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Australiandollar

💵British Pound/Australian Dollar💵 Analyze(11/07/2022)!!!British Pound/Australian Dollar was able to make a Bullish Gartley Harmonic Pattern on PRZ(Price Reversal Zone)!!! I expect the British Pound/Australian will go up at least until the 🎯targets🎯 that I specified in my chart. 🔅British Pound/Australian Dollar Analyze ( GBPAUD ) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
InvestMate|AUD/NZD Declines Declines and post-declines🦘🦘AUD/NZD Declines Declines and post-declines. 🦘This post is my long-awaited follow-up to a post I put up some time ago in which I wrote about the coming declines. 🦘The declines have arrived and in the current post I will introduce you to a zone that could play a key role in the coming weeks. 🦘We have broken through the resistance zone and are moving dynamically towards the support zone. 🦘This support zone was determined by the fibo level of 0.618 of the entire upward wave from the covid bottom to the 2022 peak. 🦘My target is located in this area. 🦘The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of the decline to the vicinity of the support zone level. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
3
InvestMate|EUR/AUD We are falling to a strong support zone💶💶EUR/AUD We are falling to a strong support zone. 💶At last, after a long accumulation between levels, it is time for a decisive direction. 💶Looking at the size of the current candles and adding to the fact that the Euro is falling on most pairs, I can safely say that it is time to test the local support levels on this pair. 💶I determined the nearest support zone based on the fibo level of the entire downward wave from the 2008 peak to the 2012 bottom. 💶As you can see, over the last few weeks we have bounced repeatedly from the resistance zone set based on the 0.236 level of the entire downward wave from the 2020 peak to the 2022 low. 💶It looks like we have currently bounced off it for good 💶The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the declines on a wave of weakening of the euro to reach the local support zone marked on the chart. At that point I will be watching closely to see how the price will react in order to predict the next move. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
11
InvestMate|AUD/USD US Dollar is strengthening💲💲AUD/USD US Dollar is strengthening 💲This time it' s time for AUD/USD 💲As I wrote in a previous post about the coming declines. I wasn't wrong 💲AUD/USD in my opinion is facing a significant downward wave. 💲The price has during today started to continue its declines after performing an upward correction of the second downward impulse. 💲The nearest support was determined by a cluster of two fibo levels. The first is the level of 0.236 of the entire wave from the 2021 peak to the 2022 bottom. The second level is 0.887 of the entire wave from the 2008 bottom to the 2011 peak. 💲I determined the resistance zone above based on the level of 0.618 of the whole wave from the 2001 bottom to the 2008 peak. 💲The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of declines to reach a support zone in the coming days. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💲 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
19
InvestMate|GBP/AUD Play for trend continuation💷💷GBP/AUD Play for trend continuation. 💷This time it's time for GBP/AUD. 💷 Looking at the behaviour of the price movement and the continuation of the strong uptrend since the end of September, I am inclined to continue the upward movement. 💷As you can see, there is a strong line of resistance ahead, determined by a cluster of three fibo levels. The first is the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave from the 2013 bottom to the 2015 peak. The second is the 0.382 level from the 2015 peak to the 2016 bottom and the final 3rd level is the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave from the 2016 bottom to the 2020 peak. 💷 I determined the support zone based on the fibo level of 0.618 of the entire upward wave from the 2016 bottom to the 2020 peak. 💷The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the upside towards the resistance zone. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💷 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
14
🦘AUD/JPY May break out🦘AUD/JPY May break out. 🦘My perspective on the AUD/JPY pair has changed as a result of the in-depth analysis I have done. 🦘In the current post I would like to share with you my perspective for the coming weeks. 🦘As you can see from the chart AUD/JPY has been stuck in a accumulation, for a good 7 months. 🦘Looking at the behaviour of other pairs with the Japanese Yen, I allow myself to think that we may yet see new peaks on the AUD pair. 🦘The price is currently forming a triangle formation. 🦘I am very curious if we will see a sharp breakout upwards. 🦘That's what I would expect after such a long accumulation and a returning desire to weaken the Yen. 🦘Target I see near the resistance zone, determined by the outer fibo level of 1.618 of the entire largest recent downward wave. 🦘There is also local resistance ahead, determined by where the price has repeatedly turned back. 🦘I determined the support zone based on the cluster of fibo levels 0.618 of the entire wave of the largest downward correction and 0.5 of the entire upward wave following this correction. 🦘The scenario I am playing out is a gradual strengthening of AUD against JPY and an exit from the accumulation to set new highs, but I do not exclude taking a smaller target if the situation stops looking as I assumed. 🦘I will add an update post if there is a change in my perspective. 🦘 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
13
InvestMate|AUD/USD Falling to support💲💲AUD/USD Falling to support 💲Post is a direct continuation of my previous post: 💲The wave of weakness on the Australian Dollar has already begun. 💲Friday's session brought us a retest of the resistance zone after which we started a rally towards the south where I find a strong support zone. 💲I determined the support zone based on the 0.382 level of the entire upward wave and the 1:1 level of the largest downward correction in the current long-term uptrend 💲The support zone visible on the chart I determined on the basis of the space between the two levels 0.5 and 0.618 of the current downward wave, these were also the places where price found resistance many times in the past The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the decline, I also do not rule out a retracement of the resistance zone, but ultimately I see the price in the support zone within the next week. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
6
InvestMate|AUD/USD Time for declines💲💲AUD/USD Time for declines 💲Post is a direct continuation of the previous post on AUD/USD: 💲After we almost passed the 1:1 level of the biggest correction in the uptrend. 💲We bounced back to double tops again. 💲The time has come to attack the declines once again. 💲This time from a slightly higher ceiling than last time. 💲The support zone again remains on 1:1 level, and this time I also added the fibo level of 0.382 of the entire upward wave. 💲I determined the resistance zone based on the recent tops and the 0.5 level of the whole wave from covid bottom to top. 💲The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the decline to the support zone with consideration of minor corrections along the way. 💲*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
11
AUDCAD Close to change directionAlmost a month and a half ago, and the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar is still on the rise. Will the trend change at the beginning of next week, or is there more rise for this pair? My point: It is an opportunity worth taking and risking (little risk) with a small contract and waiting two to three weeks. In your opinion, will the trend change in the coming days, or is there an opinion of the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar? The four golden rules of trading 1 Don't be greedy 2 Always use stop loss 3 Never add other positions to the losing positions 4 Use a suitable lot for your account ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Short
by zaidhatem
💵Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc💵 Analyze(Short term,11/18/2022)It seems The Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc is making a Symmetrical triangle near the heavy resistance zone. When I saw the Bearish Engulfing Candlestick pattern on the upper line of the symmetrical triangle, I am expecting the Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc will go down at least to lower line of triangle. 🔅Australian Dollar/ Swiss Franc ( AUDCHF ) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe
Short
by pejman_zwin
AUD catches a breather as risk tone moderatesDespite the improvement in risk sentiment from Monday, it’s worth noting that significant concerns surrounding China’s coronavirus situation remain, keeping risks tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, the improved risk tone has provided a welcomed respite for the AUD, copping its recent decline with AUDUSD holding steady throughout the session above the 0.66 handle. Another beneficiary of the improved risk tone is NZD, which is receiving an additional boost from expectations for another aggressive rate hike from the RBNZ at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Consensus looks for a 75 basis points rate hike from the central bank, taking the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Indeed, the RBNZ will be the next high impact risk event in the next Asia Pacific session. Before then, central banks will still remain a key theme and focus, with comments from a plethora of central bank members throughout today’s European and US sessions. Today’s speakers will include RBA Governor Lowe, Fed’s Mester, Fed’s George and Fed’s Bullard.
by thunderpips
7
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, the only major data highlight is the S&P Global Flash PMIs and perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
4
AUD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. But the continued rumours and speculation of a pivot away from Covid-zero policy has given Chinese equities, China-linked commodities and the Antipodean currencies a boost. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. In the week ahead, risk sentiment is always important, but the main driver to watch will be any further developments regarding the China’s potential reopening. We also have Wage and Jobs data, but both will take a back seat to China developments. Take note that positioning remains stretched short which could see outside upside reactions on good news. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcements of a reduction of strict Covid-zero policies could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong push back from Chinese officials against speculation of a reopening could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. However, the rumours of a potential move away from Covid-zero policy has been a key driver for the AUD. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Even though most recent jobs print offset all of the jobs that was lost in 2H22, the housing market still poses big risks for the Canadian economy. With a big increase in variable-rate mortgages after the pandemic, lots of consumers will be pressed on their disposable income after mortgages need to be reset (and that is happening while price pressures are still uncomfortably high). Furthermore, despite hawkish comments from Gov Macklem heading into the Oct meeting, the bank surprised markets with a 50bsp hike when markets were pricing in a 75bsp hike. The bank also stated there is increased risks of a recession during 1H23. As a result of this, as well as the fact that the CAD is still relatively close to its cycle high (at the index level), we have changed our bias for the CAD to weak bearish from Neutral. The CAD’s failure to gain any upside even after a slight re-acceleration in both headline and core CPI this week was a clear signal that our fundamental bearish bias for the CAD is correct and we’ll be looking for more short opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. A bid surprise miss in Wednesday’s CPI should seal the deal for a 25bsp hike and should put more pressure on the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk offsentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. A surprise beat in CPI this week could see markets lean towards a 50bsp and support CAD (but we’ll look to fade strength). BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD has shifted to bearish. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data, high inflation, stress in the housing market, exposure to a slowing US economy) we think the bias is titled lower for the currency from here. Also, with the currency still relatively close to cycle peaks, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips