Australian
Buying AUDUSD In Pullbacks - Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternGood evening Traders,
I was waiting for a long time for a bottom in the AUDUSD.
Now finally the AUDUSD made a very nice inverse head and shoulders pattern and even confirmed it.
It broke the neckline to the upside. I want to buy it later on in a pullback in a lower timeframe, maybe this week. Lets see. Hopefully, we get a good entry in a lower timeframe.
I will update it once we get a good entry.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view.
AUDUSD AUD Australian Dollar Buying timeframe5/10/18 The US Dollar has had a fantastic run over the last few weeks, but now, we can expect other currencies to take a turn to outperform the dollar. Despite the recent run, on the long-term perspective, the dollar is still in a downtrend. I have studied the Aussie Dollar / USD chart time periods, I expect now is a moderately good buying opportunity. We can see that there are consistent sine wave patterns in this currency and we can expect a move up. We may have already reached the peak in the USD, but if not, I expect it will be no later than May 15. That being said, the Aussie dollar will not go straight up yet. I believe another buying opportunity will come around October 2018, after which time I believe the Aussie dollar will really shine. I am basing my opinion on clearly measurable fixed time periods in this chart. According my calculations, if this pattern continues, we can buy AUD now, sell by the end of July 2018 and buy again in the beginning of October 2018. Let's see if this pattern holds.
Please let me know your thoughts, and please click like if you like the analysis.
This is not advice to buy or to sell, just sharing my ideas. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
AUZ - Australian Mines; Basic Technical AnalysisLooks like Auz is trying to find support at the 8.2c mark. Large gap from late feb has been filled. Last month has been in a downtrend. Downtrend lasted approx 1 month. OBV lowest it has been for quite some time.
Conclusions:
Optimistic - A period of accumulation then hopefully a trend reversal. FA of this company are great. Will top up on holdings when a clear buy signal presents itself.
Pessimistic - Price will fall lower in need of finding support; possibly to 7.8c (small previous resistance) or even to low 6c mark before the major bull run took place.
Any feedback greatly appreciated
AUD/USD approaches dominant support As the US Dollar has kept appreciating the AUD/USD is no exception to the phenomenon. On Monday it could be seen that the rate was going down in a junior, narrow descending pattern.
The pattern was set to guide the rate down to the 0.7620 level, where various support levels are located. Namely, a monthly and a weekly support levels are located at that level together with the lower trend line of a dominant long term pattern.
It was expected that the rate could reach the support level by the middle of Monday’s trading session in GMT time zone.
You're odd. (EUR/AUD)What we see here is a really eager consolidation period. Since the beginning of February the Euro hasn't found a place to go, and the Australian Dollar has recently established some bullish behavior over some other majors.
In this graph we can see that there is a persistently strong resistance level around the 1.5655 area, right above the 78% retracement. I would've considered waiting a while longer to place a trade (I've been within the consolidation zone for about 6-7 hours), but I considered a few key points.
1.) The overall trend for the past year has been bullish (The trend is your friend)
2.) The bullish flag formation shows a solid rejection towards any new low's.
3.) Lastly, the highest low is exactly at a 45 degree angle
Note that I didn't list any information from my indicators. This is because the information above was given to me by the market. Though the indicators give some supporting feedback.
We can see within the RSI, our levels have started converging towards the 50%. Small, I know, but this can precede a rally in most consolidation circumstances. The second most important artifact is the 50 EMA. This recent position placed the 50 EMA right under our higher candle, above the 78% retracement; showing us some decent support. If the EUR/AUD does break out of it's tightening zone, we can expect to see some strong bullish candles above it's current resistance (1.57624) heading towards a few other (but weaker) resistance levels.
AUD/USD reaches targeted support The previously expected decline of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar occurred on Wednesday morning. However, before the target area of 0.7750 was reached, the pair lingered horizontally for most part of Tuesday’s trading.
After reaching the 0.7750 mark the rate found support and began a surge, which from a technical perspective was caused by the 200-hour simple moving average.
The rebound has provided a reference point for pattern drawing. By using this low level and another previous low a channel down pattern can be mapped. It is likely that this channel will hold its ground because its resistance line is set to be strengthened by the declining 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.
ASX bounced nicely off its support, potential to rise!ASX bounced nicely off its support at 5906 (61.8% Fibonacci extension x2, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially rise to its 1st resistance at 5988 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). If it breaks past this point it could potentially rise to its 2nd resistance at 6036 (100% Fibonacci extension, 78.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). We have also identified a 2nd support at 5868 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (34, 5, 3) shows it approaching its support where a corresponding bounce might occur. We have also identified a bullish divergence with price.
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Fibonacci retracements dictateIn an effort to offer a breathe from the US Dollars surge, Dukascopy analysts took a look at the AUD/CHF currency pair.
In general the rate is highly volatile and there are no large or small scale trend lines to be drawn. Instead the currency pair is bouncing between large scale Fibonacci retracement levels.
Meanwhile, in the past month the Aussie has been making lower lows, as it has failed to pierce the 38.20% Fibo at 0.74 mark. That fact combined with the recent lower high levels has provided the opportunity to draw a speculative medium term channel down pattern.
If the rate passes the 0.73 mark, the next notable support should be only near 0.7250.
AUD/USD daily reviewsThe Australian Dollar on Monday stopped the surge against the US Dollar, as the pair encountered medium term ascending channel pattern’s resistance line. Moreover, the resistance was strengthened by the weekly R1 at the 0.7960 level.
Due to that reason it is expected that the most junior channel up pattern will soon be broken, and a new junior pattern will be formed. The expected to be pattern is most likely going to guide the pair almost horizontally.
The basis for such hypothesis are the signals given by the aggregate technical indicator and the fact that after such a sharp surge, which happened after January 12, a period of consolidation should occur.
EUR/AUD Long termThe common European currency recently jumped against the rest of the currency market. However, on the EUR/AUD pair the end of the surge has already occurred.
Namely, the currency exchange rates surge was stopped by the upper trend line of a long term channel down pattern. However, the trend line might have not affected the currency pair alone, as there are four additional resistance levels above the trend line.
Regarding the pairs future movement, the rate has clearly bounced off the resistance level and is set to soon reach a support cluster near 1.5330 mark. The cluster is made up of the 55 and 100-period SMAs and the weekly R1 level.
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Set to declineThe common European currency has continued to trade in the same pattern against the Australian Dollar for some time. Although, there are some minor developments that are explained in this analysis.
Mainly, a junior channel down pattern has been discovered in the borders of the medium term channel down pattern. The channel has already done its main task of guiding the pair to the upper trend line of the dominant pattern.
GBPAUD CTR Trade ActiveTrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone.
GBPAUD H1 & H4
Technical Outlook
TRADE ACTIVE
Counter trend trade as this pair has hit support at swing low, we are looking to capture a 100pip corrective wave before we enter another position to short this pair.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 175 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low.
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
AUD/USD charted after braking of patternsAs it was expected the AUD/USD pair surged eventually up to the 0.7690 level, where it was met by one of the weekly resistance levels.
However, that level is also serving as a reference point for a larger scale channel up pattern, which is one of the two freshly drawn patterns. One more discovered pattern is the medium term channel up pattern, who has reached the upper trend line of the previously mentioned dominant pattern.
Due to the fact that the pair has reached and bounced off notable resistance, it can be expected that the rate will decline down to the medium term channel’s support. However, the 55-hour SMA is likely going to provide hinder the decline.
AUD/JPY 4H Chart: Approaches dominant resistanceThe Australian Dollar is about to touch a dominant resistance line against the Japanese Yen. Most likely the move will result in a bounce off to the downside. If that scenario occurs, the latter risk management during the decline should be focused around three areas.
First area is just below the 86.00 mark. At that level the weekly PP together with the 55 and 200–period SMAs are located at.
Afterwards the 100-period SMA should be watched, which was moving steeply higher in the middle of December.
Last but not least the lower trend line of the junior channel up pattern would be strengthened by the weekly S1 at the 85.32 level.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Confirms medium channel downThe Australian Dollar recently surged to confirm a trend line against the New Zealand Dollar. Due to that reason market participants are finally able to draw the previously expected to reveal itself medium size pattern.
In regards to the short term the pair is likely going to be pressed into the support of the weekly S1 at the 1.1050 mark. It will be done by the resistance of the 55 and 100-period simple moving averages.
Meanwhile, one needs to take into account that the four hour candles, if moved away from the simple moving averages, are likely to become larger. Namely, volatility will increase.
GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Narrow ChannelThe Pound continue to surge against the Australian Dollar. Namely, the pair is in three ascending channel patterns of various scale. In this review the main attention is on the medium and short term channels.
The situation is rather simple. The currency exchange rate recently rebounded against the support of the medium scale pattern and began a surge, which resulted in another channel up pattern.
Most recently the pair consolidated after reaching above the 1.7350 mark and found renewed strength in the support of the weekly R1 at the 1.7286 level.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Near Broken Trend LineThe situation on the AUD/NZD charts is quite rare. The pair has broken the resistance of a massive scale triangle pattern. The break out occurred in the borders of a dominant channel up pattern, which is set to guide the rate higher in the long term.
Meanwhile, in regards to the smaller scale situation, the pair has retreated in an almost obsolete channel down pattern in the borders of the channel up pattern. The channel down is set to be broken because of the support of the ascending channel.
In addition the situation is complicated by the still active resistance of the triangle pattern near the 1.1150 mark.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Recent Jump ChartedThe previous analysis of the AUD/NZD pair turned out to be correct. To the letter. However, the following surge turned out to become a jump not a surge. After finding support below the 1.0980 mark the pair skyrocketed to the 1.1250 level.
Meanwhile, the pair’s surge was stopped on Friday, which provided an opportunity to do some pattern analysis. After connecting the low levels of October 16 and setting a parallel line at the recent high levels, an ascending channel was drawn.
Although, the channel still allows for both a short term decline and a surge, as it has the particular angle that allows both moves simultaneously. In the case of a surge the monthly R2 at 1.1266 is the next target, and, if the pair declines, the weekly R3 will provide support on Friday at 1.1117 mark.