Get started

Australiandollar

AUDUSD Trading plan around the current Support.The AUDUSD pair got heavily rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the worse than expected CPI report. This is the first update we make on the pair since our August 05 analysis, that targeted the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following the Wedge break: Our target has been completed and the price has entered since a new corrective pattern that is supported by the former Lower Highs trend-line of the Falling Wedge. Being so close to the 0.66800 Support, a buy on a tight SL on that level is a high reward trade, with our target being the (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line. In order to extend buying beyond that point, we would like to see the 1D MA200 break. On the other hand, we will be selling if a candle closes below the 0.66800 Support and target the bottom of the Channel Down. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD - The Australian dollar fell while bonds rallied on Thursday, as markets scaled back bets on more aggressive rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, after a speech by governor Lowe opened the door to a slower policy at tightening going forward. EUR/ECB – The euro held above a twenty-year low on Thursday after the ECB raised interest rates by a record 75 basis points, taking the deposit rate above 0% for the first time since 2012, in an attempt to tame surging inflation. The central bank said it expected to continue raising rates in the foreseeable future to dampen demand as it prioritized the fight against inflation even as the Eurozone heads towards a likely winter recession.
by thunderpips
1
AUDUSD forecast and signal The price chart of the Australian dollar vs the US dollar continues its downtrend and moves to reach the weekly and daily resistance zone. Below the minimum price of the latest two-hour candles is the right price to enter a sell trade. Good luck.. --------------------------------------------------------- Please write any advice or suggestions. Dear friends, request any cryptocurrency pair, currencies pair for forex, and any index that you want to be analyzed and ask any questions. Thanks for your attention
Short
by Arash-RK
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recovery, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI , or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Concerns about consumers & growth means the RBA have been cautious to confirm STIR market expectations. If they ‘only’ hike by 50bsp without higher terminal rate forecasts we would expect the AUD to push lower out of the meeting. BIGGER PICTURE The outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar , so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst. With a 50bsp fully priced, without an overly hawkish RBA policy statement the AUD looks vulnerable to more downside. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their August meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Consumer and business confidence from the start of the year has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. With a lot of tightening already priced for the RBNZ it would take a lot to surprise markets on the hawkish side, but with growing calls of a dovish pivot, reluctance from the RBNZ on that front could prove supportive in upcoming meetings. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook, we would favour short-term opportunities in the NZD in line with short-term sentiment as opposed to med-term positions.
by thunderpips
2
AUD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recovery, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI, or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Concerns about consumers & growth means the RBA have been cautious to confirm STIR market expectations. If they ‘only’ hike by 50bsp without higher terminal rate forecasts we would expect the AUD to push lower out of the meeting. BIGGER PICTURE The outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar, so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst. With a 50bsp fully priced, without an overly hawkish RBA policy statement the AUD looks vulnerable to more downside. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. But this past week’s push higher in yields was a friendly reminder that inflation and yield differentials remain a major downside risk for the JPY, despite the negative cyclical outlook. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities (which means keeping cyclical developments in the US in mind as a key influence on US10Y and thus the JPY as well). It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
💵Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen 💵Analyze !!!Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen was reversed from the top of the ascending channel by a Shooting 💫Star💫 Candlestick Pattern. I expect that the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen will go down to the lower line of ascending channel. 🔅Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( AUDJPY ) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
6
💵Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen 💵Analyze (Update)!!! As I said before, the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen started to fall from the top of the ascending channel with Shooting 💫Star💫 Candlestick Pattern and finally managed to break the bottom line of the ascending channel. As a result, the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen's expectation of my green color decreases. 🔅Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( AUDJPY ) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
EUR AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro . Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak. AUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recover, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI, or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, but concerns about consumers & growth means any overly dovish comments could trigger some bearish reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar, so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst.
by thunderpips
1
AUDNZD: Important Structure Breakout 🇦🇺🇳🇿 Important thing happened this night on AUDNZD pair: the price broke and closed above a wide daily supply area. The broken structure turned into a support now. The next goal for buyers is the narrow area around 1.128 level. It is based on a key monthly structure and 5 years' high. I will be patiently waiting for an occasional retest of the broken structure to buy AUDNZD. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
AUDCHF On the verge of a break-outThe AUDCHF pair seems to be repeating the October 2021 - January 2022 fractal both on candle and RSI terms on the 1D time-frame (both recording a -7.50% decline). The price has been closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 15. A break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the Lower Highs trend-line and (under conditions that we will analyze when the time comes), the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, a break below 0.6500 (just below the July 01 low), would be a bearish break-out signal towards the 2.0 Fib lower extension (0.63000). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1