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Australiandollar

AUD/USD: Potential swing trade long setupAUD posted a strong rally of 5% from the April low, before 67c capped as resistance. A choppy rage has since formed between 66c-67c, although it could also be a bull flag in the making. Whilst we wait for it to decide which of the two it is, we're looking at a cheeky swing trade long idea heading into the weekend. The 1-hour chart shows a strong rally from US CPI, and recent prices action has retraced against that move. Prices are stabilising around the 20-day EMA, so perhaps it is close to a swing low. The bias is bullish whilst prices hold above the monthly pivot point (0.6610), but tighter risk management could be used if momentum turns higher (such as the recent swing lows). The initial target is near the upper 1-day implied volatility band of 0.6657.
Long
by CityIndex
AUDCHF Bottom of Channel Up. Buy opportunity.The AUDCHF pair gave us a solid sell signal last time (April 05, see chart below) but then broke above and established a Channel Up: The price is now at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of that Channel Up, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), calling for a short-term buy amidst the start of the next Bullish Leg. On top of that, the RSI is approaching its 1-year Support Zone, which every time it was touched, the price rallied by at least +4.50%. As a result, we remain bullish as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is intact and attempt a first buy now, targeting 0.61750 (+4.50%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURAUD Still bearish within the Channel Down.This is basically an update to our last EURAUD analysis (April 05, see chart below) two months ago: As you can see the price was rejected at the top of the 1-year Channel Down but since May 07 has turned sideways. In fact, looking at the 1D RSI, we see a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence since April 09, while the price was on Lower Lows. This is similar to the Higher Lows that started on December 01 2023 and resulted in a Bullish Leg of +3.39%. As a result, we are taking profit on our sell position and open a buy, targeting 1.6550 (top of the so far dominant Channel Down). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
GBPAUD Sell every riseThe GBPAUD pair eventually hit our 1.9000 Target after our latest sell signal on April 04 (see chart below): The price is now consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) cluster, imitating the late October 2023 consolidation. As long as it stays below the Lower Highs Zone, is will initiate in our opinion the periodic Bearish Leg towards the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line (green Cup). Our medium-term strategy involves targeting the 1.89100 Support for lower risk. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AUDNZD Know when to buy and sell. Strong pattern ahead.The AUDNZD pair is currently consolidating exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following the May 07 rejection near Resistance 1, which resulted in a strong sell-off. We expect this sell-off to extend at least as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) and then rebound towards the Symmetrical Resistance Zone, approximately on the upward 0.618 Fib (black). Our long-term Target is eventually 1.06600 (near Support 1). Our projection is based on the similar price action of June- July 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
AUDCAD About to test the 1W MA200 after more than 1 year.The AUDCAD pair has been on a structured rise since the September 25 2023 Bottom, which technical is a Double Bottom formation for the long-term. The price is about to test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 as well as the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the February 22 2021 High. Every time the pair approached the 1W MA200 to this distance, it broke above it, even just for the medium-term. We expect a similar development, which would be conveniently a Lower Highs test. Our Target is 0.92250. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
AUDJPY Channel Up topped. Sell signal.The AUDJPY pair reached the top of its long-term Channel Up, while at the same time the 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish Cross today. This is a strong sell signal combination and the minimum decline that the pair has within this Channel Up on a pull-back, has been -1.84%. As a result our short-term Target is 102.650. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AUDCAD:🔴Bearish scenario...!🔴 Hello Traders As you can see the price purged the daily buy-side liquidity and then the market structure was shifted on the hourly chart. Now the price is inside a range, creating the double purge scenario for us. If the price sweeps the buy side liquidity first, it is a chance to enter the sell position with LTF confirmation. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️10/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Short
by VahidTradingCR
3
AUDUSD: Technical Impact of Core Inflation DataThe release of core inflation rate data in the United States can impact the AUD/USD exchange rate, especially on a weekly timeframe, due to its influence on market sentiment and monetary policy expectations. Firstly, let's break down the core inflation rate. Core inflation measures the change in the price of goods and services, excluding volatile items like food and energy. It's a crucial indicator for central banks, like the Federal Reserve in the U.S., as it provides insight into the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy. When the core inflation rate in the U.S. rises, it typically signals increasing demand for goods and services, which can lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy. Central banks may respond to rising inflation by raising interest rates to cool down the economy and prevent overheating. Higher interest rates make the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors, leading to an increase in its value relative to other currencies like the Australian dollar (AUD). Conversely, if the core inflation rate in the U.S. falls below expectations or remains subdued, it may indicate weak consumer demand or excess capacity in the economy. In such cases, the Federal Reserve might consider maintaining or even lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity. Lower interest rates can decrease the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar to investors, causing it to weaken against other currencies like the AUD. Now, let's apply this to the AUD/USD exchange rate on a weekly timeframe. When the U.S. core inflation rate exceeds expectations, it could lead to a strengthening of the USD against the AUD. Traders and investors may anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, leading them to buy USD in anticipation of higher interest rates. This increased demand for USD relative to AUD can cause the AUD/USD exchange rate to depreciate over the weekly observation period. On the other hand, if the U.S. core inflation rate disappoints or falls short of expectations, it could weaken the USD against the AUD on a weekly basis. Traders and investors may interpret this as a sign that the Federal Reserve might maintain or even cut interest rates to support economic growth. Consequently, there could be increased demand for AUD relative to USD, leading to an appreciation of the AUD/USD exchange rate over the weekly timeframe. In addition to the fundamental factors discussed, the impact of the release of U.S. core inflation rate data on the AUD/USD exchange rate can align with technical analysis considerations. Technical analysis involves studying historical price movements and patterns to forecast future price movements. When considering technical factors, if the current price of the AUD/USD pair is approaching a significant resistance level on the weekly timeframe, traders may anticipate a potential reversal or pullback. This resistance level could be identified through various technical tools such as trendlines, chart patterns, or Fibonacci retracement levels. Given this technical setup, there are two possible scenarios to consider: Immediate Pullback: If the AUD/USD exchange rate is nearing a resistance level at the time of the release of U.S. core inflation data, traders may expect a direct pullback in price during the same week. This pullback could occur as traders take profits or adjust their positions in response to the resistance level, coupled with the fundamental influence of the inflation data. Bullish Momentum Followed by Pullback: Alternatively, if the AUD/USD exchange rate has bullish momentum and continues to rise after the release of U.S. core inflation data, it may temporarily break above the current resistance level. Traders might anticipate the pair reaching the next resistance level before experiencing a pullback. This scenario could occur if market participants interpret the inflation data as less hawkish than expected or if other factors, such as risk sentiment or economic indicators, support bullish AUD/USD movement.
Short
by DNP-FX
2
AUDNZD:🔴Sell opportunity🔴The price hit the HTF supply zone and had a bearish reaction, creating the buy-side liquidity alongside the bearish FVG in the premium, so we can expect the price to hit the bearish FVG and collect all the buy-side liquidity and then come down for sell-side liquidity. In this scenario, I like to see speed when the price sweeps the liquidity above the old high. As always, we need LTF confirmation to enter a sell position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️13/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Short
by VahidTradingCR
4
AUDUSD Medium-term Sell OpportunityThe AUDUSD pair followed our previous signal with great precision (March 19, see chart below), hitting the 0.63750 Target: Following that, the price rebounded and has so far been rejected yet again on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the strongest medium-term Resistance and a symmetrical sell level where the similar sequence of June - July 2023 Double Topped and got rejected even below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we take a similar bearish stance and take this opportunity to sell again and target 0.63450 (1.235 Fib ext). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURAUD:🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption) As you can see the price reached the HTF bearish Inversion, which is a strong resistance and had a bearish reaction and shifted the market structure, so we looking for a sell opportunity. In that case, the price created the liquidity pool below the bearish order block which is a high probability selling scenario. So if the price reaches the bearish order block we can enter the sell position with LTF confirmation. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️10/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same? Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same? The US Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range as anticipated. Notably, Fed Chair Powell, in the press conference, expressed that while the central bank remains vigilant about inflation risks, a hike is "unlikely" for the next move. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) echo a similar stance when it announces its interest rate decision next week? Although there were hopeful indications that inflation in Australia was trending in the right direction, these were dashed recently by a stronger-than-expected reading for the March quarter. With hopes for a rate cut dashed, speculation now centers around the possibility of another increase before 2024 concludes. Bloomberg reports a shift in expectations from rate cuts to a potential rise by year-end. Market sentiment has transitioned from a 70% likelihood of an interest rate cut in August to a 50% probability of a 0.25% rate hike, which is a huge shift in sentiment. If indeed an interest rate hike materializes, it would place Australia in stark contrast to other central banks. Presently, the RBA's cash rate stands at 4.35%. None of the major four banks anticipate the RBA's next move to be an increase, with all still projecting a rate cut by Christmas. However, these forecasts remain subject to change in the lead-up to the RBA's decision.
by BlackBull_Markets