Australiandollar
GBPAUD Hit our previous target, now sets course for 1.87250.The GBPAUD pair is trading almost exactly as we expected it to on our most recent analysis (June 04, see chart below), as after an initial rise, it got rejected on the Lower Highs Zone and declined to hit the 1.89100 Support (which was our Target) again:
It is at the moment on a rebound, which according to the October - November 2023 fractal that we believe is replicating, should be the last before a final test on the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line.
As a result, we will sell again after a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, and target 1.87250 (Higher Lows trend-line).
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AUDNZD Two levels to sell for the long-term.The AUDNZD pair gave us a strong sell-and-buy double signal last time (June 03, see chart below):
However it did manage to invalidate the Symmetrical Resistance Zone sell bias and even broke yesterday above Resistance 2 (1.108600), which has been holding since February 20 2023.
In order to make sense of this move, it is best to view it on the wider 1W time-frame. As long as the 1W candle is closing below Resistance 2, then the action remains a sell, targeting 1.08000 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
If the 1W candle closes above Resistance 2, we will take the loss immediately and sell at the top of the Channel Up with the same Target (1.08000).
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AUDCAD Sell signal emerging on a 3.5-year Resistance!The AUDCAD pair just hit on the week's opening the Lower Highs trend-line that was first initiated on February 22 2021. As the 1W RSI is just below its own 3.5-year Resistance Zone, the first strong long-term sell opportunity flashes.
Check below how the last AUDCAD analysis (May 29, see chart below) provided an excellent buy opportunity:
The more short-term pattern though since the September 25 2023 Double Bottom is a Channel Up and it is close to pricing its new Higher High. This is just above the 3.5 year Lower Highs trend-line, so we give the sell signal this much tolerance level for some deviation.
Our Target on the medium-term is 0.9000 (Support Zone 1, similar symmetry to the previous Higher Low on Support Zone 2).
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AUD breaking out of downtrendAUD/USD Breaks Key Resistance
Overview:
The FX:AUDUSD pair has shown significant signs of a trend reversal after being in a downtrend since 2021. The pair reached a low just below $0.62 and has since made a strong recovery.
Key Technical Points:
1. Trend Reversal:
- The pair has broken out of the descending trendline that has been intact since 2021.
- This breakout is a crucial signal indicating a potential shift from the prolonged bearish trend to a bullish phase.
2. Moving Averages:
- The price has successfully crossed above the weekly 50-period Moving Average (50MA), which often acts as a significant resistance level.
- The next key target is the weekly 200-period Moving Average (200MA). The convergence of the 200MA with the Fibonacci retracement levels adds to its importance as a resistance zone.
3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
- The price is currently approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. A successful breach of this level could propel the pair towards the 0.618 retracement level.
- The 0.618 Fibonacci level aligns closely with the 200MA, making it a critical resistance zone. This confluence strengthens the resistance at this level, which lies around the $0.72 area.
4. Key Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Beyond this, the $0.72 zone, which coincides with the 0.618 retracement and the 200MA, is the next major resistance.
- Support: On the downside, the broken trendline and the weekly 50MA now act as crucial support levels. Additionally, the $0.62 level, which marked the recent low, remains a significant support zone.
Outlook:
The breakout above the downtrend line and the 50MA, coupled with increasing volume, suggests a bullish outlook for the AUD/USD pair. If the pair manages to break above the 0.382 retracement level, it could head towards the $0.72 area, which is reinforced by the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 200MA. Traders should watch for consolidation around these key levels and the reaction at the $0.72 zone to gauge the sustainability of this bullish trend.
Conclusion:
The AUD/USD pair's technical landscape has shifted favorably for bulls after a prolonged downtrend. The current breakout and the crossing of key moving averages signal potential for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious around the $0.72 resistance zone, as it represents a critical juncture that could determine the next phase of the trend.
AUDJPY Approaching the long-term Sell ZoneThe AUDJPY pair gave us an excellent short-term sell signal last time (May 23, see chart below) but after that broke above the medium-term Channel Up aggressively:
We now need to zoom out to the longer term 1W time-frame, where we clearly see the dominant pattern of the pair, which has been a Channel Up since the March 16 2020 (COVID) market bottom. Each Higher High was formed when the 1W RSI started forming a Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs. The 1st Bullish Leg was priced after a +32.90% rise, while the 2nd one at +26.70%.
As a result, with the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the 2nd time in 6 weeks, we believe that the pair is approaching its long-term Sell Zone on the Higher Highs region. Its Higher Lows have been priced near or on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), so we will take this sell opportunity to target 101.000 (expected contact and breach of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)).
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AUDUSD Medium-term sell signalThe AUDUSD pair has been trading sideways since the May 16 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern has been a Triangle going back to the October 13 2022 market bottom and the current consolidation is taking place right at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern.
As you can see, this is quite similar to the Q2-Q3 2023 price action, which after the Triangle top rejection, it declined below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals look similar. As a result, we turn bearish on this pair, targeting 0.63450 (Fib 1.236 ext).
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AUD/USD: Potential swing trade long setupAUD posted a strong rally of 5% from the April low, before 67c capped as resistance. A choppy rage has since formed between 66c-67c, although it could also be a bull flag in the making. Whilst we wait for it to decide which of the two it is, we're looking at a cheeky swing trade long idea heading into the weekend.
The 1-hour chart shows a strong rally from US CPI, and recent prices action has retraced against that move. Prices are stabilising around the 20-day EMA, so perhaps it is close to a swing low. The bias is bullish whilst prices hold above the monthly pivot point (0.6610), but tighter risk management could be used if momentum turns higher (such as the recent swing lows).
The initial target is near the upper 1-day implied volatility band of 0.6657.
EURAUD: Confirmed Bullish Reversal?! 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the price bounced and violated
the neckline of the pattern.
Growth may continue next week.
Next resistance - 1.6475
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AUDCHF Bottom of Channel Up. Buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair gave us a solid sell signal last time (April 05, see chart below) but then broke above and established a Channel Up:
The price is now at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of that Channel Up, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), calling for a short-term buy amidst the start of the next Bullish Leg. On top of that, the RSI is approaching its 1-year Support Zone, which every time it was touched, the price rallied by at least +4.50%.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is intact and attempt a first buy now, targeting 0.61750 (+4.50%).
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EURAUD Still bearish within the Channel Down.This is basically an update to our last EURAUD analysis (April 05, see chart below) two months ago:
As you can see the price was rejected at the top of the 1-year Channel Down but since May 07 has turned sideways. In fact, looking at the 1D RSI, we see a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence since April 09, while the price was on Lower Lows.
This is similar to the Higher Lows that started on December 01 2023 and resulted in a Bullish Leg of +3.39%. As a result, we are taking profit on our sell position and open a buy, targeting 1.6550 (top of the so far dominant Channel Down).
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AUDUSD AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR NEXT LONGHi again,
AUDUSD pair has solid long positions backing in recent data and institutional futures positions.
After data release now the long from here 0.663 AUDUSD might work, but I prefer to wait for better position. I will build longs and stop loss accordingly to the long position I shared on chart.
GBPAUD Sell every riseThe GBPAUD pair eventually hit our 1.9000 Target after our latest sell signal on April 04 (see chart below):
The price is now consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) cluster, imitating the late October 2023 consolidation. As long as it stays below the Lower Highs Zone, is will initiate in our opinion the periodic Bearish Leg towards the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line (green Cup).
Our medium-term strategy involves targeting the 1.89100 Support for lower risk.
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AUDNZD Know when to buy and sell. Strong pattern ahead.The AUDNZD pair is currently consolidating exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following the May 07 rejection near Resistance 1, which resulted in a strong sell-off. We expect this sell-off to extend at least as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) and then rebound towards the Symmetrical Resistance Zone, approximately on the upward 0.618 Fib (black).
Our long-term Target is eventually 1.06600 (near Support 1). Our projection is based on the similar price action of June- July 2023.
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AUDCAD About to test the 1W MA200 after more than 1 year.The AUDCAD pair has been on a structured rise since the September 25 2023 Bottom, which technical is a Double Bottom formation for the long-term. The price is about to test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 as well as the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the February 22 2021 High.
Every time the pair approached the 1W MA200 to this distance, it broke above it, even just for the medium-term. We expect a similar development, which would be conveniently a Lower Highs test. Our Target is 0.92250.
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AUDJPY Channel Up topped. Sell signal.The AUDJPY pair reached the top of its long-term Channel Up, while at the same time the 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish Cross today. This is a strong sell signal combination and the minimum decline that the pair has within this Channel Up on a pull-back, has been -1.84%. As a result our short-term Target is 102.650.
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AUDUSD - 4H Sell opportunityKeep your eye on this trendline. AUDUSD has experienced a three-leg rise, forming an ascending trendline.
A break of this trendline could be a good sign for sellers to achieve significant gains, potentially pushing the price down to the last pivot support zone.
Watch for confirmation of this break to identify potential entry points for short positions.