GBPAUD: Short term bullish trade.GBPAUD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.487, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 28.797) as the LL leg of the Channel Down was negated by the Double Bottom that was formed today. The 1D RSI turned upwards on a HL trendline and this is a short term bullish call, targeting the top of the pattern (TP = 1.94000).
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Australiandollar
AUDNZD: Channel Down top rejection.AUDNZD is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.715, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 36.182) as it started pulling back after the price got rejected at the top of the June-initiated Channel Down. All same RSI based pullbacks hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level and declined by at least -2.62%. Under those conditions, we are short on AUDNZD, targeting the closest of the two levels, the 0.618 Fib (TP = 1.07200).
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Australia's Inflation Data Revealed Soon Australia's Inflation Data Revealed Soon
Next week, Australia will unveil its latest inflation figures.
Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance and seize trading opportunities.
Projections suggest a notable dip in Australia's headline inflation to 3.4%, down from the previous 4.1%, a steep decline that could fail to materialize.
other advanced economies are poised to outperform Australia in price reduction efforts, with a median inflation rate expected to reach 2% by 2025. “Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year”, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist.
Traders currently anticipate a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the RBA in December. However, if the actual inflation figure falls short of the forecasted 3.4%, this expectation may diminish, potentially bolstering the AUD.
Yesterday's marginal uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8% last month suggests that February's unexpected drop to 3.7% was not an anomaly. This development may only make it more difficult for the Reserve Bank to consider initiating rate cuts in the near future.
AUDCAD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.713, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 36.219) as it is testing the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 periods at the bottom of February's Channel Up. This is a technical buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk, since as long as the Channel Up holds, we can target a Higher High at +2.30% (TP = 0.90500) like the one before. If the Channel Up breaks the loss will be minimal and we'll be able to short and target the S1 level (TP = 0.87300).
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AUDJPY: Today's decline is a buy opportunity.AUDJPY is borderline bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.140, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 22.883) as today it has erased the gains of almost the past 3 days. As it approaches the 1D MA50, it is turning into a buy opportunity inside a double Channel Up pattern. At 99.000 we are turning bullish again and will aim for a +2.65% increase (TP = 101.700) for a HH.
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AUDCHF 1D Golden Cross signaling a decline. Best sell in market.The AUDCHF pair has just formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame but even though it is theoretically a bullish structure, it hasn't historically behaved as such for this pair. We view its effect on the 1W time-frame in order to go as back in time as possible and get conclusions.
In the past 10 years (since the May 2014 1D Golden Cross, which was bullish) there have been 5 such formations, all of which made the pair peak either before or on the Cross and delivered a Lower Low, in some instances even with brutal sell-offs.
In the last 2 occurrences, the 1D Golden Cross started Channel Down declines that both hit at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again before any trend change. As a result, we comfortably turn bearish now on AUDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 by August.
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EURAUD Strong sell opportunity within the Channel Down.Last time we made a call on the EURAUD pair (January 02, see chart below), we caught the best buy entry right at the bottom of the former Channel Down that easily hit our 1.6600 Target:
This time we are presented with a strong sell opportunity as the price just broke yesterday below the March 07 Support, making a new short-term Lower Low. This confirms the longer term bearish extension towards the Channel Down bottom for a new Lower Low. We are going for a standard (for this Channel Down Bearish Legs) -4.25% decline from the top, targeting 1.60350.
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GBPAUD Sell signal on 1D MA200 Bearish Break-outThe GBPAUD pair gave us an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (December 29 2023, see chart below), easily hitting our 1.9000 Target:
This time we have a Sell Signal that the pair just flashed as it just broke today below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 15. Last time that happened was on December 13 2023, when GBPAUD also broke below a Triangle pattern and reached as low as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level. The RSI patterns of the two sequences are also similar, being within Channel Down patterns.
As a result, we turn bearish on this pair today, targeting 1.9000.
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AUDNZD Reversal expected. Cyclical bearish signal emerging.Has been a while since we looked into the AUDNZD pair, following our Sell Signal on November 16 2023 (see chart below):
The price has now reached the 1.093250 Symmetrical Resistance, which has basically only broken once in the last 12 months. Ahead of a potential 1D MACD Bearish Cross, we see a high resemblance of the current High with the June 20 2023 peak.
As a result, we are turning bearish on this pair, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (as the July 14 2023 Low) at 1.07100.
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AUDUSD: Wait to buy this dip.AUDUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.176, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 34.265) as it entered a Channel Down similar to those of August - October 2023 and April - May 2023. That is why we are expecting a bullish reveral the closer we get to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As long as the 1D RSI doesn't break into the oversold zone (<30.000), we will buy that dip and target the LH trendline (TP = 0.6700).
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AUDCAD Sell opportunity with Death Cross emergingThe AUDCAD pair is on a Lower Highs rejected and ahead of a Death Cross formation on the 1D time-frame. Since 2022, we have seen two Falling Wedge patterns, which accelerated selling after the completion of a 1D Death Cross. The first target on both occasions was the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we are bearish on this pair, targeting 0.86500 (Fib 1.236 ext).
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AUDJPY Hit the top of the Channel Up.The AUDJPY pair has recently hit our long-term bullish Target of 99.300, which we set on our last trading idea (December 18 2023, see chart below):
That was at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) and the 1.136 Fibonacci extension of the 9-month Channel Up. We are technically expecting a pull-back now towards the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up and our Target is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 95.600.
If however the price breaks above the Higher High and the Channel Up, we will have a formation bullish break-out and as a result we will take the small loss on the short and go long instead, targeting the 3.0 Fibonacci extension at 102.700. In that case we will be expecting a rally similar to June 2023, which led to the creation of the current Channel Up.
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AUDUSD 1D Death Cross formed. Any bounce is a sell opportunity.The AUDUSD pair is forming today a 1D Death Cross, as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time in 11 months (since April 14 2023). Obviously it is a major technical sell signal and in fact the price action since the start of the year (Channel Down), is very similar to the one of early 2023.
The 1D RSI fractals are virtually identical and in relative terms we are at the point where the (blue) Bear Flat is about to break downwards. Any rebound at this stage is a sell opportunity and our Target is just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension at 0.63750.
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AU projected target of 0.6600With China economic news, US election news, and NFP this upcoming Friday, we have a lot of fundamental events moving the markets. We just recently broke a LH on AU. I'm looking for a projected target of 0.6600
We will plan accordingly with whatever the market shows us and stick to our trading plans
The AUDUSD is falling due to the weak performance of CHINA📌✔️Examining the trend in the four-hour time frame, the Australian dollar/US dollar is fluctuating in a descending channel, and considering the bearish camo cloud and the decline in the moving averages of the ALLIGATOR indicator, there is a possibility of price reduction.
📌✔️Overall, the scenario is strengthened as AUD/USD registers a one-hour candlestick close below the resistance at 0.6481, which could drop to support at the bottom of the descending channel at 0.6405.✔️🎯
AUD/CAD: Identifying Significant ZonesTraders,
Let's delve into the key zones for AUD/CAD:
We're witnessing a formidable bullish channel, but beware, it could break, triggering stop losses, only to rise again.
Our 1-hour zone is currently active. Consider partially closing positions when it aligns with the 15-minute and 4-hour zones.
Additionally, we'll increase our volume around the lower 1-hour zone.
Stay vigilant and adapt to market movements accordingly.
Best regards,