AUD/USD - Potential Rebound from Support on 15-Minute ChartOn the 15-minute chart, if AUD/USD pulls back to the current support level, there’s a strong possibility of a rebound. This support has held well in previous sessions, and a bounce from this zone could signal a bullish move. However, it’s important to watch for confirmation with bullish candlestick patterns or volume increase before considering entry. A break below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Australiandollar
GBPAUD Sell signal short-term.The GBPAUD pair is trading within a Channel Up since the start of the year, currently expanding its 2nd Bearish Leg of the pattern. The 1st pulled back marginally below the 0.618, before starting the new Bullish Leg.
We are expecting the same level to be targeted at 1.92600.
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AUDNZD Waiting patiently for that sellThe AUDNZD pair gave us the ultimate sell signal last time (July 11, see chart below) on the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level and easily hit our long-term 1.08000 Target:
The recent 3-week rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is giving us another chance to open another low risk sell on the 0.618 Fibonacci level, similar to all previous Arc tops. Our Target will be the 0.236 Fib at 1.07900, which has been the most usual Support since 2023.
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AUDUSD Any post-Fed spike will be a great sell opportunity.The AUDUSD pair is once again approaching the 14-month Resistance Zone, following a convincing rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This Higher Lows rebound resembles the July 06 2023 bounce that priced a Double Top at the top of the Resistance Zone, before collapsing rapidly to new Lows.
Ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision, we will welcome any short-term spike on high volatility to short (up to the top of the Resistance Zone) and target the Support Zone at 0.63750.
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AUDCAD Excellent buy signal on the 1D MA200The AUDCAD pair gave us an excellent sell signal last time (July 08 2024, see chart below) and easily hit the 0.9000 Target:
This time, we have an established Channel Up with two Higher Highs and three Higher Lows priced in already. We are currently on the new Bullish Leg following the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As long as this holds, we will treat every touch on the 0.786 as a buy opportunity, similar to the Triple Bottom of March - April. That Bullish Leg marginally surpassed the -0.5 Fibonacci extension to print its Higher High, so our Target will be just below it at 0.94000.
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AUD/USD Appreciates Amid US Data, Eyes Key Supply AreaThe AUD/USD pair saw an upward movement as recent US economic data increased expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Despite these gains, the market remains cautious, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rising above forecasts, largely driven by higher service costs. This inflationary uptick has complicated the outlook, as the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut at its September meeting.
From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD is approaching a critical supply area, which could trigger a potential pullback later today. This level has historically acted as resistance, and with fundamentals remaining largely unchanged ahead of Monday, traders should be wary of a possible reversal to retrace yesterday’s gains.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides further insight, showing that retail traders are still heavily long this week, while institutional or "smart money" remains bearish on the pair. This divergence between retail and institutional positioning strengthens the case for a near-term pullback as the pair approaches overbought conditions.
While the fundamentals remain steady, with no major developments expected until next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, market participants are closely watching for signs of a reversal at the current technical levels. A pullback to recover the ground covered by yesterday’s candle is a scenario many traders are anticipating. However, with the Fed’s decision looming and mixed signals from the PPI data, volatility could remain high as the market navigates this critical period.
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AUDJPY Excellent long-term Buy Entry. Double Bottom may happen.The last signal we gave on the AUDJPY pair (July 02, see chart below) couldn't have a better timing as the price was rejected on the very same day just when it hit the Sell Zone and in 3 weeks hit the 101.000 Target:
The price even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but found Support exactly on the bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up (on today's chart we made the necessary adjustments to fit the Higher Highs) and more importantly, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Last week's rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), serves as a reminder that a Double Bottom might be required before the Channel Up confirms the start of the new Bullish Leg. At least this is what happened on the March 20 2023 and November 29 2021 Lows (we had a 1W MA50 rejection for 5 straight months during February 2023).
As a result, another touch of the 1W RSI on its 3-year Buy Zone will confirm the new long-term uptrend and we will turn bullish, targeting 114.000 (+26.70% rise, similar to the last two Bullish Legs).
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Head and Shoulders Pattern on AUD/USD On the AUD/USD chart, we are seeing a clear Head and Shoulders pattern , which is a strong indication of a potential bearish reversal. This pattern consists of three peaks, with the middle peak (the "Head") being the highest, and the two smaller peaks (the "Shoulders") on either side.
Key Points:
Left Shoulder: Formed , marking the first peak before the minor decline.
Head: The highest peak , indicating the strongest upward move before the market turned lower.
Right Shoulder: The second smaller peak has formed, suggesting the bearish momentum is resuming.
Neckline: The neckline, which connects the two troughs. A break below this line would confirm the bearish reversal pattern.
EURAUD: Confirmed CHoCH & Bullish Outlook 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
I see a confirmed Change of Character on EURAUD on a daily.
Trading in a global bullish trend, the market successfully violated
a minor bearish trend, breaking a significant horizontal resistance.
The market will most likely go higher.
Next resistance - 1.669
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EURAUD BUYEuro vs Australia dollar 💵 has made a falling wedge over daily TF and when it broke above that falling wedge it has made a 1H falling wedge to retest the daily broke falling wedge it has also broke 1H wedge an trying to move into bullish direction toward its daily Resistance so we will be waiting for a confirmation and enter into trade
AUDCAD: Time to Drop Lower 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD was consolidating within a horizontal range for 2 weeks.
The release of high impact fundamental news earlier this week
made the pair bearish.
The price managed to break and close below a support of the range on a daily.
We can expect a bearish movement now.
Next support - 90.5
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AUDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m: Can observe BoS and Swing Low
The price is now consolidating.
Plan A: As soon as the market takes buy-side liquidity, take a short position, followed by a 15m bearish confirmation.
Plan B: As soon as the market takes sell-side liquidity, take a long position, followed by a 15m bullish confirmation.
Plan C: Take a flip entry accordingly.
Do not deviate from the process; take entries in the 15m kill zones.
AUDUSD Excellent sell opportunity approaching.The AUDUSD pair is approaching the 1-year Resistance Zone that has been in effect since June 2023 and has to this date priced 4 rejections. As long as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, the market will continue to apply extreme selling pressure every time the price hits that Zone.
Wait for the most optimal sell entry on this level and target the top of the Support Zone at 0.63650. Notice also how perfectly the 1W RSI has been trading within a Rectangle and is also approaching its top, i.e. the most optimal long-term sell entry.
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AUDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday 15m: Marked the latest supply / strong resistance zones
@15m Killzones:
Plan A (51% probability): The market is likely to sweep the entire buy-side liquidity and then move towards a bearish trend.
Plan B (49% probability): If there's a potential supply-to-demand flip, the market is likely to move bullish.
Based on 15m clear confirmations after the liquidity sweep or flip, take a long or short position accordingly, depending on the bullish or bearish confirmations.
React only during killzones; do not take entries outside of these times.
AUDJPY Shooort!Following the pullback last week after a massive bearish momentum, I anticipate that the momentum will continue, as the price rebounded to the 0.236 fib level at . My target will be to retest the 0.382 fib level at 90.6, so as to also cover the liquidity grab / gap that was left earlier on.
Entry will be at 96.00, TP at 90.5 and SL at 97.5.
AUD USD TRADE SET UP AUD/USD pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, indicating a potential trend reversal.
A short entry will be executed upon a retest of the neckline on the lower timeframe.
The first target is set at a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, and the second target is at the 4-hour demand level.
Who else is watching AUD/USD?
AUDCHF Channel Up intact. This pull-back is a buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair is on the 3rd straight day of a strong short-term pull-back and just touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 3 weeks. The long-term bullish trend remains intact though as the dominant structure is a 7-month Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we will remain bullish, targeting 0.62250 (+6.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the previous two).
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