Get started

Australiandollar

Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar hit a one-year high on Tuesday on expectations the US Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of its massive bond-buying program next month, and as concerns over soaring energy prices also sent investors to the safe-haven currency. Antipodeans – AUD and NZD were largely steady on Tuesday as sellers were held at bay by higher commodity prices as well as on spiking bond yields driven by bets that major central banks will tighten policy to curb rising inflation.
by thunderpips
1
Wait for retracement and buy signal with AUDUSDH4 time frame. Structure: The downtrend has been broken. Key level at 0.73200 was broken. Wait for the price retracement to confirm the uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe and then look for a buying opportunity with AUDUSD. The confluence between the 50-61 Fibonacci level and the 0.72400 and 0.72200 support levels is a potential price correction zone. The profit target is 0.74800 zone. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Long
by tradafx
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. The country’s economic and health developments There are 3 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – a Q3 GDP contraction is priced in so the question now is whether restrictions can be lifted in time to see a Q4 rebound. China – as Australia’s biggest export destination the current economic slowdown in China is important for the AUD, and markets are watching to see whether the government and PBoC steps up with expected stimulus for the economy, as well as the country’s real estate woes with the likes of Evergrande. Politics is also on the radar as the recent defence pact between the US, UK and Australia could see retaliation from China against Australian goods. Iron Ore is Australia’s biggest export (24%), and the over 50% drop from YTD highs is a negatively driver on Australia’s terms of trade. However, the recent >40% climb in Coal prices (18% of exports) from the end of July should be able to offset the drag from Iron Ore. Even though China’s drive for a greener future weighed on Iron Ore, its currency energy crunch has been a key driver of higher Coal prices. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA At their previous meeting the RBA were hawkish in deed but not in word, by going ahead with their planned A$1 billion Sep tapering plans, but their statement and tone were overall dovish. They explained that even though they expect the economy to bounce back from covid, they are far less certain about the timing and pace of the bounce. They also moved their next assessment of the QE program to at least February, which means they essential both increased and extended their total QE package. It was a mixed bag for markets and meant the med-term bias remained neutral. Gov Lowe also surprised two weeks ago by strongly pushing back against market pricing for a late 2022 or early 2023 hike, explaining he doesn’t understand such pricing as rates is only seen rising in 2024. This, alongside developments in China arguably places the AUD on the verge of turning weak bearish from the current neutral outlook, but with the country’s vaccine drive picking up steam we could be looking at a possible recovery play for the AUD once the economy opens, so patient on the bias for now. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the AUD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -799 with a net non-commercial position of -86383. Keep in mind this data is updated until Tuesday 28 Sep, which means the push higher in the AUD from Wednesday won’t be reflected and means next week’s data is expected to see some unwind in net-shorts. However, at the current positioning levels for both large speculators and leveraged funds, the odds of seeing short squeezes higher is still on the card and risk to reward for chasing the AUD lower from here is not very attractive. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1361 with a net non-commercial position of +26461. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but with both large speculators and leveraged funds sitting in net-long territory, it does mean that the Dollar could be more sensitive from mean reversion while still elevated after the recent push higher into new YTD highs. 5. Economic Data This week we’ll finally have the September NFP print, but all the previous excitement about this event has been mitigated with the Fed’s previous meeting. The Fed’s comments that they don’t need to see a huge or stellar jobs print but that a decent print will do, has largely taken the sting out of the Sep NFP print. The current concerns about inflation means that the Average Hourly Earnings release could be of more interest for market participants to see whether the current labour supply shortage sparks further acceleration in wages.
by thunderpips
1
Head and Shoulder Formation @ EURAUDOANDA:EURAUD I have since shared this idea before it's right shoulder formation completed (see related ideas). Right Shoulder pips is all harvested. Now it is time to harvest breakout profits. Sell with a reasonable SL since EURAUD is a super volatile pair. Good Luck! PPPDirhams. Disclaimer: This is just my idea. Am not liable for the end results if adapted by anyone. Trade cautiously as there are chances that you will lose your investment..
Long
by Kingsley_lotanna
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. The country’s economic and health developments There are 3 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – a Q3 GDP contraction is priced in so the question now is whether restrictions can be lifted in time to see a Q4 rebound. China – as Australia’s biggest export destination the current economic slowdown in China is important for the AUD, and markets are watching to see whether the government and PBoC steps up with expected stimulus for the economy, as well as the country’s real estate woes with the likes of Evergrande. Politics is also on the radar as the recent defence pact between the US, UK and Australia could see retaliation from China against Australian goods. Iron Ore is Australia’s biggest export (24%), and the over 50% drop from YTD highs will negatively impact Australia’s terms of trade and trade balance. Some of this was offset by the 24% rise in Coal prices (18% of exports) from August, but not enough to offset the drag. China’s driver for a greener future is a key driver to watch for the likes of Iron ore and Coal as reduced demand from China should be a drag on prices. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA At their previous meeting the RBA were hawkish in deed but not in word, by going ahead with their planned A$1 billion Sep tapering plans, but their statement and tone were overall dovish. They explained that even though they expect the economy to bounce back from covid, they are far less certain about the timing and pace of the bounce. They also moved their next assessment of the QE program to at least February, which means they essential both increased and extended their total QE package. It was a mixed bag for markets and meant the med-term bias remained neutral. Gov Lowe also surprised last week by strongly pushing back against market pricing for a late 2022 or early 2023 hike, explaining he doesn’t understand such pricing as rates is only seen rising in 2024. This, alongside developments in China and commodities arguably places the AUD on the verge of turning weak bearish from the current neutral outlook. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the AUD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2201 with a net non-commercial position of -85584. Not as big as the previous but enough to push net-short positioning further into extreme territory. It’s not just the size of the short, but also the speed that’s in focus with recent changes exceeded 2-standard deviations (3-YR, 1-YR and 6-Month). Thus, even though negatives for the AUD are building, positioning is stretched to the point where chasing the AUD lower isn’t an attractive risk-to-reward proposition, as the likelihood of short squeezes are steadily rising. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. The global risk outlook. Global economic data continues to surprise lower and should continue to struggle to surprise to the upside after the pandemic rebound. As the USD usually moves inversely to global growth that should be supportive for the USD as long as the global growth data moves lower. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than was expected is a good way to sum up last week’s meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for market expectations of a November tapering announcement by saying that if progress on the economic goals continues as expected they would deem their criteria for substantial further progress being met, also saying the statement language was meant to flag that the bar for tapering could be met at the next meeting (Nov). Apart from that, inflation was seen treading above the Fed’s 2% Core PCE target until 2024, which was arguably also more hawkish. On the labour market side, Fed Chair Powell explained that he thought the substantial further progress threshold for the labour market was ‘all but met’, and also explained that it won’t necessarily take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering and that just a ‘decent’ print will do. Even though the 2022 just narrowly projected a hike for 2022 and still close to the June median, the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). All in all, this was more hawkish than expected, but didn’t really see any meaningful follow through in the USD. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, but at face value markets were surprisingly quick to discount it. The muted reaction could have been down to positioning with the DXY already close to YTD highs, or it might have been the fact that the Fed isn’t the only game in town right now when it comes to policy normalization (RBNZ, BoE, BoC ). Either way, the muted reaction means we are staying patient with our med-term outlook for the USD right now. 3. Real Yields Despite recent divergence between the USD and US real yields, we still think further downside in real yields will be a struggle so close to new cycle lows and that the probability is skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and tapering and should be supportive for the USD. 4. Economic Data Very light economic data in the week ahead with the ISM Mfg PMI being the only highlight. Even though this print is always important, the fact that the Fed has already hinted at a faster taper even without seeing Sep data means there is more downside risks to incoming data compared to upside risks, as upside risks will confirm the Fed’s decision while enough downside surprises might cause some doubts. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +827 with a net non-commercial position of +25100. For now, with the fundamental outlook still neutral, and with positioning at current levels the incoming data will remain the key driver for the USD’s short-term volatility . With a fairly light economic schedule in the week ahead (apart from ISM Mfg PMI on Friday) we might have a more risk driven Dollar drive this week.
by thunderpips
2
EUR/AUD HEADS HIGHER AS PRICE APPROACH AUGUST 12 RESISTANCE September 22/2021 For the sake of negative news that surrounds the Australian iron production affairs, and the ongoing lock down assigned by the Australian government which causes few restriction in free movement that also leads to the slowing economy functionality of the Australian dollar. Yet on the other hand the euro has been outperforming the aud in the past few weeks. Hence the general market structure for the EUR/AUD signify a bullish trend. Unlike the market sentiment for other cross currency pairs it's most likely the EURAUD will encounter some few corrections before heading higher. From an indicator analysis standpoint it should be noted that the following indicators represent significant bullish bias setups on the daily time chart; The RSI indicator was seen at 55.5 Stochastic (9,6) 71.8 illustrate a strong buy signal MACD (12,6) indicate strong buying signal ATR value is accurately indicating less volatile market condition To prevent yourself from suspicious brokers I choose WikiFx to research brokers:
Short
by Theexcelentrepreneur
2