Avax
Alikze »» ALGO | Ascending corner pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending corner pattern
- It is moving in a downward channel in the daily time frame.
- It was mentioned in the analysis presented in the previous post, after the failure of the supply zone, it will have the ability to continue the trend until the next supply zone. But it faced selling pressure in the first supply area, which led to a correction of 0.23 from the previous wave.
-Currently, it is in a corner pattern, which after the break of the channel, a pullback to the roof of the descending channel has been done.
- Also, with the support of dynamic trigger, it can lead to escape from density.
- Therefore, by leaving the density, it will have the ability to reach the specified goals and also the supply area.
💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it faces selling pressure in the area of the high dynamic trigger and does not have a correction in the form of a soft landing, it can continue to correct up to the range of 0.097 with the failure of the low dynamic trigger.
💎 Note: If Fibo 0.23 is not maintained and below the stabilization zone, the bullish scenario will be invalidated and should be reviewed and updated.
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BINANCE:ALGOUSDT
#AVAX/USDT#AVAX
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour frame and is sticking to it very well and is expected to break it upwards
We have a bounce from a major support area at the lower line of the channel at a price of 23
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 23.69
First target 24.81
Second target 25.70
Third target 26.86
AVAX : Potential Reversal in MACRO TFA downtrend, or bearish trend is characterized by a few things including making lower lows and lower highs. This is evidently seen when pulling up the macro timeframe and applying trendlines towards major bounce zones or wicks.
Similarly, an uptrend is characterized by the price making higher lows, and higher highs. Currently, we are only seeing ONE of these conditions met - the higher lows. This does not mean the price cannot retrace towards the trendline. However, as soon as the trendline is lost, the higher lows is invalidated and the price remains BEARISH.
A fall UNDER the trendline would likely lead to a revisit of a wick at $17.
While you're here👀 Make sure you check out yesterday's post on 3 Alt that are bearish right now:
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BINANCE:AVAXUSDT.P
AVAX Long Position (Potential Bounce in Conviction ZoneMarket Context: AVAX is still in a downtrend but has retraced over 60% from its previous high and is trading in a strong conviction zone. The price is setting higher lows and has reclaimed the 21-day EMA, signaling buyer strength.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Long spot position around $23.
Take Profit:
First target: $29 - $32
Second target: $40 - $44
Stop Loss: Daily close under $20.
(BTC) bitcoin "auto fib retracement - 100"BTC falling beneath the 100 auto fib retracement.
Other cryptocurrency also beneath the red layer of the auto fib retracement include;
AVAX, BADGER, CELO, COIN, CURVE, DASH, EGLD, HFT, KSM, MINA, RAD, SUSHI...and ICP is in the red unlike the other top traded cryptocurrency remaining in green, neutral or blue areas of the auto fib retracement.
Others below the red line include:
IMX, SUPER, AUCTION, PERP, IDEX, NMR, OGN, YFI, BLUR, DYP, STORJ, UMA, AXS, BTRST, SEI, APE, C98, DIA, LDO, METIS, GRT, TIA, MATIC (POLS), XCN and FX.
Still no info from the newly listed tokens/coins of 2024.
Sept 4Overview:
Today marks a mini anniversary—exactly one month since the 15% COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC crash on August 5th, which concluded a 7-day bearish correction. This correction was the third wave in a 28-day cycle. Why does this matter? BTC tends to follow relatively short cycles and typically doesn’t take longer than a month to make a decisive move in either direction. If there’s momentum left, it’s time to pump. If not, we may see a dump.
The Fed reported 7.7 million job openings in July, the lowest level since 2021. This was below the estimated 8.1 million and June’s 7.9 million. Job openings have been declining since March 2022, the month when the Fed first raised rates after cutting them to 0% in response to COVID-19. However, this figure is still higher than the peak of 7.6 million in November 2018. The Fed's goal isn’t to reach the same numbers as in 2018, but if we apply the growth in the U.S. economy since then, 7.6 million jobs in 2018 would be equivalent to 8.46 million in early 2024. Hence, discussions of an interest rate cut on September 18th are gaining momentum.
On Wednesday, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ both opened and closed lower than the previous day, though they posted green candles. Despite this, their relation to the previous day is bearish. So far, this September is shaping up to be like others—Labor Day weekend is over, professionals are back at their desks, and business cycles are picking up (the last three trading days have shown higher volume since August 9th).
As we mentioned yesterday, BTC’s new trading range is between $55.8k and $58.4k. It touched the lower bound of $55.8k at 9 PM NYC time and then climbed to $58.5k 15 hours later but has been sliding down since.
BTC ETF flows have been negative for the last 7 days, despite occasional daily green candles. At Evgen Capital, we believe ETFs represent a less crypto-enthusiastic crowd, akin to the shoe shiner who once gave stock tips to John Rockefeller—prompting him to sell. As with the Fear and Greed Index that we quote regularly, one should move in the opposite direction of ETF flows. If they are negative for an extended period, it’s time to start buying. If they’re posting all-time highs, it’s time to sell.
W: Up until today, it was a green weekly candle, but it has now turned into a red doji. Can it hold the $55.9k level? We don’t see many reasons for a quick dump, so BTC might remain in this range for another week. Big volatility is expected next week ahead of the September 18th rate cuts. Neutral.
D: RSI is at 41. The last time it was here was August 15th, which preceded a 15% pump over 10 days, trapping the bulls. Bullish to neutral.
4h: Neutral.
1h: At the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands with a low RSI. Neutral to bullish.
Alts relative to BTC: No divergences or major breakouts.
Bull case: There is still time before the historically bearish October to push BTC up to 60k. ETFs are showing signs of capitulation, with 7 consecutive days of sell-offs.
Bear case: There’s a lack of enthusiasm toward crypto, and negative news, like the SEC sending subpoenas to COINBASE:UNIUSD investors, continues to emerge.
Fear and Greed Index: 34. No change.
Prediction: For the rest of the week, BTC will likely retest the $55.9k level. If strong volume and buying power come in, bulls might be able to push through.
Opportunities: Weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. COINBASE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and COINBASE:AVAXUSD show bullish MACD divergence. Even though BTC has been sliding lower, these altcoins reached their lows a few days ago, when we reported BTC-to-alts divergence. This is the time to decide which side to take and to set stop-limit orders.
Alikze »» TIA | Ready to pullback to the broken structure🔍 Technical analysis: Ready for a pullback from the liquidity zone to the broken structure
- According to the analysis of the previous post , TIA currency is moving in a downward channel.
- As can be seen, lower floors and ceilings are forming, which further reinforces the bearish view.
- Currently, in the 1D time frame, it is in the liquidity zone, which can target 3.17 with a pullback to the neckline and then the green box zone.
- Therefore, in the case of a pullback to the broken structure and selling pressure in the Fibo area of 1.618, it can touch the mentioned targets.
💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it can break the neck line, it will have the ability to grow up to the supply area of the previous ceiling and the ceiling of the channel.
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BINANCE:TIAUSDT
Alikze »» SUI | Daily FVG gap🔍 Technical analysis: Daily FVG gap
- According to the analysis presented in the previous post, after creating demand in the green box area, it grew to the supply area.
- Currently, according to the structure formed in the supply area, a twin roof with a shorter roof is observed.
- But in the 8H time frame, it is moving in a descending channel. Demand has also been met at the bottom of the channel.
- Therefore, according to the FVG gap in the 1D time frame, if the selling pressure continues, it can make a correction to the green box area and retest it to fill the gap.
💎 Alternative scenario: also, if he can break the middle of the channel upwards, he can retest the supply area again.
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BINANCE:SUIUSDT
AVAX analysis (1D)From where we put the red arrow on the chart, it seems that AVAX has entered the correction phase.
We now seem to be in the F wave.
The price can drop down soon.
If the g wave is normal, it can end on Entry 1.
But if the g-wave is extended, the g-wave can continue up to the Entry 2 range.
Risk-averse people can wait for Entry 2, and risk-taking people can enter the range of Entry 1 and Entry 2 in the form of martingale.
We have such a view on AVAX.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
AVAX Technical AnalysisAvalanche (AVAX) Analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) has been gradually recovering after a significant drop that saw the price decline from the $31.89 level down to a low of $17.29. Recently, AVAX has been trading on a support zone (Yellow) at $20.69 - $23.04, indicating some consolidation as it attempts to regain bullish momentum.
Currently, AVAX is hovering around the $23.05 mark, just above the critical support zone (Yellow) at $20.69 - $23.04. Despite this recovery, AVAX faces strong resistance near the $24.53 level, as seen in the recent price action.
While the market is showing some signs of recovery, a further downside movement towards lower support zones, particularly the $20.38 level, seems possible if the buying pressure weakens. If AVAX fails to hold above the support zone (Yellow) at $20.69 - $23.04, it may re-enter a bearish phase, pushing the price back towards the lower support level that could determine its medium-term direction.
AVAX is currently at a crucial juncture, with the potential for further downside if it fails to break key resistance levels. Traders should watch for the price holds above the support zone (Yellow) at $20.69 - $23.04 for a potential bullish continuation or a rejection that could lead to a retest of the lower support levels.
AVAX🔍 AVAX/USDT Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe 📉
The AVAX/USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s essential to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 8, 2024, 9:00 AM - Red Line: This time marks a potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to reduce exposure or take profits.
• September 12, 2024, 9:00 AM - Green Line: This time indicates a potential local low, offering favorable conditions for accumulating AVAX or entering long positions.
• September 19, 2024, 5:00 PM, September 25, 2024, 6:00 PM - Red Lines: These are additional times marking potential local peaks, suggesting moments to consider exiting positions before a downturn.
When working with this 4-hour timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
AVAX has a good trade set upAVAX on the weekly chart is setting up a good risk reward trade set up. This is a weekly chart so it will take some time to play out.
We have modified MACD about to cross the zero line. MarketCipher momentum wave turning. Modified RSI is at the bottom turning.
I will accumulate between $20-23 dollar range. Below 20 the structure breaks and that would be a stop loss.
This is not a financial advise. Please DYOR.
Aug 24Overview:
As we begin the last week of August, we might be heading into a very turbulent period. On one hand, BINANCE:BTCUSD hasn't even broken its previous bull run's all-time high when adjusted for inflation. Neither the halving nor ETF demand was enough to push crypto higher, and now we have some altcoins like BINANCE:AVAXUSD trading 30% below their January 11th BTC ETF levels. On the other hand, the FED is finally planning to cut rates on September 18th, which could potentially loosen the printing press. Remember when it was going "BRRRR"? Well, it technically never stopped—just in the form of government spending. Unfortunately, that windfall doesn’t seem to reach speculative assets.
Congratulations on last week’s gains, with some coins such as COINBASE:ARBUSD , BINANCE:MATICUSD and BINANCE:AVAXUSD posting +30% gains. If you bought the dip, this is a great moment to take some profits, or at least move your SL higher.
This Sunday was the first in four weeks that didn't post a red candle, as we noted in a previous letter. But it wasn’t very green either, closing with a 0.11% doji. The red candle was merely postponed to Monday morning.
The U.S. Employment Report on Friday, September 7 at 8:30 am is crucial because it will provide key insights into how the recent interest rate hikes are affecting the labor market, particularly regarding rising unemployment and jobless claims. As the Federal Reserve continues its tightening policy, this report could signal whether the economy is heading toward a slowdown, which would influence future monetary policy decisions.
Quick note regarding BINANCE:TONUSD On August 20th, we mentioned that it "finished drawing its 'Motive' part of Elliott's wave pattern. In about 40 hours, it might finish drawing the B wave, presenting a short opportunity that will last throughout the C wave down." Unfortunately, the market witnessed the C wave not because of Elliott's wave but due to Pavel Durov being arrested by French police the moment his plane landed. TON crashed that day by 18.40%. Although Pavel isn’t the founder of TON, he is closely affiliated with it.
W: Reached BB MA. If bulls can hold the $63.1k level, there’s a chance for a 4th wave to $70k.
D: Held the important bullish W level of $64k. It’s better to have that buffer between $63k and $ 64k for bulls to regroup and go on the offense again. Currently at the upper bound of BB. If the next W level of $63.1k doesn’t hold and it corrects to BB MA, it will hit the D level of $61.8k.
4h: Losing the $ 64k level early Monday morning in the U.S.
1h: MACD divergence yesterday, on the 25th at 8 pm NYC time. We are now seeing the result of that divergence.
Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins didn’t hold as well as BTC over the weekend, correcting from the heights of the pump: BINANCE:UNIUSD 10% BINANCE:SUIUSD 9.56% BINANCE:NEARUSD 8.25%
Bull Case: BTC holds W levels and continues pumping with new strength toward $68.2k.
Bear Case: This was a classic bull trap—one last breath, one last wave, one last pump before a free fall toward $52.2k.
Fear and Greed Index: 56.2. We’ve been bouncing in the Neutral zone since May 19th with occasional and insignificant peaks into the Greed territory. However, even this chart has been drawing lower highs and lower lows.
Prediction: BINANCE:BTCUSD corrects to $61.7k
Opportunities, at W, 4h Divergences of Major Alts:
Since BINANCE:NEARUSD broke through its W resistance of $4.38 during the recent pump, it’s very likely to return to that level, which should at least become new support. This presents an 8.62% short opportunity.
BINANCE:SUIUSD has drawn a MACD bearish divergence on the D timeframe and has also just hit its W resistance level of $1. TP at $0.85, which is 10.00% away.
BINANCE:TAOUSD reached its upper W resistance. Correction to D level $304 could produce a 12.51% return.
BINANCE:FTMUSD is at its resistance level. There’s an opportunity to make 17% by shorting to its next W level of $0.40.
AVAX USDT 15M🔍 AVAX/USDT Analysis: 15-Minute Timeframe 📉
The AVAX/USDT chart on a 15-minute timeframe highlights significant upcoming times where price movements may present trading opportunities. For short-term, intraday, or scalping trades, consider focusing on lower timeframes, but always ensure to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
• August 24, 2024, 01:15, August 24, 2024, 14:00, August 25, 2024, 01:45, August 25, 2024, 20:45 - Red Lines: These times mark potential local peaks. Traders might consider these as moments to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• August 24, 2024, 05:30, August 24, 2024, 19:45, August 25, 2024, 08:45 - Green Lines: These times indicate potential local lows, providing favorable conditions for accumulating AVAX or entering long positions.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC+3 (Kyiv/Istambul).
AVAX USDT 4H🔍 AVAX/USDT Analysis: 1-Hour Timeframe 📉
The AVAX/USDT chart on a 1-hour timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. As always, it is crucial to analyze these signals in conjunction with higher timeframes for a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
• August 24, 2024, 17:00, September 6, 2024, 05:00, September 19, 2024, 17:00 - Red Lines: These times mark potential local peaks. Traders might consider these as moments to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• August 31, 2024, 21:00, September 12, 2024, 09:00, September 24, 2024, 21:00 - Green Lines: These times indicate potential local lows, providing favorable conditions for accumulating AVAX or entering long positions.
When working with this 1-hour timeframe, keep in mind that these movements should be evaluated with a global perspective, considering higher timeframes to better grasp the overall market trend.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
AVAX $300+ This Bull RunBuckle up ladies and gentlemen, we are at the part of the cycle where we are nearing the end of the consolidation period and are getting ready to catapult, BTC at any moment will break 62k and when 70k is broken the true alt season run will occur. Avax is putting out a lot of amazing things and doing on chain collabs for example the California DMV is building their titles on AVAX which is actually insane making real life utility. $300 is a good base target but we can easily push 4-500$
Avalanche: Recovery!AVAX recovered last week and rallied within our turquoise Target Zone (between $17.48 and $29.30). We now expect the price to be carried out of the Zone by the turquoise wave 3 and above the resistance at $41.78. However, we still have to keep our alternative scenario (40% likely) in mind. This option calls for a lower low of the turquoise wave alt.2 below the range.
Alikze »» NEAR | C wave correction leg🔍 Technical analysis: C wave correction leg
- It is moving in a descending channel in daily and weekly time.
- At the last stage of correction, it can extend to the area of the bottom of the channel and the green box.
- Therefore, considering that it has faced selling pressure in the middle of the channel, if the supply zone does not fail, the correction will continue up to the specified zone and Fibo 1.618.
- The range of 2.479 to 2.768, if faced with demand, can provide a suitable area for buying and a return to the middle of the channel.
- This zigzag correction, if it is not combined and complex, can continue the upward trend after completing the last corrective leg, according to the behavioral scenario presented in the previous post.
💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it can meet the demand in the middle of the channel, it can have a temporary growth up to the ceiling of the supply range of the channel.
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BINANCE:NEARUSDT
Are we going to see lower low?I entered a long position as I mentioned in the last idea on $AVAXUSDT. What BINANCE:AVAXUSDT doing is most likely to go down to the 19.5 area first, because there is no big impulse and CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is not giving a chance to alt-coins. The yellow line is very crucial which is holding the last lowest point since the last higher high. But if the yellow line breaks in the 4H and 1D timeframe we are likely to see the 15.5-14.5 range before the big impulse.