AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months.
From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions.
On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends.
Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index.
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Australiandollar
AUD/USD Maintains Strength Amid Positive Economic IndicatorsThe Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) continues to trade at elevated levels after experiencing notable gains in the previous session, predominantly fueled by the release of encouraging Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data on Tuesday. This uptick in the currency reflects an optimistic outlook on Australia’s manufacturing and service sectors, bolstered by better-than-expected economic performance.
In a significant policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has opted to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35%. This decision marks the eighth consecutive month in which the RBA has paused its rate adjustments, signaling a careful approach as the central bank navigates the complexities of the current economic landscape. Analysts speculate that the RBA is likely to hold the current rates in its upcoming policy meeting, aiming for stability amid evolving economic conditions.
From a technical analysis perspective, recent price movements have indicated a rebound from key demand zones in the market, suggesting a potential shift toward a new bullish trend. Traders are paying close attention to seasonal patterns and the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which reveals that retail investors continue to push for lower prices. This behavior often provides valuable insights into market sentiment and could indicate that a reversal may be on the horizon.
The confluence of improved economic indicators, steady monetary policy, and technical analysis suggesting a bullish trend makes the AUD/USD an asset worth watching. As investors remain alert to shifts in economic data and global market conditions, the Australian Dollar could present opportunities for those looking to capitalize on potential upward momentum in the near term.
In summary, the outlook for the Australian Dollar remains robust as it navigates through strong economic signals and a stable policy environment. Market participants are keenly observing developments in both the macroeconomic landscape and technical formations, which could shape trading strategies in the weeks to come.
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GBPAUD: Strong buy opportunity for a final push.GBPAUD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.562, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 38.182) as the price has pulled back to the bottom of the bullish wave of the 1 year Channel Up. That is technically the final buy opportunity before the rally to the top of the Channel. All prior bullish waves made a rise of at least +4.46%. As long as the 1D MA50 supports, the top of the +4.46% range will be our target (TP = 1.99500).
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AUDNZD: Bullish extension expected.AUDNZD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.156, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.433) as it maintained the rebound made on the 4H MA200 and bottom of the Channel Up. According to the 4H RSI, this pattern is similar to the 4H MA200 of April that made one final extension on that rebound to the 1.786 Fibonacci level. Our target is slightly under it (TP = 1.117500).
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Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome
This week, the U.S. presidential election will command everyone's attention.
Market watchers will be focused on a handful of pivotal swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is potentially the most critical.
Yet, the results may not be immediate. In 2020, for instance, the Associated Press declared Biden the official winner about three and a half days after polls closed.
This time around, a win by Trump could strengthen the dollar, driven by the possibility of heightened tariffs that may also weigh on currencies closely linked to China, such as the Australian dollar. With daily MACD in negative territory, AUD/USD appears on track to test the next support at 0.6490, aligned with a trend line since October 2023
In contrast, Newsquawk suggests that a Harris victory could pressure the dollar, with potential gains in commodities and the euro.
AUDCAD: 1D MA50 just confirmed a sell signal.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.833, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 20.919) as the price hit and remains on the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that 3 weeks ago made the latest HH. The crossing under the 1D MA50 has confirmed the new bearish wave as the July 23rd January 5th 2024 crossings did. The 1D RSI is also on an identical correction. All pullback waves hit atleast the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which yet again is what you should be targeting (TP = 0.905500).
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CHF/AUD – Breaking Out of Triangle with Target in Pink ZoneThe CHF/AUD is breaking out of a triangle, and my target is the pink zone, which I've identified as a key resistance level. This could also be a good area to take profits.
Strategy: I’ll be watching the breakout and aiming for the pink zone as a profit-taking area.
AUDUSD sellI was bullish in AUD USD last week but as i have observed the chart technically i am expecting a bearish move over the pair, AUD vs US dollar has made a move downward 👇 this week as far technical data is concerned the pair has made a falling wedge pattern a downward move is expected other confluence is 50 SMA , price is moving under the SMA which is another confluence for the price to be bearish we have observed the pair from Monthly to Weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 price is in bearish trend 📉
AUD/USD – Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout on 4H On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD has broken through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The first target is the initial resistance level, with the potential to reach a second resistance.
Trading Scenarios:
1. Long: Take advantage of the breakout to target the first resistance.
2. Short: At the second resistance, consider reducing positions or opening a short if the price shows signs of reversal.
AUDUSD LongAustralian 🦘 dollar vs US dollar i am watching it closely as in the next week i see a flying in the pair as Australian dollar is getting stronger against US dollar index
Technically i am watching that the rally upwards will complete its 68% of Fibb retracement and after this i am expecting flying in AUD
AUDJPY: Great long term bullish trade.AUDJPY is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.728, MACD = 0.850, ADX = 48.315) which shows the steady bullish trend on the medium term but more importantly it just turned bullish on the 1W timeframe, showing the enourmous upside potential. And this is evident as the dominant pattern is a Channel Up since March 2020. The August low was a bottom exactly on the 1D MA50, the 1D RSI is making a bottom formation and the price action looks identical to the two prior bottoms of the Channel. The rallies they produced rose both by +27.00%. We expect a similar rebound (TP = 114.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AUDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6727
Stop Loss: 0.6800 (73 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.6600 (127 pips below entry, offering a 1.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
With global risk-off sentiment growing and commodity prices showing signs of weakness, AUD/USD could face further downside pressure. This setup capitalizes on potential bearish momentum, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
Are The Bulls Still Up To IT?On this pair, we see that the Weekly chart is ready to resume its long held bearishness. Over the past few days, we have witnessed prices rally all the way up (a Bullish retracement inside a bearish swing), driving prices into our marked out Weekly reversal zone. As expected, the zone held, and we began to see reversals, with prices turning bearish from that point.
But the thing is this, that bullish retracement on the weekly came as a result of a bullish extension on the daily chart. The pertinent question before us now is whether or not the bulls of the daily chart will be able to come in strongly enough to contain the current bearish push and hold prices in a bullish trend.
Here is my take.
It is common knowledge that the lower time frames move in consonance with (in obedience to) the higher timeframes... lol (the word "obedience" got me laughing for a bit. But let's cyt back to the chase)
Now we have seen the daily printing a bullish narrative. But we are all expected to believe that the bullish trend sustained by the daily has the primary intention and purpose of driving prices in the direction of the higher timeframe, which in this case is the weekly chart. We therefore believe that all of that bullish push was to drive prices into the Weekly reversal zone. With that being fulfilled, price is expected to move in the direction of the Weekly over and above the daily direction. This is the regular theory and philosophy of the forex market.
But will that narrative hold sway this time around?
We see prices now dipping bearish. This is an extension for the Weekly chart, and at the same time a retracement on the daily bullish swing.
In the event that the Daily zone holds (which is less likely), we will expect to see prices reverse bullish, begin totally and move to take out Daily liquidity target above. This will result in a deeper retracement inside the Weekyl zone, or a complete breach of the zone. Where the zone is breached, we will look to see the market print higher prices and go all the way up.
On the other hand, if the bearish perspective of the Weekly holds, we will expect to see the Daily zone breached, at which point we will expect prices to dip towards the weekly liquidity target below.
So guys, who do you thing is gonna win the day, the Bulls of the Daily or the Bears of the Weekly? share your thoughts in the comment section
Trade Idea: AUD/USD Bounce at Support ZoneAUD/USD is currently moving downward, and I anticipate a bounce when the price reaches the upcoming support zone. This level has shown strength in the past, making it a likely spot for a rebound. I’m ready to take advantage of this potential upward move once it hits this support.
AUDCHF Trade this rejection or break-outThe AUDCHF pair is now on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) having rebounding on the 1-year Support Zone. Even though the multi-year pattern is a Channel Down, we are low enough historically, having reached levels not seen since March 16 2020, that we may have to start considering a long-term reversal.
As such, our trading plan is focused on a potential rejection or bullish break-out. Short near the top of the Channel Down for a potential Lower Highs trend-line rejection and target 0.56000 (Support Zone). If however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, take the loss on the short and buy, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.63000.
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AUDUSD: Top of Megaphone hit. Reversal expected.AUDUSD is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.054, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 53.204) as the price reached the HH trendline at the top of the Megaphone pattern. The 1D MACD printed a sequence almost identical to the December 28th 2023 top, which soon after declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we take this as a strong sell signal, aiming at the 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURAUD Sell signalThe EURAUD pair gave us an excellent but signal last time (July 15, see chart below) as the price rallied straight after it, easily hitting our 1.64500 Target:
The pair is already on the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down and until the 1D RSI starts forming Higher Lows and waves a Bullish Divergence (like the two previous bottoms), we will remain bearish, targeting 1.59500 (bottom).
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AUD/USD - Potential Rebound from Support on 15-Minute ChartOn the 15-minute chart, if AUD/USD pulls back to the current support level, there’s a strong possibility of a rebound. This support has held well in previous sessions, and a bounce from this zone could signal a bullish move. However, it’s important to watch for confirmation with bullish candlestick patterns or volume increase before considering entry. A break below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook.
GBPAUD Sell signal short-term.The GBPAUD pair is trading within a Channel Up since the start of the year, currently expanding its 2nd Bearish Leg of the pattern. The 1st pulled back marginally below the 0.618, before starting the new Bullish Leg.
We are expecting the same level to be targeted at 1.92600.
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AUDNZD Waiting patiently for that sellThe AUDNZD pair gave us the ultimate sell signal last time (July 11, see chart below) on the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level and easily hit our long-term 1.08000 Target:
The recent 3-week rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is giving us another chance to open another low risk sell on the 0.618 Fibonacci level, similar to all previous Arc tops. Our Target will be the 0.236 Fib at 1.07900, which has been the most usual Support since 2023.
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AUDUSD Any post-Fed spike will be a great sell opportunity.The AUDUSD pair is once again approaching the 14-month Resistance Zone, following a convincing rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This Higher Lows rebound resembles the July 06 2023 bounce that priced a Double Top at the top of the Resistance Zone, before collapsing rapidly to new Lows.
Ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision, we will welcome any short-term spike on high volatility to short (up to the top of the Resistance Zone) and target the Support Zone at 0.63750.
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