Tesla's bubble has burstIn late October 2022, we stated the bear market was poised to weigh heavily on shares of Tesla. Since then, the price dropped from 207.28$ to a low of 108.24$ (on 28th December 2022), representing almost a 48% decline. After that, the company’s shares briefly rose above 124$. However, with the start of a new year and its first trading day, shares fell more than 13% following the disappointing report concerned about the automaker’s delivery number.
As if it was not enough, the company has been experiencing troubling quality reports for years and regulatory scrutiny over its autopilot feature. Furthermore, its rivals are no longer behind the company’s technological progress, producing competitive electric vehicles and threatening Tesla’s well-being.
That comes as a blow to the company, which was once valued at more than the nine biggest automakers combined (globally) while producing only a fraction of vehicles compared to its rivals. Subsequently, that leads us to speculate that the hyper-inflated bubble of Tesla burst and will never reinflate to its previous size.
The production number of cars by year (Tesla):
2022 = 1 369 611
2021 = 930 422
2020 = 509 737
2019 = 365 284
2018 = 254 530
2017 = 101 027
2016 = 83 922
Sales by brand (rough estimates) for comparison:
Tesla (2022) = 1.31 million
BMW Group (2021) = 2.52 million
Mercedes Benz cars (2021) = 2.09 million
Ford Motor Company (2021) = 3.94 million
General Motors Company (2021) = 6.29 million
Toyota (2021) = 9.56 million
Volkswagen (2021) = 8.88 million
Hyundai Kia (2021) = 6.66 million
Honda (2021) = 4.45 million
Illustration 1.01
Yesterday, shares of Tesla hit a new low at 104.64$. Currently, the price is too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs. Therefore, we are cautious as this often precedes price retracement toward these moving averages.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Illustration 1.02
Rising volume hints at tremendous selling pressure in shares of Tesla.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Autosector
Cup and Handle Pattern in GNA AxlesCup and Handle pattern forming on the Weekly Timeframe. points that are adding conviction for further upper side.
. Increasing volume with an increase in price.
. Breakout of consolidation on the daily timeframe of 700-710 levels.
. Increasing Relative strength against Nifty 50.
. 680-700 levels acting as a good demand zone.
Entry near 720-730 levels with 50% quantity and rest quantity near 760-770 levels .
Initial Stoploss near 690 levels and then keep trailing your stoploss according to the price action.
possible Targets: 800 level and then all-time high levels.
(((30% to 45% upside possible with stoploss of about 5%)))
Greves Cotton Levels & Strategy for next few daysDear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support & resistance levels. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered member. Information shared by me here for educational purpose only. Please don’t trust me or anyone for trading/investment purpose as it may lead to financial losses. Focus on learning, how to fish, trust on your own trading skills and please do consult your financial advisor before trading.
Company is focusing on accelerating adoption of electric vehicles and transforming last mile mobility with clean transport solutions has strengthened their leadership position in this fast-growing electric auto market. Company posted net profit of 32.3 crore & net loss of Rs 23.3 crore. Stock has beaten 3 year revenue CAGR. Electric mobility segment posted highest ever quarterly profit.
Federal-Mogul Goetze India - Demand at 200 and Supply at 360Context - Dropped 65% to 200 in 2022 after 20x Up to 600 in 2019
In June'21 supply emerged at 360
Move up to 330, once demand appeared at 200 in Dec'21
Plan -
to Purchase Breakout above 360
or, rejection indicators below 260
PB 2x; PE 29x; ROCE 9%
MARUTI - Price Action Analysis Weekly TFThe bull run of NSE:MARUTI has reached at the same levels where it was rejected earlier in Jan 2018.
The same we can get using bearish harmonic shark pattern with level of .887 at the price of 9400 in weekly TF.
So we can calculate Supply zone in-between the range of 9400- 9700.
There will be higher chance of correction from here.
BUY : Buying opportunity only comes either price will give breakout above 9700 and sustain with good momentum and volume. then next target will be 10500 which derived from the harmonic level of 1.131
SELL : Short opportunity only comes if price will start making LH-LL in daily TF with rejection confirmation candle that leads price again with level of 7700-8000 .
So who carried from the long time can start to book their profit and new buyer and seller can wait for the either side of the confirmation.
My view still at the bearish side because Auto sector has already given a good rally and now compare to negative global cues and all, some correction may happen over here.
so do accordingly.
If you have other opinion, please share your comment below and like & follow for upcoming great analysis.
Safe Trading ;)
TVSMOTORS Cup & Handle breakoutAuto sector is in bullish momentum considering the hype around electric vehicles and reducing steel prices.
TVSMOTOR is looking very bullish and looks like a good positional trade.
It is very close to its ATH of approx 814 and is currently on the verge of giving ATH weekly closing.
EICHER MOTOR LIMITED. A Hidden Bull In The Auto Sector. This Is The Detail Analysis Of The Eicher Motors Limited Which As Given The Breakout At Monthly TimeFrame.
PATTERNS:
1. HEAD AND SHOULDER.
2. FLAG AND POLE.
THE STOCK IS LOOKING STRONG AT MONTLY TIME FRAME, IT AS GIVEN BREAKOUT IN THE MONTH OF JULY AND NOW IT IS TRYING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE BREAKOUT LEVEL WHICH IS THE GOOD SIGN OF A CLEAR AND LEGIT BREAKOUT.
TATA MOTORSHello and welcome to this analysis based on Harmonic Trading Patterns
In the daily time frame it has made a Bearish Harmonic ABCD pattern with perfect balance symmetry.
It could retrace down to 440 - 430 as long as it does not trade above 461
As per Option Data also July Series 460CE is seeing fresh shorts being added and 440PE is seeing short covering. While August Series 460CE has already formed a very strong OI resistance with more being added currently.
NIFTY AUTO Trend AnalysisWorst scenario for those who are bullish thinking of potential Cup with Handle pattern formation on a broader outlook or reverse Head & Shoulder pattern on a narrower outlook.
If you look carefully, you can see the descending broadening wedge clearly as highlighted in my chart.
You can zoom out to see the broader view of my chart with all the drawings.
Technically this chart looks almost similar to the Ashok Leyland chart I have posted earlier this month.
TDI is at upper band with NIFTY AUTO nearing the resistance zone in confluence with the edge of pitchfork and upper edge of the descending broadening wedge highlighted.
Moreover a strong hidden bearish divergence in MACD histogram is observed on weekly timeframe. (Not applied here because chart is on daily timeframe).
Expecting a fall of approximately 30-33% towards 7700-8000 level, which is next possible support zone lying near golden Fib level.
The fundamental attributes of major auto companies are not looking good specially with the declining OPM% (At lowest levels).
It's better to avoid FOMO in auto sector stocks because of all good news and invest after this big correction or else keep averaging.
Do your own due diligence before taking any action.
Peace!!
5/25/22 ANAuto Nation ( NYSE:AN )
Sector: Retail Trade (Specialty Stores)
Market Capitalization: $6.427B
Current Price: $114.84
Breakout price: $118.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $109.60-$96.90
Price Target: $142.80-$144.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 399-407d
Contract of Interest: $AN 1/20/23 110cc
Trade price as of publish date: $20.10/contract
Ashok Leyland BreakoutThe stock has broken out and retested, so it may undergo a rally. Trade is supported by brokerage calls and Supports Nearby.
Risk Reward Ratio - 2:1
SL is placed below support zone & the previously upper trendline. The target is placed based on fundamentals and near swing high.
M_M might move towards 800 levelsDaily Chart - Stock is mostly sideways on the daily chart.
Hourly - Stock had lower low, lower high structure, though recently the length of downswings are getting smaller and stock also went above previous high, and it looks like it is started to create a higher high structure.
Hence sustaining 748- 745 levels, it can move towards 800 in the coming week.