Tesla $TSLA #TSLA #TSLT $TSLTMy plan for Tesla over the next few sessions of ideas.
Its rather clear what I'm looking for here.
I'll use NASDAQ:TSLT (leverage) to average out the larger DCA issues should it start to get away from me while using regular NASDAQ:TSLA for the main idea.
I like doing this so that it is a lot easier IMO to catch back up with the in between moves as well as have a secondary way to TP while still holding the larger position for the bigger move etc.
Profits from one can be rotated into the other making it not only your hedge but also a bit of a self sustaining play.
Should we get some sort of flash crash I'll happily take that as an opportunity to build a larger long-term play in the $75-$125 ranges.
Once they get passed this next cycle of manipulation and back to the ones who control the media and analysts pushing it we will see it blow through most of these levels with ease and back to $200+
Once we get some news one of these months/years about bigger companies buying the A.I. tech etc. we will have a whole other narrative besides selling cars and hype.
Autos
Stellantis: Bearish ABCD with Multiple Monthly ConfirmationsStellantis: The Nvidia of Autos has formed a Bearish ABCD that is visible on the Monthly Timeframe with MACD Bearish Divergence and Bearish PPO Confirmation. If this plays out, we could see this go towards the C level, which aligns with the 0.786 retrace at €4.48
Tesla's bubble has burstIn late October 2022, we stated the bear market was poised to weigh heavily on shares of Tesla. Since then, the price dropped from 207.28$ to a low of 108.24$ (on 28th December 2022), representing almost a 48% decline. After that, the company’s shares briefly rose above 124$. However, with the start of a new year and its first trading day, shares fell more than 13% following the disappointing report concerned about the automaker’s delivery number.
As if it was not enough, the company has been experiencing troubling quality reports for years and regulatory scrutiny over its autopilot feature. Furthermore, its rivals are no longer behind the company’s technological progress, producing competitive electric vehicles and threatening Tesla’s well-being.
That comes as a blow to the company, which was once valued at more than the nine biggest automakers combined (globally) while producing only a fraction of vehicles compared to its rivals. Subsequently, that leads us to speculate that the hyper-inflated bubble of Tesla burst and will never reinflate to its previous size.
The production number of cars by year (Tesla):
2022 = 1 369 611
2021 = 930 422
2020 = 509 737
2019 = 365 284
2018 = 254 530
2017 = 101 027
2016 = 83 922
Sales by brand (rough estimates) for comparison:
Tesla (2022) = 1.31 million
BMW Group (2021) = 2.52 million
Mercedes Benz cars (2021) = 2.09 million
Ford Motor Company (2021) = 3.94 million
General Motors Company (2021) = 6.29 million
Toyota (2021) = 9.56 million
Volkswagen (2021) = 8.88 million
Hyundai Kia (2021) = 6.66 million
Honda (2021) = 4.45 million
Illustration 1.01
Yesterday, shares of Tesla hit a new low at 104.64$. Currently, the price is too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs. Therefore, we are cautious as this often precedes price retracement toward these moving averages.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Illustration 1.02
Rising volume hints at tremendous selling pressure in shares of Tesla.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Ford running out of gas?Ford - Short Term - We look to Sell at 13.89 (stop at 14.82)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. Selling continued from the 61.8% pullback level of 14.41. The gap open from 14.34 to 13.94 has now been closed. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 11.01 and 10.40
Resistance: 14.20 / 14.41 / 15.33
Support: 13.55 / 12.50 / 11.01
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Tesla - Breaking out of a wedgeTesla - Short Term - We look to Buy at 177.90 (stop at 163.33)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 237.00 and 262
Resistance: 200.82 / 237.40 / 265.25
Support: 169.91 / 166.19 / 150.83
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Volkswagen stuck in reverse?Volkswagen - Short Term - We look to Sell at 145.76 (stop at 152.42)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. We have a Gap open at 145.76 from 19/08/2022 to 22/08/2022. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 120.52 and 115.00
Resistance: 145.76 / 151.50 / 160.86
Support: 137.68 / 128.10 / 120.56
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Retail Sales - Macro Data US CB - www.census.gov
Advance Monthly, Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Reports, and the Quarterly E-Commerce Report.
July decline of 1.1%. - dismal
August - Back to School - dismal
September - Back to Business - dismal
The August 2021 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on September 16, 2021 at 8:30 AM EST
Retail tends to follow Auto sales - Forecasters expect U.S. auto sales to decline in August 2021
Sales for August 2021 are expected to be around 1.1 million cars and trucks combined, down 13.7% vs. August 2020
and down 25.3% vs. pre-COVID
Auto Sales - Off the Cliff - TESLA FanBois ImmunityMartha's Vineyard parties are Legend.
While Faucci suggests large groups of people gather without
wearing masks... many will die.
"These people are dangerous."
After all there people eat at Sonic and many went to a
Community College.
Papers please, Vaccine Passport Por Favor.
The China Passenger Car Association reported that Tesla's sales
in China fell to 8,621 cars in July, down 69.7% from June sales.
Tesla Vehicle sales accounted for 3.9% of July sales of EV's in China
A decline of 12.6% Month over Month.
Tesla believes that China will be 40% of deliveries for Tesla in 2022.
With respect to the Long Con and Tesla - Tomorrow never dies, there
is always "Hope" projections will deliver.
They will not.
May have found a base and turn upAfter reaching an ATH just above 75, the price has since fallen back and consolidated after failing to reclaim the upward trend line. Long entry above 51.49 is a confluence above the.236 fib as well as the VPOC, more conservative entry is at reclaim of the trend line. This may also have a possible earnings run-up approaching late November.
A surprising bull case for General MotorsGM has been a company in decline for many years, and the coronavirus hasn't helped matters. Over the last three years, EPS shrank about 8.5% annually and SPS about 2% annually. The coronavirus caused GM to suspend its dividend, which at over 6% was the main reason for owning the stock. GM's stock price tanked hard, and I have to say-- based on current consensus estimates, GM has some absolutely *terrible* PEG and PSG ratios. Ordinarily I would short this stock hard.
However, the times may be a' changing for GM. Today the company absolutely walloped Wall Street estimates for Q2, with revenue 3.6% above expectations, and a loss per share that was only a third of the loss the Street expected. Guidance given on the conference call for the second half of the year is for $4-5 billion EBITDA, roughly 50% above the current Wall Street estimate. GM burned $8 billion in cash in Q2, but expects to generate $8 billion in the back half of the year, allowing the company to pay off the $16 billion revolving credit line it took out earlier this year. I should point out that all this guidance was tentative and contingent on continued economic recovery. But if it pans out, then I think we could see at least a partial restoration of GM's dividend early next year.
On the macroeconomic front, I see lots of signs that the auto market may continue to recover. Although revolving credit (e.g. credit cards) has been in decline during the pandemic, non-revolving credit (e.g. home and auto loans) has actually increased. Loan rates have been falling, and consumers are taking advantage of low rates to snap up homes. Home-buying data have blown out analyst expectations for the last couple months. What's good for homes should also be good for autos. Auto sales in June recovered slowly, from -30.2% YoY in May to -28.7% YoY in June. Auto sales are expected to show faster recovery in next week's July retail sales report, around -18% YoY. Fleet sales are expected to improve from -70% in June to -40% in July.
(Why bet on autos rather than homes? Because homes are supported by a government eviction ban that will be repealed at some uncertain future date, making that market risky. In the auto market, I have more faith that the numbers we're seeing reflect real market fundamentals. Here's another thought: with Americans moving out of cities and into suburbs and avoiding mass transit, auto demand may increase on permanent basis.)
Perhaps more importantly, GM's CEO said she expects "exciting updates" for GM's "Cruise" self-driving unit in the second half of the year. GM is a technology leader in the self-driving space, with only Google's Waymo ahead of it in the technology race. The self-driving unit thus may hold the key to a turnaround in GM's long, multi-year earnings slump. Some positive headlines from this unit would be a huge relief for embattled GM investors, and might even create some excitement around future growth.
For the near term, note that GM is currently trading in a triangle and is near the bottom of the triangle range, making this an attractive buy point with some technical support. In coming days I'd expect to see some analyst upgrades and upward earnings revisions on GM as analysts digest the optimistic guidance from the earnings call. I suspect we'll test the top of the triangle in the next two weeks, and perhaps break out the upper side in the event of a July auto sales beat.
TSLA Confirms Higher Trading Range, but Expect a near term Sell!Likely return to volatility within Range C. Recent drop places 200-Day below current level, possibly causing a retest of $250-270. Likely more buying opportunities as many ring the register but this Earnings based confirmation of the Range C trading levels confirms the long with enough volatility to trade it. China Gigafactory, improving trade deals, etc, many reasons to trim here but stay long with a rebuy at $275.