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Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 03, 2023Key News: USA - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00 UK - Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Friday marked a momentous day on Wall Street as the three major indices experienced a robust surge, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. Notably, the Nasdaq, renowned for its focus on technology stocks, achieved an extraordinary feat by posting its largest first-half gain in the past 40 years. This remarkable milestone underscored the resiliency and strength of the technology sector, which has been a driving force behind the market's upward trajectory. Adding to the positive sentiment was the phenomenal achievement of tech giant Apple, as it soared to a market valuation of $3 trillion. This significant milestone was a testament to the company's enduring appeal and relentless pursuit of innovation. Not since January 2022 had Apple reached such heights, and this remarkable accomplishment further solidified its position as one of the most influential and valuable companies in the world. Apple's stock performance on Friday was nothing short of impressive. Closing at $193.97, it recorded a notable increase of 2.3%, with the stock even reaching a new all-time high of $194.48. This surge in Apple's stock price was fueled by a combination of factors, including the growing investor enthusiasm for growth stocks and the unwavering confidence in Apple's ability to conquer new markets. Investors' renewed faith in growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, has been a driving force behind the recent market surge. The allure of exponential growth potential and groundbreaking innovations has captivated market participants, leading to increased allocations in companies like Apple. Moreover, Apple's unwavering commitment to excellence and its track record of success have bolstered investor confidence, making it an attractive choice for many. Apple's ability to penetrate and thrive in new markets has further fueled investor optimism. The company's forays into various sectors, such as healthcare, augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles, have been met with great anticipation. Investors believe that Apple's strong brand, vast resources, and exceptional product ecosystem position it favorably to succeed in these emerging industries. This confidence in Apple's long-term prospects has propelled its stock to new heights. As the market continues to evolve and navigate through various challenges, the impressive performance of the Nasdaq and Apple serves as a beacon of hope and optimism. Their achievements not only symbolize the resilience of the technology sector but also provide a glimmer of possibility for future growth and innovation. Investors are closely watching these developments, eager to capitalize on the momentum and potential opportunities that lie ahead in the ever-evolving world of technology. Apple stock daily chart On the last day of the second quarter, investors displayed a heightened level of interest, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's closely observed indicators, which pointed to a moderation in US inflation. According to a report released by the Commerce Department, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a 3.8% increase, lower than the 4.3% figure recorded in April. When excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, the core PCE index saw a growth of 0.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.4% rise. BEA, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index The release of this data has instilled optimism among investors, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve's cycle of raising interest rates could be approaching its conclusion. The decrease in Treasury yields, which was triggered by the alleviation of inflationary pressures, has played a role in fostering this positive market sentiment. Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas, emphasized the impact of declining yields on the overall market conditions. In terms of performance, the Nasdaq index delivered its strongest first-half showing in four decades, delivering a remarkable gain of over 31%. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index, comprising prominent technology stocks, achieved its highest first-half gain on record, surging by approximately 39%. On Friday, the S&P 500's growth index experienced a rise of 1.4%. Alongside Apple, other popular stocks favored by investors, including Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, significantly contributed to the positive performance of the S&P 500. These stocks registered gains ranging from 1.6% to 3.6%, capitalizing on their impressive rallies propelled by strong earnings and the increasing interest in artificial intelligence. S&P 500 indice daily chart NASDAQ indice daily chart As we embark on the first full week of July, there are several noteworthy events lined up on the economic calendar. One such event is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, scheduled for Tuesday at 5:30 am GMT+1. This decision holds significant interest as market participants eagerly await to see whether the central bank will increase its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.35% or maintain the status quo. The RBA's rate decisions have been closely monitored, particularly due to the surprise 25bp rate hikes in the previous two meetings. The most recent monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed a 5.6% increase in the twelve months leading up to May. Although this figure is lower than April's 6.8% and market expectations of 6.1%, it still plays a role in shaping the RBA's decision-making process. Additionally, strong employment data and uncertainties surrounding China's economic recovery have contributed to a 63% probability of the RBA keeping rates unchanged this week. Market participants will be closely watching the outcome of the RBA rate decision as it has the potential to impact not only the Australian economy but also global market sentiments. Australia interest rate In the United States, the upcoming releases of the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will draw considerable attention. The Services PMI has been indicating contractionary conditions for several months, and the release scheduled for Monday at 3:00 pm GMT+1 is expected to continue this trend. Forecasts suggest a range between 48.3 and 46.7 for the Services PMI. On Thursday at 3:00 pm GMT+1, the ISM Services PMI will be released, which has remained in expansionary territory but experienced a decline from 51.9 in April to 50.3 in May. The median expectation for June's release is 51.0. It is worth noting that the past three months have exhibited a range between 52.0 and 50.0 in the Services PMI readings. These PMI releases provide valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors in the US. Market participants will be closely monitoring these indicators as they can influence market sentiment and provide indications of economic trends and business activity levels. US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) One of the most highly anticipated data releases in the United States this week will be related to the labor market indicators. On a day preceding the non-farm payroll report for June, both the ADP non-farm employment change and JOLTS job openings data will be published at 1:30 pm GMT+1. Market participants will closely watch these indicators as they provide crucial insights into the state of the labor market. They serve as important precursors to the official non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The median consensus among analysts is for an addition of 225,000 new payrolls in June, which marks a decrease from the robust figure of 339,000 recorded in May. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings are projected to match the previous month's value of 0.3%. It is worth noting that a strong jobs report for June would increase the likelihood of a rate hike later in the month. These labor market indicators are closely monitored as they provide valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy, the pace of job creation, and potential wage growth. The data can significantly impact market sentiment and influence monetary policy decisions. US Unemployment rate In its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the Federal Funds target rate at its existing level. However, the committee signaled a hawkish stance, indicating a potentially more aggressive approach to monetary policy. This was reflected in the FOMC's dot plot, which outlines individual policymakers' projections for interest rates. Based on the dot plot from May, the FOMC projected two additional rate increases by the end of 2023. This suggests a tightening monetary policy in the near future. Market participants have taken note of this guidance, and as of now, they are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 26. Following the anticipated rate hike in July, there is speculation that the FOMC may pause its tightening cycle and potentially even consider rate cuts in 2024. However, it's important to note that market expectations and projections can change based on incoming economic data and the evolving policy stance of the Federal Reserve. These market expectations regarding future rate movements are crucial for investors and can significantly impact various asset classes and market sentiment. Traders and market participants closely monitor such probabilities and projections to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
10
AUDUSD: This bounce is a good short opportunity.AUDUSD rebounded late last week and reached again the 1D MA50 on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 46.104, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 23.912). This is the first rebound after the June 16th High, which was on an overbought 1D RSI and formed a Lower High inside the wide Channel Down pattern. The neutral technicals indicate that this is potentially the ideal short entry on an extended sell sequence that targets at least the bottom of the Channel Down. We are going short on the next green 1D candle and our target will be much lower, the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 0.63350). Buy again near the RSI oversold line. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
3
AUDCAD - BROKEN CHANNEL📉Hey Traders👋🏻 The AUDCAD Price Reached a Major Resistance Level (0.91064 - 0.90637) and Formed an Ascending Channel✔ Currently, The Price Reject To Create New Higher High, The Last Higher Low is Broken (Break of Structure) Moreover, The Support Line of The Channel is Broken! So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉 i'm waiting for a retest... ----------- TARGET: 0.88315🎯 ___________ if you agreed with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!
Short
by Hsan_BenAhmed
4
AUDCAD: Classic Bearish Reversal Explained🇦🇺🇨🇦 AUDCAD reached a solid horizontal resistance last week. The market was steadily growing within a rising wedge pattern. After the test of structure, a bearish move initiated and the pair managed to close below the support of the wedge. Because the pair is trading in a global bearish trend, the violation may trigger a trend-following movement. Goals: 0.901 / 0.895 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
4
AUDCHF: Sell as it approaches the 1D MA200.AUDCHF is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for over 1 year but the 1D time frame is technicalls bullish (RSI = 68.224, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 39.835). The reason is that since May 1st, the Channel Down is having its bullish leg for the new LH (Lower High). The previous two LH were formed on the 1D MA200. As the RSI is about to cross into the overbought territory (over 70.000) and the price is approaching the 1D MA200 for the first time since January 27th, start selling. The minimum decline from a LH has been -7.50%, giving us a target of TP = 0.575500. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
6
EURAUD: May experience a long term trend shiftEURAUD is touching at the moment the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that has been in place for 10 months. The 1D time frame is technically almost oversold (RSI = 32.980, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 36.222) with the RSI in particular last time it was that low was in July 28th 2022. If the price doesn't rebound on the current level, we expect a test of the 1D MA200. In that case, we may see a long term trend shift from the Channel Up to a newly formed Channel Down, which on the next rebound near the 1D MA50, will give us a low risk sell entry targeted at S2 (TP = 1.52650). If the price closes a 1D candle over the 0.5 Fibonacci level, we will buy the Channel Down break out and target the Resistance (TP = 1.67850). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
2
GBPAUD: Getting rejected on the 1D MA50. Potentially a very bearGBPAUD crossed under the 1D MA50 three days ago for the first time in three and a half months and today upon a retest as Resistance it is initially failing. With the 1D timeframe technically neutral (RSI = 45.941, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 27.184), if the price gets rejected then selling should transition into the 1W timeframe as well and start testing the lower Support levels. The HL trendline is in between, so you may sell after it breaks if you want. The first target is S1 (TP1 = 1.84000) and the second is S3 (TP2 = 1.815000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG Growth Concerns hamper Commodity Currencies MUFG notes important uncertainty over the outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. On balance it expects that the RBA will not hike rates again. As far as the currency is concerned, it adds; “We continue to see AUD/USD moving higher but assume underperformance relative to core G10 as growth globally and in Australia remains challenging.” MUFG notes that the government and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have revised their GDP forecasts and no longer expect a recession, but is doubtful whether the upgrade is justified. It adds; “These conditions imply the government and the RBNZ’s GDP forecasts could be unrealistic. NZD/USD gains as the dollar weakens could be curtailed as aggressive monetary tightening hits growth.” MUFG expects that weaker risk conditions will hamper the Canadian dollar with forecasts of USD/CAD declines based on US weakness rather than Canadian currency gains.
Long
by thunderpips