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Australiandollar

💵Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc💵 Analyze(Short term,11/18/2022)It seems The Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc is making a Symmetrical triangle near the heavy resistance zone. When I saw the Bearish Engulfing Candlestick pattern on the upper line of the symmetrical triangle, I am expecting the Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc will go down at least to lower line of triangle. 🔅Australian Dollar/ Swiss Franc ( AUDCHF ) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe
Short
by pejman_zwin
AUD catches a breather as risk tone moderatesDespite the improvement in risk sentiment from Monday, it’s worth noting that significant concerns surrounding China’s coronavirus situation remain, keeping risks tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, the improved risk tone has provided a welcomed respite for the AUD, copping its recent decline with AUDUSD holding steady throughout the session above the 0.66 handle. Another beneficiary of the improved risk tone is NZD, which is receiving an additional boost from expectations for another aggressive rate hike from the RBNZ at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Consensus looks for a 75 basis points rate hike from the central bank, taking the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Indeed, the RBNZ will be the next high impact risk event in the next Asia Pacific session. Before then, central banks will still remain a key theme and focus, with comments from a plethora of central bank members throughout today’s European and US sessions. Today’s speakers will include RBA Governor Lowe, Fed’s Mester, Fed’s George and Fed’s Bullard.
by thunderpips
7
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, the only major data highlight is the S&P Global Flash PMIs and perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
4
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Even though most recent jobs print offset all of the jobs that was lost in 2H22, the housing market still poses big risks for the Canadian economy. With a big increase in variable-rate mortgages after the pandemic, lots of consumers will be pressed on their disposable income after mortgages need to be reset (and that is happening while price pressures are still uncomfortably high). Furthermore, despite hawkish comments from Gov Macklem heading into the Oct meeting, the bank surprised markets with a 50bsp hike when markets were pricing in a 75bsp hike. The bank also stated there is increased risks of a recession during 1H23. As a result of this, as well as the fact that the CAD is still relatively close to its cycle high (at the index level), we have changed our bias for the CAD to weak bearish from Neutral. The CAD’s failure to gain any upside even after a slight re-acceleration in both headline and core CPI this week was a clear signal that our fundamental bearish bias for the CAD is correct and we’ll be looking for more short opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. A bid surprise miss in Wednesday’s CPI should seal the deal for a 25bsp hike and should put more pressure on the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk offsentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. A surprise beat in CPI this week could see markets lean towards a 50bsp and support CAD (but we’ll look to fade strength). BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD has shifted to bearish. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data, high inflation, stress in the housing market, exposure to a slowing US economy) we think the bias is titled lower for the currency from here. Also, with the currency still relatively close to cycle peaks, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
AUDCHF Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting the 1D MA200The AUDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since February 25 2021 High. At the moment, it is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but appears to have completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that is a technical formation typically found on market bottoms. In fact, with the RSI on the 1W double bottoming and rebounding, the current pattern resembles the IH&S of the August 20 201 bottom. As you see, that pattern also trading the Right Shoulder around the 1D MA50 and then rebounded and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We expect the 1D MA200 to get hit once more before a pull-back and is currently our medium-term target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
💵Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze (11/14/2022)!!!After a fake break breakdown, it seems the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar breaks(valid) the descending channel this time. I expect the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar to grow at least until the resistance zone in the coming days. 🔅Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar ( AUDNZD ) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
6
EURAUD Big Sell opportunityThe EURAUD pair had a very strong August 26 - October 14 rally and since then it has been on a short-term Channel Down (Lower Highs/ Lower Lows). This volatility/ consolidation has been a distinct characteristic of both previous tops (Lower Highs) within the long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern that in June 2020. A break below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) would be a break-out sell signal targeting the Higher Lows trend-line (dashed line), which was hit in both previous sequences. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
GBPAUD Sell opportunity below this levelThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the start of 2022 and most recently (October 17 and 28) it hit its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This has turned the short-term price action into a smaller Channel Down (red), which is loosely supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and resembles the pattern of January 28 to February 23. That eventually broke downwards aggressively to the bottom of the Channel Down (blue) once the Support from the previous Low broke. See how similar the 1D RSI sequences also are. The respective Support (1) on the current set-up is at 1.73500. A candle close below it, eyes Support (2) at 1.65000. As long as Support 1 is intact though, and more importantly the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, another bounce to the top of the long-term Channel Down is possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
2
AUDNZD has more room to dropThe AUDNZD pair followed exactly the pattern we presented on our previous analysis on September 23 and after completing a standard +4.70% rise on the blue Channel Up, it broke below it: The pattern that was our benchmark on this accurate projection was the January - July 2021 Megaphone. After a rebound on the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the price got sold-off to a new Low on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That extension on today's pattern is just below 1.07000. Only a 1W MACD Bullish Cross can invalidate the selling. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
InvestMate|AUD/USD Before the launch🦘AUD/USD Before the launch. 🦘It all started with my last post in which I predicted an upward reaction but didn't think we would go any lower. 🦘Everything would have been beautiful rates were raised as the market expected. 🦘With the market starting to discount a weakening of the dollar followed by a press conference by Jerome Powell spooked the markets with a hawkish tone, which first triggered a sharp wave of dollar weakness, and Powell's words were followed by a speculative attack to strengthen the dollar. 🦘After all the fall, the market started to return to discounting the dollar's downward scenario. 🦘Thanks to this, we scored a really big correction which even provokes to go even higher. 🦘On the horizon is the 10 November inflation reading, which I think will positively surprise investors by giving another reason to slow down interest rate rises. 🦘Looking at the long term perspective measuring 2 waves. One from covid bottom and the other from peak to local bottom. 🦘A really interesting level of 0.236 of the declining wave has appeared on the horizon which falls perfectly at 0.66. 🦘Level really highly likely for the coming week if the uptrend continues.... 🦘I would also like to point out that we finally broke out of the 0.618 level of the wave from covid bottom to peak. on which we repeatedly rocked up and down 🦘Can we say that the path to patterns remains open? 🦘I hope so. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
by InvestMate
7
Risk Off Dominates as concerns over China’s latest outbreak riseThe risk off tone dominated price action as growing concerns over China’s latest coronavirus outbreak remained in focus, keeping the antipodeans pressured while supporting safe havens. Alongside the risk off tone, AUD was further pressured by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Bullock, who stated that although rates would rise further, they are nearing the point where they could “sit and wait” for a while. Given the above, AUDUSD briefly slipped below the 0.64 handle, while AUDJPY fell below the 94.00 handle, and EURAUD reclaimed the 1.56 handle. Looking ahead, today’s main event will be US CPI in the upcoming US session. However, there are also central bank speakers scheduled throughout the day, including BoE’s Ramsden and Tenreyro, Fed’s Mester and George, and BoC Governor Macklem.
by thunderpips
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
AUDCAD Rebounding with the 1D MA50 being the key to a break-out.The AUDCAD pair has on a 2 day rebound after the pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 27. This couldn't have validated better our previous analysis on September 20: As you see, the 1 year Lower Lows Zone is holding and as long as it does, the price should push for a new Lower High or at least a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Practically, we can only trade this based on how the 1D MA50 pivots. A 1D closing above the 1D MA50 would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200, while a further closing above it, would target the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) that had its most recent test on April 05. At the same time, the more the price fails to close above the 1D MA50, the stronger of a Sell Signal it becomes, targeting the 1 year Lower Lows Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
2
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period. Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons. "Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report. A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons. Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
SGX:FEF1!
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDJPY The Lower Highs the key to our trades.The AUDJPY pair is currently trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), being the pivot since the price turned sideways during Summer. The long-term trend remains bullish however within a 1 year Channel Up (better viewed with the Fibonacci levels as you see) with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting. Recently it has formed a Lower Highs pattern again with the 90.740 level as the Support. That seems to be consistent with the previous Lower Highs of June-July that broke upwards in late August and hit the 98.700 Resistance. As a result, if the price breaks above the current Lower Highs we expect again a push to the 98.700 Resistance. On the other hand, a break below the Support, would mean a break below the 1D MA200 as well, and that would change completely the trend to long-term bearish. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
1