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Aussie rises in advance of RBA rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to bring another 50 bps rate hike later today, and AUD/USD rose to 0.7023 with minor oscillation while its economy is dealing with the aftermath of the Sydney flood and Chinese lockdowns. As the Bank of England is preparing to increase interest rates on Thursday, GBP/USD climbed to 1.2254 and stabilized at the 1.2250 level, gaining over 80 pips. The latest reading for US ISM Manufacturing PMI is 52.8, slightly higher than market estimates, but projections for US JOLTs Job Openings in June anticipated a minor drop to 11 million new job openings. Nonetheless, USD/CAD closed at 1.2845 and reached a high of 1.2855. Compared to previous figures, Germany's retail sales in June decreased by 1.6%, against market bets for a 0.2% minimal growth, the EUR/USD pair was last traded at 1.0261 with a high of 1.029. Crude oil demands were cut by recession sentiment, falling to $93.89 a barrel, losing almost $5 in the process. Gold futures closed higher at 1,787.7, then went to 1,796.6 an ounce. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
TWE.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Does Corn Really Lead Treasury Wines?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. The blue line in the graph above is corn (futures) projected forward, now why on earth would corn lead the Treasury Wines share price? While I let you ponder the answer to that the correlation between a projected forward corn price and TWE has been relatively high through history at approximately 30%, simply scroll back through the chart and you can see for yourself that corn has a pretty good track record of leading TWE. Now that we have a projection of sorts the next step would be to conjure up a trade based on this intermarket relationship (if it truly does indeed exist). Let me draw your attention to the system on screen, it is a reverse of the Supertrend STRATEGY (Inputs: ATR Length, 3, Factor 1.5) where it buys the short term dips and sells the short term rallies. An analysis of performance shows that TWE is a very choppy stock. To see performance scroll down to the bottom of the chart and make sure Supertrend STRATEGY is showing. Now the next trick is to view the Performance Summary (not overview) where is breaks down the performance of long trades v short trades. An analysis of long trades shows buying dips was highly profitable with a profit factor above 2 and a high percentage of winning trades. With this evidence the way I would trade TWE is to use Corn, or seasonal analysis or similar to obtain a bullish bias and then look to buy into a pull back on TWE. Once set I would then look to sell the position once the stock reached an overbought level. Stop Losses are a little difficult to set on a mean reversion strategy as theoretically the bigger the pull back the better the opportunity but I would suggest a fairly wide stop level of around 10-15% of the stock price as an emergency stop in case the trades really goes wrong. The question you're obviously asking is should I get long now? In my opinion awaiting a pull back is probably the best strategy, you could use a stochastic or RSI indicator (or any oscillator) for that matter and look to enter during oversold zones and close out during an overbought period.
ASX:TWE
by andrew.gibbs777
ANZ.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Countertrend Trading with a Trend FilterNote: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. ANZ, one of the big four banks listed on the Australian Stock Exchange is a pretty tricky stock to trade, conforming more to a six month cycle between dividend and earnings dates. However from a purely technical standpoint, on a medium term basis there are opportunities to trade in line with a longer term trend, and on a short term basis to enter the stock on very short term pull backs. In this analysis we looked at the Supertrend Strategy using a 50 period length with a 6xATR Factor to capture longer term trends and then looked at buying short term dips and selling short term rallies. In the longer term timeframe this worked quite well with ANZ making good money based on the Performance Summary but entries and exits are few and far between with this approach. Bringing the time frame back to a swing trading standpoint, the best results came from using the Supertrend STRATEGY in a countertrend way, buying dips and selling rallies using just a 3 period ATR Length with a 1 period factor, giving plenty of trades. Filtering the short term system with the longer term trend also resulted in more frequent winning trades so trading countertrend in the very short term with a longer term trend filter worked nicely. The catch is when you get a longer term trend change without a resulting rally to exit on the countertrend system, which can at times result in very large losses, like during Covid. It is for this reason a stop loss should be set, even when trading countertrend to prevent large losses on a stock that does often trend. Using the blue trailing stop line is a common sense area to position a stop loss as insurance against a big fall.
ASX:ANZ
by andrew.gibbs777
BHP - FUNCHARTS: Should we buy the dip?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. BHP has sure been belted, but should we catch a falling knife? - Let's take a basic look at BHP using a very short term strategy. It involves using a strategy called Supertrend Strategy with a 3 period ATR input and an ATR length of 1.5 times. - Firstly, I've flipped it upside down, so we get a buy signal when the trend changes to down and a sell signal when the trend changes to UP - Now, next step, Applying this strategy to BHP, take a look at the performance report for Long Trades and Short Trades using the Performance report TAB. Long Trades Buy the Dip , Short Trades Sell the Rally - Looking at Long Trades, 66% of the time it was profitable to Buy a short term dip on BHP and wait for the trend to change back to up, after which you exited the long position. The profit fact was 1.77. No stop was used in the analysis. - It was also marginally profitable to sell short term uptrends in BHP, meaning trend of less than 30 days didn't persist all that often. - What's the verdict? Buying short term weakness in BHP and selling short term strength has made money in the past. BHP is typically a very choppy stock. I hear what you're saying, you'd like to know if buying the current dip we are in will result in a profit? Based on this analysis BHP will usually stage some sort of rally in a downtrend and you would have make money 66% of the time historically. But looking at external analysis I'm not overly confident just yet. When I'd like to get in. Take a look at the blue histogram on the chart, if it goes below -10, I'd expect the odds to be pretty good for a rally of at least a few days, if not more. That means any further (significant) downside could be an opportunity for a countertrend mean reversion play. It'll be a day where there is blood on the streets for BHP.
ASX:BHPLong
by andrew.gibbs777
Economic view of the Australian dollarAs fears that a recession is just around the corner for the US, some economists are warning that Australia could follow suit. Some, however, remain bullish on the Australian economy due to high household savings, strong commodity exports, accommodative government stimulus and a robust pipeline of residential building constructions. Emerging from pandemic-induced recession The Australian economy recorded its worst single quarterly economic contraction since the 1930s Great Depression in the second quarter of 2020. Like many countries, the economy was hit hard by COVID-19 restrictions in the first half of 2020. The country emerged from that recession in the third quarter of 2020. Australia was among a few that managed to bounce back quickly as the government relaxed restrictions, fueling a recovery in consumption. Household spending contributed the most to the overall recovery as the easing of lockdown measures unleashed pent-up consumer demand. Delta derails recovery The economy continued on its recovery path until the third quarter of 2021 when Australia’s GDP contracted due to measures imposed to prevent the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Household spending was hurt by local governments’ move to reimpose curbs. Australia rebounded in the fourth quarter as Delta-related lockdowns were lifted towards the end of 2021. "Consumers enthusiastically returned to discretionary spending following the end of delta-related lockdowns,” Australia’s statistics official Ben James said at the time. The Australian economy has swung from short periods of downturn to quick recoveries as soon as governments lift border restrictions and other curbs after containing local outbreaks. But as global inflation shocks and interest rate hikes by other central banks prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia to also take a hawkish approach to tame inflation, many experts are warning that the country could face another economic downturn. Brace for more tightening Earlier this month, the RBA raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 0.85%, surprising the market that had predicted the rate hike at 25 or 50 bp. RBA Governor Philip Lowe last week warned of more tightening in the months to come as the monetary policy board believes the current rate is still “very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation.” Australia’s unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.9% in May, while the country’s first-quarter inflation rate accelerated to a 20-year high of 5.1% from 3.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. Recession likely to happen As commodity prices continue to skyrocket and as the central bank pursues a hawkish stance, BetaShares Chief Economist David Bassanese said there is a 40% chance that Australia could enter a recession within the next 12 months. “When the US sneezes, we catch a cold. The local share market will not be immune to further Wall Street weakness, especially as we also face uncomfortably high inflation and likely aggressive RBA rates hikes in coming months,” Bassanese said in a recent note. The economist noted that the local stock market will likely follow the US into bear market territory in the coming months. AMP Capital economist Diana Mousina last week said the high inflation environment is adding to weakness in consumer spending. AMP Capital lowered its GDP growth expectation for Australia this year to 2.7% from 4%. Mousina, however, said the strength in residents’ accumulated savings and supportive fiscal and monetary stimulus will likely keep the country’s economy from collapsing. “A lot of positives” This was echoed by RBA's Lowe last week when he played down worries over a looming recession in Australia, saying he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon. "Australia has a lot of positives… But if the last two years have taught us anything, you can't rule anything out,” the RBA governor said.
by BlackBull_Markets
A Kangaroo Hop!Things seem to be going well down under. With Iron Ore prices jumping close to 8% last week, Australia, the largest exporter of the raw material stands to benefit greatly. In 2021, Iron Ore exports totaled close to US$120 billion. This contributes greatly to the demand side pressure on the Australian dollar. Looking at the charts, the AUDUSD pair is currently trading at the bottom of the channel support on the 1-hr time frame. With the 200-period moving average right below current levels, we think downside resistance will prove strong and prices will bounce off the bottom of the rising channel quickly. Stay tuned to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting tomorrow and time your entry there! Assuming no surprises and the technical supports are intact, we favor the long side for the AUDUSD pair. Entry at 0.7190, stop below 0.712. Targets are 0.7346 and 0.7460. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6A1!Long
by inspirante
8
BTC AUDMonday 9th May 2022 The ascending channel is still in play In this current bear, this is the second time it has tapped the bottom of this channel, so it could be getting ready to spring board up But with all the uncertainty around at the moment, there could be some more downside, with wicks down to the next lower fib curve at $42,328. So long as closes are above the bottom of the channel, we should see some upside and a test back up tot he 33 day MA and the downward yellow dashed trend line. Approximately 24th June 2022 (24/06/2022 - 666) we could see a break up. The bottom of the ascending channel and the yellow dashed descending trend line converge here. Or this could be the sign of the break down further and final shake out of all the weak hands before the next grind up out of here, for the full parabolic move on the logarithmic growth curve we have been waiting for. All MA's are tipping further down MACD has some more downside to go before reversing Price and volume oscillator has just triggered and oversold green signal, and has hit the bottom purple band indicating a bottom is in. From here, we could see a bounce into the middle of the ascending channel where the 88 and 147 day MA's are at ~ $$56,087 to $64,816. Further downside could be located at the $33,689 TD Risk Level. Tuesday 10th May 2022 The ascending channel is still in play We have had a wick down to $43,607, but the body of the candle is still within the channel. But, we are still only on a TD 3 count, so still early days. If the channel gets broken, then next two Fibb channels are target buys.
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by kryptologic