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AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months. From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions. On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends. Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally. In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AU in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by FOREXN1
4
Analyzing the AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframethe AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe, the pair is currently in a downtrend but has not yet reached the green support zone. If the price returns to this zone, it could attract buyers, potentially pushing the price upward. This scenario may present a long opportunity, provided there's a confirmation signal before entry. Key Points: Current Trend: Downward movement towards support. Support Zone: Identified in green on the chart. Potential Action: Look for bullish confirmation signals upon price reaching the support zone before considering a long position. Always ensure proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade.
Long
by rebenga93
AUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market DynamicsAUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market Dynamics The Australian Dollar (AUD) is riding a wave of positive momentum during Friday's European session, extending its bullish trend from earlier in the week. A brighter sentiment in European markets and some profit-taking after a robust US dollar rally are contributing to the Aussie's upward trajectory. Technical Analysis: The price action tells an encouraging story, bouncing off the 0.6525 support zone, strategically located at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This rebound, in conjunction with the Dynamic trendline, has propelled the price above the 200-day moving average. Adding to the bullish outlook, the Stochastic indicator is poised to exit the oversold condition. These combined indicators present favorable signals for a potential new bullish impulse, suggesting an upward movement in the price. US Data Influence: Recent data from the United States has lent support to the USD, with jobless claims declining against expectations last week. This supports the narrative of a resilient US economy, challenging the earlier market sentiment that had priced in rate cut expectations in December. The USD's strength is a crucial factor influencing global currency movements, including the AUD. China's Economic Struggles: On the flip side, data from China has added a layer of complexity to the global economic landscape. The fourth quarter's GDP and Retail Sales figures fell below expectations, underscoring challenges in the world's second-largest economy. This has left investors eager for more robust stimulus measures and heightened negative pressure on the Australia-proxy AUD. Outlook and Targets: In light of the technical indicators and the broader market dynamics, we anticipate a bullish continuation for the Australian Dollar. Our targets are set at 0.6700 and above, reflecting our optimism for sustained upward movement. However, market participants should remain vigilant, considering the ever-changing global economic landscape, and adjust their strategies accordingly. Conclusion: The Australian Dollar's positive momentum is a testament to the intricate interplay of global market dynamics. Technical indicators align with the bullish sentiment, while factors like USD resilience and China's economic struggles add layers of complexity. As the AUD charts a path towards higher levels, traders should stay adaptable and closely monitor evolving economic indicators for a comprehensive understanding of the currency's trajectory. Our preference Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
Economic view of the Australian dollarAs fears that a recession is just around the corner for the US, some economists are warning that Australia could follow suit. Some, however, remain bullish on the Australian economy due to high household savings, strong commodity exports, accommodative government stimulus and a robust pipeline of residential building constructions. Emerging from pandemic-induced recession The Australian economy recorded its worst single quarterly economic contraction since the 1930s Great Depression in the second quarter of 2020. Like many countries, the economy was hit hard by COVID-19 restrictions in the first half of 2020. The country emerged from that recession in the third quarter of 2020. Australia was among a few that managed to bounce back quickly as the government relaxed restrictions, fueling a recovery in consumption. Household spending contributed the most to the overall recovery as the easing of lockdown measures unleashed pent-up consumer demand. Delta derails recovery The economy continued on its recovery path until the third quarter of 2021 when Australia’s GDP contracted due to measures imposed to prevent the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Household spending was hurt by local governments’ move to reimpose curbs. Australia rebounded in the fourth quarter as Delta-related lockdowns were lifted towards the end of 2021. "Consumers enthusiastically returned to discretionary spending following the end of delta-related lockdowns,” Australia’s statistics official Ben James said at the time. The Australian economy has swung from short periods of downturn to quick recoveries as soon as governments lift border restrictions and other curbs after containing local outbreaks. But as global inflation shocks and interest rate hikes by other central banks prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia to also take a hawkish approach to tame inflation, many experts are warning that the country could face another economic downturn. Brace for more tightening Earlier this month, the RBA raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 0.85%, surprising the market that had predicted the rate hike at 25 or 50 bp. RBA Governor Philip Lowe last week warned of more tightening in the months to come as the monetary policy board believes the current rate is still “very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation.” Australia’s unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.9% in May, while the country’s first-quarter inflation rate accelerated to a 20-year high of 5.1% from 3.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. Recession likely to happen As commodity prices continue to skyrocket and as the central bank pursues a hawkish stance, BetaShares Chief Economist David Bassanese said there is a 40% chance that Australia could enter a recession within the next 12 months. “When the US sneezes, we catch a cold. The local share market will not be immune to further Wall Street weakness, especially as we also face uncomfortably high inflation and likely aggressive RBA rates hikes in coming months,” Bassanese said in a recent note. The economist noted that the local stock market will likely follow the US into bear market territory in the coming months. AMP Capital economist Diana Mousina last week said the high inflation environment is adding to weakness in consumer spending. AMP Capital lowered its GDP growth expectation for Australia this year to 2.7% from 4%. Mousina, however, said the strength in residents’ accumulated savings and supportive fiscal and monetary stimulus will likely keep the country’s economy from collapsing. “A lot of positives” This was echoed by RBA's Lowe last week when he played down worries over a looming recession in Australia, saying he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon. "Australia has a lot of positives… But if the last two years have taught us anything, you can't rule anything out,” the RBA governor said.
by BlackBull_Markets
Facebook owner Meta sued by Australian commission $319 billionThe social media titan said it had cooperated with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s investigation. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks during a live-streamed virtual and augmented reality conference to announce the rebrand of Facebook as Meta, in this screen grab taken from a video released October 28, 2021. Facebook/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT Facebook faces $319 billion class-action lawsuit in UK According to the commission, the ads featured well-known Australians, including former New South Wales premier Mike Baird and businessman Dick Smith. But the high-profile personalities featured in the ads had never approved or endorsed them, it said. “Apart from resulting in untold losses to consumers, these ads also damage the reputation of the public figures falsely associated with the ads,” said the commission’s chair, Rod Sims. “Meta failed to take sufficient steps to stop fake ads featuring public figures, even after those public figures reported to Meta that their name and image were being featured in celebrity endorsement cryptocurrency scam ads,” he said. The commission said it was aware of one consumer who had lost more than A$650,000 (US$480,000) in one of the scams being falsely advertised as an investment opportunity on Facebook.
NASDAQ:METALong
by wanlebarnngir
Facebook for scam crypto adsOn Friday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said it had instituted federal court proceedings against Facebook owner Meta Platforms, Inc. “The ACCC alleges that this conduct was in breach of the Australian Consumer Law (ACL) or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act (ASIC Act),” the Australian regulator said in a statement. “It is also alleged that Meta aided and abetted or was knowingly concerned in false or misleading conduct and representations by the advertisers.
FLong
by unacthelub
1
AUS200 (1H): Potential move northThis is a theory of curves setup (TOCS) ; looking at the price action of the AUS200. In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles. The AUS200 has been curving up nicely. Of course charts don't obey these curves - that's why there is a remaining 45% chance of the setup failing. There is no target for an exit point in trend following. So, entry is the big issue. Exit points are determined by the market when price moves threw a trailing stop on a lower time frame. There is no prescription as to how to work that out because it depends on the price action in a lower timeframe. It is no possible to know that until if happens. What's in favour of a north side attempt? Always look higher e.g. the daily time frame where the RSI is in a deep trough and which will appear attractive to 'punters'. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
ETF:STW ASX200 key levels and trend lines analysis ASX:STW sharing my view on the STW Track Record – launched in August 2001, STW was the very first exchange-traded fund listed in Australia. Core Index Exposure – a potential core Australian equity exposure for investors. Diversification – low-cost exposure to over 90%1 of the Australian equity market capitalisation in a single transaction. Capture Capital Growth and Income – capture potential stock growth opportunities, dividends and franking credits offered by 200 largest, and most liquid, publicly listed entities in the Australian equity market. Rigorous Index Tracking – a rigorous investment approach that seeks to closely mirror the performance returns of the benchmark.
ASX:STW
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing