Retail gamblers found the holy grail... To be a rogue trader!I just had a little look into "robots". I've known from reading some of the BIS reports that Forex quants mostly vanished after 2008.
But I wanted to go on these FX retail sites that are heavy in the "automated" very short term "trading", which is not actually day trading as they run these programs 24/24 there is no "end of the day so let's stay out of the market for 2/3 of the time to compound profits faster" 😄
Here is how I expect an exchange with an "automated" day gambler would go:
My day gambling strategy works muahahaha it does well on backtest for 1 years.
Me: "That's simply because the pair you tested it on has been trending for 1 year you numbskull"
Well you just have to apply it in the right conditions!
Me: "With your crystal ball? If you know what they are, why not just manually take 1 trade?"
Aha! Because of the power of compounding! Rather than risk 1% to make 5% I will make 2% 25 times.
Me: "Your brain on holiday? Forgot you would also compound spread costs and losses?"
Well forget it, if you rly zoom in and can't see anything it looks magical! Doesn't depend on the 1 year trend!
Me: "Then it depends on the 1 month trend?"
No! no matter what you say I have an idiotic answer!
Usually starts with "You just have to"!
I'll throw idiotic answers at you until you get bored and give up on me because I am hopeless!
Me: "Well done I give up" "Thanks for the laugh though" 😂
Take a good friend of mine, UDNCNY:
I can tell you for a fact that an "automated strategy" of the kind I am going to describe would work. Don't even need to backtest it.
The strategy is as follow: Take about any indicator (RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc). When the price goes down (< 30 RSI or lower band) then goes back up to the middle (RSI 50 or center of Bollingers) you sell. And of course the same on the opposite with buying.
Yes that strategy would work, we can quickly eyeball it:
In practice this is not even what they do. A risk-to-reward ratio as enormous as puny 1-to-1.8? That's like 1% of retail. Never!
What they do is have super distant stops, or no stops. And quickly by looking at USDCNY you understand how they can win.
Shorts at a loss are all in a pullback, and the price never goes very far, so by just waiting they will turn into winners at some point.
In my example which wasn't the best part of the USDCNY trend, there are 6 short signals, and 3 longs.
The longs that are not winners quickly, will "never" recover so they'll take a loss on a far away stop here.
But some longs are winners, and most to all shorts are winners, the smaller the reward and bigger distance the stop is, the close to 100% winrate it gets on shorts.
To sum up, with their ridiculous high winrate strategies applied in the right conditions:
- The vast majority of trades are going to be winners no matter what
- Maybe 1/3 of the losers are in the wrong direction and will be big bags
- Maybe 2/3 of the "losers" are in the correct direction and eventually will recover
These troll retail gamblers are zooming in a flower to the molecule level and wondering why it suddenly went invisible. Must be magic!
They have no clue. There is an insect on the flower, that's why you can't see the flower molecule anymore you numbskull.
This indicator strategy I mentioned works on a trend, how about a nice thick really gross sideways?
Constantly stopped! But have no worries for the retail gamblers have a trick up their sleeve!
With a very wide stop such as the risk is 20 times the size of the reward you will keep winning! Hurrah! Martingale!
And then it will start trending in the wrong direction and the clowns will get wiped out.
And I can assure you, this happens more often than 1 in 20 times 🙂
Now we are getting to my favorite part: The holy grail in the title.
I went to myfxbook take a look at system. By default they show you only the ones with positive returns, and many of those are very recent.
No no no no no. let me change that filter to at least 1 year of activity, and any returns.
What's this? More than half show red returns? Oh my that's a lot of -99% 🙂
Most people quit before getting to -99.
How about I pick one of the "winners"? Weird, why are their open trades private?
Another one. Private. Another. Private. And another, private again!
Oh I found one! TrumpBot. Interesting, that's a lot of red sir.
70 open trades, almost all in the red. USDCAD, EURUSD, USDJPY.
All EURUSD are sells, and all the ones ones are buys.
He took plenty of short term trades (well long term now as he's been holding the bag for a while) LONG on the USDOLLAR. Oh no!
Remember USDCNH? Well these bags go back to early in the USD downtrend. He's been holding for nearly a year 🙂
L - O - S - E - R
Just takes 1 L to wipe out these clowns. They can hack some site to make losses vanish, and obviously the dum dums that buy these kinds of systems are too lazy to really do their research so they never notice it, but if it's real money IT'S REALLY GONE.
There are some guys that have been struggling to make money for 20 years and have sold robots for 10.
Is it cruel if I... roll myself on the floor while I laugh to tears? 🤣
What about all these "private" systems? They're holding bags too?
There is a name for this. It starts with an F. And ends with raud.
It is the rogue traders specialty.
They do a bit more (pros), call them "hedges", manipulate accounting for example,
take opposite positions to cut their losses while keeping them secret (unrealized)...
Here is a regulator release on famous Karen Bruton, known as "the supertrader".
She was made famous by Tom Sosnoff that had her appear on his show.
The SEC fined her and a partner to over a million dollar. She lost way more than that. No jail.
www.sec.gov
Tom Sosnoff is a market maker from the 80s that created a popular trading platform that he sold,
and now teaches people to sell option spreads. With no edge or risk it will return little money, like 1%.
Karen the Supertrader got superresults by leveraging that strat. Which causes it to LOSE money.
Looks like Karen couldn't figure out high school level maths, nowadays this got to be 2nd uni year,
the levels has collapsed it's amazing, my sister aiming for med school doesn't even HAVE math classes
since 16 year old, science with no maths, genius government.
"But kids don't like it", ye so let's make them even dumber than they already are!
Yes but Karen convinced investors, and even Tom Sosnoff and his colleagues, that she made money!
Ye, just like all the myfxbook trolls. She never closed the losers.
Plenty of realized gains, and much larger unrealized losses. Pathetic.
And the flip side?
Warren Buffett has held unrealized gains on Coca-Cola since 1987.
Never held losses very long. Ever. Some uni nerd looked at it.
We know because he has to report all positions.
Losers (and crooks) hold losers. Winners hold winners. That simple.
Automated
BINANCE - Shorterm #06LIVE
#SM.DUNZA-30min-BNBUSDT #BINANCE #BNBUSDT
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter arround: 620.04
TAKE PROFIT:
629.96, 635.54, 649.1800000000001, 657.86, 675.22,
STOPLOSS:
582.8376,
We recommend moving stoploss to break even once first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-05-01T22:00:00Z
ETHEREUM - Shorterm #08Here we have a new one today - LIVE - and here is the trade setup:
MONSTERBOT — Today at 6:01 PM
#SM.DUNZA-30min-ETHUSD #BYBIT #ETHUSD
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter around: 2932.25
TAKE PROFIT:
2979.17, 3005.56, 3070.07, 3111.12, 3193.2200000000003,
STOPLOSS:
2756.315,
We recommend moving stop-loss to break even once the first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-05-02T15:30:00Z
BITCOIN - Shorterm #24 - LIVE - Trade instructionsHello everyone.
In previous posts, I have noticed that some do not recognize the system or essence of this strategy.
The DUNZA strategy as we call it :) is a short-term strategy that can last from a few hours to a few days, but usually no longer, as all targets are picked up during this time or we get out of the trade to save profits.
Here on TV, we present the system, but of course the post is published with a delay after TP1 has already been picked up (this one is LIVE). As I have mentioned many times, when we pick up TP1 and raise the stop-loss to Entry, the trade becomes profitable. For each target picked, the stop-loss rises to the previous target - so the strategy is the most profitable with less risk.
- 20% of the position you are working with is picked up for each target.
- the total profit of all targets is 4.76% of the position
It is not necessary that all trades are won, it is important that you gain more than you lose ;)
So for this one, settings are like this:
MONSTER BOT — Today at 3:33 PM
#SM.DUNZA-BTCUSD-30min #BYBIT #BTCUSD
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter around: 56874
TAKE PROFIT:
57784, 58296, 59547, 60343.5, 61936,
STOPLOSS:
53461.56,
We recommend moving the stop loss to break even once the first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-05-02T13:00:00Z
BINANCE - Shorterm #05MONSTER BOT — Today at 4:48 PM
#SM.DUNZA-30min-BNBUSDT #BINANCE #BNBUSDT
Close long position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO SHORT POSITION
Enter around: 623.03
TAKE PROFIT:
613.05, 607.44, 593.74, 585.02, 567.57,
STOPLOSS:
660.40,
We recommend moving stoploss to break even once the first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-05-01T13:00:00Z
ETHEREUM - Shorterm #05TP1 collected.
#SM.DUNZA-30min-ETHUSD #BYBIT #ETHUSD
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter around: 2296.65
TAKE PROFIT:
2333.4, 2354.07, 2404.59, 2436.75, 2501.05,
STOPLOSS:
2158.851,
We recommend moving stoploss to break even once the first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-04-24T20:30:00Z
BINANCE - Shorterm #02TP1 collected...
#SM.DUNZA-30min-BNBUSDT #BINANCE #BNBUSDT
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter around: 502.72
TAKE PROFIT:
510.7737, 515.2982000000001, 526.3583, 533.3965000000001, 547.4730000000001,
STOPLOSS:
472.5662,
We recommend moving stoploss to break even once first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-04-25T12:00:00Z
BINANCE - Shorterm #01Let's see how these settings will work out.
#SM.DUNZA-30min-BNBUSDT #BINANCE #BNBUSDT
Close short position if opened.
OPEN NEW/ADD TO LONG POSITION
Enter arround: 506.90
TAKE PROFIT:
515.0104, 519.5725, 530.7243, 537.8209, 552.0141,
STOPLOSS:
476.48,
We recommend moving stoploss to break even once first TP is hit
Signal issued at 2021-04-23T14:30:00Z
Why using automated trading? #1There are a couple of reasons why to use automated trading, like better risk management, human error, easier to diversify, and Psychology
In this post, the focus is on psychology.
Here are some of the cognitive biases that affect trading:
Loss aversion - the tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. It feels much worse losing $100 than the joy from earning $100.
(A huge topic, the researchers got the Nobel prize for this)
Sunk cost - the tendency to treat money that already has been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent in the future.
In trading, this effect with loss aversion making people not cut their losses. When we enter a trade we know that a loss can happen, if the losses are not cut the rest of the money in the account can be lost too.
The disposition effect - is an anomaly discovered in behavioral finance. It relates to the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value while keeping assets that have dropped in value. Traders tend to lock in gains and ride losses.
Recency bias - a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones, in trading, a streak of losses can demoralize a trader even if he had a good run for a long time.
I don't know of a system that works 100% of the time.
There are more psychological effects, but those are the main ones.
Using automated trading, allows traders to reduce these effects on trading because the stocks are chosen in advance, the risk is defined, the entry and exit are calculated and executed by the algorithm (Unless rare events are happening).
In the past, I was sometimes afraid of entering a good trade or cut my loss quickly, due to these effects and wishful thinking that the price will do what I want.
How Profitable Is UMA's Recovery?After reaching the important support level between $18-$20, UMA started rebounding. Let’s see how much potential profit UMA could bring us if we bought in now!
Backstory: UMA’s previous strong growth was mainly due to an announcement regarding the arrival of the uSTONKS synthetic token. uSTONKS tracks an index consisting of ten stocks that are most commented on r/wallstreetbets. Wallstreetbets is a Reddit that gained popularity after pumping certain stocks (such as GME and AMC), making hedge funds lose billions of dollars in a short squeeze.
Recovery and Potential Profit
When the hype regarding uSTONKS started to die down, UMA’s price began descending. The price eventually reached $17, or 60% lower than the all-time high. Since then, the token has consolidated for a while, and now it looks like it is trying to start a new uptrend.
If UMA were to recover to its all-time high, it would mean a 110% increase in price, which would essentially more than double your funds if you were to invest now. A minor resistance on its way to a full recovery is the $24 price point. Breaking above $24 significantly would probably mean that UMA is attempting to reach its all-time high again.
Uncorrelated: One excellent aspect about UMA is that it is not as influenced by Bitcoin as the rest of the market. For example, when Bitcoin was trending strongly in October and November 2020, UMA wasn’t moving much. The token made its most substantial moves when it had positive news.
Disclaimer: We do not give trading recommendations; we only break down potential trades. Always do your own research before entering any position.
Mean-reversion - OVERBOUGHT - SHORT - VIXGreetings folks,
Price has pierced through the standard setting bollinger band and my mean-reversion system has indicated a setup.
The trading system with a preset 2:1 profit to risk ratio for this asset has historically:
xxx trades
xx %/R returns
Xx % winrate
Do let me know if I should expand the assets and timeframe of ideas that I share.
Cheers,
PineConnector
Mean-reversion - OVERBOUGHT - SHORT - USOIL WTIGreetings folks,
Price has pierced through the standard setting bollinger band and my mean-reversion system has indicated a setup.
The trading system with a preset 2:1 profit to risk ratio for this asset has historically:
116 trades
31 %/R returns
42 % winrate
Do note that there is a strong resistance just above at $64, highlighted by a user in my previous post!
Do let me know if I should expand the assets and timeframe of ideas that I share.
Cheers,
PineConnector
Mean-reversion SHORT - US100/NASDAQGreetings folks,
The tech index has been rising quite sharply since end of last Friday, forming a few large and strong bullish bars.
A pin was formed, though small, at the upper bollinger band with the default 20 period and 2 standard deviation settings.
My trading system recommends a short at the low of the pin with the SL be at the high of the pin.
The system historically has a 36% winrate with a 12(%/R) returns for the past 132 trades when locking in 2R (or 2x profit to risk).
Cheers
PineConnector
Bitcoin Enters a Consolidation PeriodAfter an astonishing breakout of the $20,000 resistance, Bitcoin appears to have entered a consolidation phase between $22,000 and $24,000.
Consolidation Importance
A bull market without any correction or consolidation is like a building without a foundation: it is shaky, and can collapse at any time. Therefore, consolidation helps bring stability to the market. When an asset is consolidating around a price level, that price level becomes important. Thus, the $22,000 and $24,000 price levels will likely act as support or resistance long into the future.
The Hourly Chart
Although we usually use the 1 day or 4h chart to showcase the current trend, the 1h chart is also among the most important timeframes. Many swing traders identify the trend on the 1 day and 4h chart, and use the 1h chart to time their entries and exits. On the other hand, intraday traders use the 1h chart to identify the trend direction, and then time their entries and exits on the 5 minutes and the 1 minute chart. Therefore, the hourly chart stands as the bridge between swing traders and day traders, making it one of the most used timeframes. Generally, the more popular a timeframe is, the more reliable it becomes.
The 150 EMA, which works well on the 4h chart, also works well on the 1h chart, albeit slightly different. On the 4h chart, this indicator can be used to point out the long term trend, and by long term we mean the trend of the next 1-6 months! On the 1h chart the 150 EMA can effectively determine the medium-term trend that usually lasts between 1-6 weeks. If the price starts hitting it sporadically in a short period, it may indicate that the uptrend has come to an end, and we are in a ranging market.
Gunbot Backtesting Automated Trading on BTC-XRP with +36% profitGunbot Backtesting Automated Trading on BTC-XRP with +36% profit
Gunbot Backtesting Gain-Gain 15 min strategy on BTC-XRP - +36% in Profits!
What's This Chart About ?
This is a Backtesting result for the Gunbot trading bot Gain-Gain Strategy (plus additional custom confirming indicators)
Coin-pair : BTC-XRP
Trading on: Binance
Gunbot Strategy : Gain-Gain
Estimated Profitability (LONG | Buy+Sell): ~ +36%
(Based on the last 21 days of trading history)
Gunbot Strategy Specs:
PERIOD = 15
BUY_LEVEL = 0
GAIN = 6
MFI_ENABLED = true
MFI_BUY_LEVEL = 45
MFI_SELL_LEVEL = 60
MFI_LENGHT = 20
RSI_BUY_ENABLED = true
RSI_BUY_LEVEL = 45
RSI_SELL_ENABLED = true
RSI_SELL_LEVEL = 50
RSI_LENGHT = 20
Optional Gunbot Strategy Settings (NOT included in the above backtesting chart):
- activate the DCA / Dollar-cost-averaging function in your Strategy settings ( this would re-buy 50% of the invested capital, each time the price drops 2% with a watching trigger starting when the price is at bought price minus 0.5% ).
- The CU_CAP_COUNT is the number of times Gunbot will trigger the DCA trading logic.Set accordingly.
DU_CAP = 0.5
DU_CAP_COUNT = 5
DU_BUYDOWN = 0.5
DU_METHOD = 2
Scripts used : Allanster's Gunbot Deluxe Tuners BE
www.tradingview.com
Automated Trading Bot used : Gunbot Ultimate
thecryptobot.com
_______________________________________
Gunbot is a Trading automation software for crypto-currencies . Gunbot works with following markets : Bitmex, Poloniex, Bittrex, Cex.io, Binance, Coinbase Pro (GDAX), Kraken, Bitfinex, Kucoin, Cryptopia, Huobi .
Available Trading Strategies in Gunbot 20
ADX | ATRTS | Bollinger Bands | Bollinger Bands (TA) | EMAspread | Emotionless | Gain | Ichimoku | MACD | MACDH | PingPong | StepGain | SMAcross | Trailing stop – stop limit | Time series analysis + more
_______________________________________
DISCLAIMER: By using this script, you agree to the 'Terms of Use' at TheCryptoBot.com, as presented on our website (TheCryptoBot.com) and below.
This script is strictly for individual use and informational purposes only. Any information provided on this website, or, via our website, or, via our profile, or via emails, is not to be considered legal or investment or financial advice. Investments are made at your own risk. TheCryptoBot.com is not responsible for any losses you may incur.
Awesome Trade in Bitcoin !!! +14% Auto TradingHello traders! I share with you the latest trade of Olivia Scalp BOT , closed yesterday near the top
+14% X1 leverage
Near 10R !!!
The trade was closed in $18205
I call this signal "Take Profit in Squeeze", and it's a rare signal that is given only when the price is too high or too low
SNX Maintains a Bearish OutlookSynthetix Network (SNX) has been one of the most profitable investments this year. However, the token is now facing a bearish outlook.
Recap: The Synthetix project is among the largest exchanges in decentralized finance. They have partnered with ChainLink to bring information about asset prices to blockchain without the need of a central party. Synthetix allows its clients to trade cryptos, currencies, precious metals, stocks, and other assets in the form of ERC20 tokens. This innovative system enables clients to "bet" on an asset's price without actually holding it (similar to CFDs).
SNX on the Chart
SNX rose to its all-time high of $7.75 on September 10, marking a 540% growth from January of this year. However, for the past three weeks, the token has maintained a bearish outlook comprised of lower lows and lower highs.
An adequate strategy to identify the short-term direction in the crypto market is the 10 and 30 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover. When the 10 EMA crosses over the 30 EMA upwards, a buy signal is given, and if it crosses the 30 EMA downwards, a sell signal is given. This strategy provides many fake signals in a ranging market, and you shouldn't rely solely on it. However, when the market has a clear direction, the strategy works well in identifying the trend. We have received a bearish signal from this strategy on September 30th.
If the price is unable to break the red trendline we drew, then we could use it as confirmation together with the bearish crossover of the 10 and 30 EMA that the token will continue selling off. There has been a reliable support between $3.8 and $3.5, which caused the token to bounce twice. If the price reaches that level again, then there is a strong chance that the token will bounce, especially if the general markets turn bullish. If that level breaks, then we can expect the price to reach the next support level at $2.75.