Gold - $3160 before the next move up?Introduction
Gold is currently exhibiting interesting price behavior across multiple timeframes, reflecting a mix of short-term bullishness within a broader context of consolidation. On the one-hour chart, gold is trading within a well-defined rising channel, suggesting a controlled upward correction following a strong impulsive move downward. This upward movement appears to be a retracement rather than a full reversal, especially when analyzed in conjunction with the higher timeframes.
Daily tight range
Zooming out, gold remains range-bound between the key levels of $3,500 and $3,200. The market has been oscillating within this wide horizontal band, making relatively equal highs and lows. This type of price action typically signals indecision or accumulation, where neither buyers nor sellers are firmly in control. Such a range can often precede a more decisive move in either direction once a breakout occurs. Until then, the market remains reactive to both support and resistance zones within this range.
Latest Gold sell-off
Yesterday’s trading session introduced a notable shift in momentum, as gold posted a large bearish candle on the one-hour chart, marking a sudden and aggressive sell-off. This move established a short-term bearish impulse. Since that moment, however, the price has been gradually recovering, climbing back within the confines of the rising channel. This rebound appears corrective in nature and has yet to reclaim the previous levels before the sell-off. Above the current price action lies a one-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could be an area of interest for liquidity hunters. Should gold manage to break out to the upside of the channel, it is quite possible that price action will aim to fill this FVG, which sits around the $3,300 level. This could represent a short-term bullish target before any potential continuation lower.
Bearish scenario
On the flip side, the more compelling scenario from a technical standpoint lies on the downside. If gold fails to sustain its upward trajectory and breaks below the lower boundary of the rising channel, the probability of a move toward the strong support level at $3,160 increases significantly. This level is particularly noteworthy because it aligns with multiple technical confluences. It represents a historical support area where price has previously reacted strongly, and it coincides with the so-called “golden pocket” of the Fibonacci retracement, typically considered a high-probability reversal zone by many traders. The presence of this confluence suggests that a breakdown could trigger a swift move toward this level, possibly attracting buyers once again if the support holds.
Bullish scenario
While the potential to move higher toward the $3,300 region and fill the FVG remains valid, especially if the current bullish momentum within the channel continues, it is, in my view, the less probable scenario. The recent sharp downward candle suggests that sellers have established control in the short term, and the current upward movement may simply be a retracement before a continuation lower.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the most likely and technically supported path for gold appears to be a breakdown from the rising channel, followed by a decline toward the $3,160 support level. This zone, bolstered by historical significance and Fibonacci confluence, presents a strong target for price if bearish momentum resumes. While a temporary push toward $3,300 is possible, especially to fill the FVG, it should be seen as a lower-probability scenario compared to the downside risk currently unfolding.
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