Pound takes a dive, retail sales nextThe British pound is sharply lower on Thursday as the US dollar has rebounded against the major currencies. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1787, down 1.07%. We continue to see sharp swings from the pound in November.
Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement was much more in keeping with the difficult economic times than the ill-fated mini-budget back in September, which set off a financial crisis and emergency intervention from the Bank of England. The Finance Minister's budget outlined major spending cuts and tax hikes and Hunt stated that the government and the BoE were working in "lockstep". The fiscal austerity in the new budget is a step in the right direction, but the pound nevertheless has taken a tumble today.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast indicated that the UK is currently in a recession, which will see unemployment jump from 3.5% to 4.9%. The BoE's outlook is even worse, with unemployment forecast to hit 6.5% and negative growth expected in the second half of this year, throughout 2023 and into the first half of 2024. GDP declined by 0.2% in the third quarter, and the headwinds look formidable for the UK economy and the British pound.
The investor euphoria which sent the stock markets rallying after the soft inflation report has taken a pause, and the US dollar has rebounded. Fed policy members sought to dispel any thoughts of a Fed pivot, reminding the markets that the Fed was planning to raise rates higher than they had anticipated. The hawkish Fed speak may or may not have convinced investors to settle down, but a strong US retail sales report clearly did the job.
The headline and core releases both posted strong gains of 1.3%, dampening sentiment that the Fed was turning dovish. US consumers continue to spend despite inflation and rising rates, an indication that the Fed can continue to raise rates and probably avoid a deep recession. Interest rates are expected to peak at 5% or slightly higher, which means that the Fed is highly likely to continue tightening into next year.
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There is resistance at 1.1961 and 1.2030
GBP/USD has broken below support at 1.1896 and 1.1786. Below, there is support at 1.1660
