AUDUSD: Classic Bullish Setup 🇦🇺🇺🇸
Hey traders,
🟢AUDUSD is trading in a minor bullish trend.
Reaching a new high, the price started a correctional movement within a bullish flag pattern from the beginning of the week.
Yesterday, the price broke the resistance of the flag,
now, we see its retest.
I expect a bullish continuation to 0.695
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Australiandollar
AUDNZD sell opportunity Price is consolidating,
Price will eventually break above, there was still untested level, we can sell at the QM level.
Also, we need to BE CAREFUL on the Supply zone, price may still move that level,
Stoploss above the Highest High.
For trend confirmation, HL need to be break below it, if we in profit, just breakeven. Tq and happy trading,
Don't forget to click Follow button 😁
NZD getting strong
GBPAUD: Important Decision Ahead 🇬🇧🇦🇺
Hey traders,
GBPAUD is approaching a solid rising trend line on a daily time frame.
Depending on the reaction of the price to that, I see 2 potential scenarios:
If the price breaks and closes below that,
I will expect a bearish continuation to 1.731 level.
If bulls violate a resistance line of a tiny rising wedge pattern and close above that,
I will expect a bullish movement at least to 1.765
I believe that probabilities are on a bullish side.
However, let's see what will happen!
What do you expect?
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GBPAUD: Bearish Breakout & Bearish Continuation 🇬🇧🇦🇺
Hey traders,
So it turned out that GBPAUD broke and closed below a rising trend line that we spotted yesterday.
Now we expect a further bearish continuation.
Goal - 1.7314
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EURAUD Sell signal confirmedThe EURAUD pair got a massive rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on July 01 and since last week, it hasn't even regained its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) suffering a strong sell-off.
The long-term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone, technically such rejection should push the price to a new Lower Low. Based on a similar fractal last February, we can go as low as the 2.5 Fibonacci extension. We have a more moderate target on the diverging Lower Lows trend-line at just above 1.4000.
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GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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AUDNZD Channel Up vs Head and ShouldersThe AUDNZD pair has been trading within a Channel Up ever since the November 19 2021 Low. Two upper and lower tolerance levels of 1.236 and -0.236 have been accounted for. This time though, as the price is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 20, using it as a pivot, a new pattern has emerged. That is a Head and Shoulders (H&S).
That is so far contained within the Channel Up but a break below it can see the price testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 17. Our trading plan is based on the break-out (candle close) approach. A break below the lower tolerance level of the Channel constitutes a sell signal towards the -1.0 Fibonacci extension (1.075), in which case the H&S pattern prevails. Until that happens, we continue being within the dominant Channel Up, hence bullish towards a new long-term Higher High near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (1.1383).
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AUD - ST - Where to next?The heat is on!!! Again, amazing moves!
Triangle formation, we have CPI coming tomorrow which is expected to be as strong as it is globally, keep an eye on Aussie break out to either direction. However, be careful of false break outs as well as that check HT frame for further confluence.
All the best,
TJ
AUDCAD Testing the 1 year Support Zone!The AUDCAD pair dropped sharply yesterday, negating the gains of the past 5 days combined. In doing so, it touched again the Lower Lows zone trend-line that started after the July 30 2021 Low and has been supporting with rebounds ever since.
With the 1W RSI well within its own Buy Zone since July 01, this is a solid buy opportunity at least on the short-term towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break above can see a buying extension to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Long-term buy positions can only be taken after a weekly candle closing above the 1D MA200.
On the other hand, a break below the Lower Lows can be taken advantage with a sell hedge short-term, targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension.
Previous AUDCAD signal:
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AUDJPY breaking above its ChannelThe AUDJPY pair has been trading withing a Channel Down since the June 08 High and has found lately support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In 1D RSI terms, it appears to be replicating the October 20 2021 - January 28 2022 pattern, which eventually broke to the upside and reached its 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we are turning into buyers on this pair, targeting 97.900 initially.
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GBPAUD: Classic Bearish Setup 🇬🇧🇦🇺
Hey traders,
GBPAUD broke and closed below a solid horizontal structure support yesterday.
This night, we see its retest.
The price formed a double top on that and broke its neckline then.
I expect a further decline, at least to 1.746
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ASX 200 drills lower thanks to commodity stocksAustralia’s main share index, the ASX 200, closed lower on Wednesday by 0.5%. This fall could have been a lot worse If not for technology and financial stocks mitigating the rout in other major Australian sectors.
Australian Securities Exchange’s Metals & Mining Index fell by a massive 5.6%. Heavyweights in the mining sectors, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) lead the way, falling by 7.4%, 6.6%, and 4.9%, respectively.
The ASX Energy Index also declined by 5.8% as crude oil prices plummeted 9% overnight Tuesday. Two of the most significant index drivers, Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), slumped by 6.9% and 3.7%, respectively.
Virus and lockdown concerns appear to be the main factors suppressing commodity and energy stocks in Australia.
Domestic tech stocks did briefly push the ASX 200 into green territory intraday but were ultimately overcome by the strong headwinds of commodity stocks. The big tech winner of the day was Zip Co (ASX: ZIP), rising by a phenomenal 12.8%. Financials were also up by 0.9% as three of the "Big-four" seek to benefit from the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting its benchmark interest rate by another 50-basis points.
On the technical side, we can see on the daily chart that the ASX200 has been on a clear downtrend since April.
The index is currently moving in a tight range between 6700 and 6560.
A break above the resistance at 6700 could potentially retest the 6810-level area, creating a lower high of the downtrend before continuing to the downside. In consideration of the long-term scenario, a close below 6560, depending on market sentiments, could eventually drive the index down to the 6000 psychological support level.
The ASX 200 might struggle to maintain short-term upside movements. At least until China moves past its Covid concerns and lockdowns in the country no longer threatens to sideline its commercial operations and consumer demand.
AUDUSD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇦🇺🇺🇸
Hey traders,
AUDUSD is currently trading within a peculiar zone of confluence:
we see a perfect match between a recently broken horizontal supply area and a falling trend line.
I expect a bearish accumulation within the underlined area.
Your confirmation to short will be a double top formation on 1H time frame.
0.6844 - 0.6854 is its neckline.
Wait for its bearish breakout (you need an hourly candle close below),
then sell on a retest.
Target will be 0.677
Stop will be 0.69
If the price breaks a yellow zone to the upside, the setup will be invalid.
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Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
AUDUSD at the bottom of long-term Channel Down. Critical test!The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the February 25 2021 market top. As we pointed out on our previous analysis on this pair, the trend remains bearish unless we get a candle closing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
In fact as you see, we got an emphatic rejection on the 1D MA200 instead, the 2nd within this 1.5 year long Channel Down pattern. Right now the price is on the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of this pattern, having marginally broken below the 0.67780 Gap. A closing below the Channel opens the way for the next Gap around 0.64000, in a similar sell-off fashion as the March 2020 break-down.
As a result, a tight SL buy here is most optimal with low risk, targeting the 0.5 Fib (middle of Channel Down) and then break-out but if we close above the 1D MA200. But if the SL gets hit be quick to reverse to a sell targeting the 0.6400 Gap but take no risk, constantly moving the SL on break-even/ then on profit.
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🦘Australian Rate Hikes vs European Risks Worsening 🔥💤Australia’s central bank hikes interest rates for the third month in a row.
AUD KEY POINTS:
Wrapping up its July policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.35%, marking 125 basis points of hikes since May and the fastest series of moves since 1994.
“The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead,” said RBA Governor Philip Lowe in a statement.
The hike was widely expected in markets and the local dollar eased slightly in reaction to $0.6863 while futures narrowed the odds on another half-point hike in August.
EUR KEY POINTS:
Euro plunges to two-decade low vs dollar:
As expected and as mentioned here one too many times. Since our perfect short on EURUSD at 1.23
No surprise as we even called for parity more recently .
It will continue to be very difficult for the euro to rally in any meaningful way with the energy picture worsening and risks to economic growth increasing notably. Europe will pay the main bill for Ukraine!
Survey data showed business growth across the euro zone slowed further last month and forward-looking indicators suggested the region could slip into decline this quarter as the cost of living crisis keeps consumers wary.
Not to mention that if Biden indeed eases tensions with China, Australia could benefit greatly.
Definition of a Forex trade here and unlike EURUSD leaving less room for profit, EURAUD looks great.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
AUS200 : DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Welcome back Traders,
Detailed analysis from INDEX_INSIDERS Team.
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