-Dec 2018 and to complete by Jan-Feb 2020. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Yes, this entire wave started in 2009 and completing in Feb 2020 would just be the first cyclic wave. After its completion, ASX 200 is expected to start the third bullish cyclic wave which could run for many years and could take ASX 200 up to around 10,000. Weekly chart Daily chart Note: It is not a financial advice. Please trade at your own risk.
ASX:XJOShort
by ndau