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200 EMA - best use for entries!I don't use indicators, they're not my style, they lag, they repaint; and in my opinion they don't work. The 200 EMA on DAILY can be useful because of how slow it is. We can use it to filter the direction of which way we trade. Price ABOVE 200 ema = ONLY BUY Price BELOW 200 ema = ONLY SELL Then drop timeframes for your entries via your strategy whatever that may be. If your strategy says go long but price is below EMA, don't take the trade etc... Ignore the EMA on other timeframes lower than the daily. You want a slow daily direction indicator. Don't blindly trade this, wait until price is clearly past the EMA and maintaining a good distance from it. Use it as a guideline if you struggle working out fundamentals to help you filter a direction to trade. NOT TO REPLACE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS!!!
Education
by joebrownFX
Trade Journal - Long $PINS - Holy Grail Trade - 2/19/2020PINS recently gapped from earning but failed and pulled into the previous gap up area. PINS had recently bottomed last year but broke out and is now in a strong uptrend holding the 20DMA. Following this gap up and pullback, PINS is now at the 20DMA and bounced off it on the 30m timeframe. This is considered a Holy Grail Trade where a trending stock holding the 20DMA pulls back into the 20DMA. Entry - 23.61 Stop loss - 22.60 Target - 27
NYSE:PINSLong
by Trader_Kaji
What is Currency Weighted Average in Forex Trading? Why Currency pairs going up or down? If EURUSD pair goes up from 1.2500 to 1.2510, the Euro has increased in relative value by 10 pips because either 1) EUR has strengthened, or 2) USD has weakened, or 3) Both EUR and USD have strengthened but relatively at different pace, or 4) Both EUR and USD have weakened but relatively at different pace But how do you study Euro or Dollar on its own and not as a counter currency of a pair? For example how do you know that how powerful Euro is at a particular point of time. In fact there is no exact way to do it. Some people say studying European indices or European yields may help but unfortunately the correlation among currencies and indices and yields are not always consistent and may lead into misjudgments. Here I will show you how to study each “single currency” on its own rather than studying “a pair”. If you want to buy Amazon shares, you need to review Amazon market only but in Forex trading if you want to trade a currency pair like EURUSD, two markets should be reviewed, the base currency market and the counter currency market. But the problem is that there is no EUR market or such that and there is no USD market. Therefore, EURUSD can be up about 1% but for the same day another EUR pair like EURGBP might go down for 1%. Then how can we say whether EUR is rising or falling on that day? This can be a lot more complicated when you add other currencies like EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCHF and EURJPY. In other word you might have strong EUR, CHF, CAD, GBP and weak USD, YEN, AUD, NZD. Then how could I come to a conclusion about EUR? You cannot say that unless you use EUR Currency Weighted Average. If you make your decision based on EURUSD on that day, you can easily lose all the profit earned from EURUSD by investing in EURGBP and adding the commission you will have a losing day! Most people when trading a pair, look at one single chart and run their technical analysis based on that single chart only. For example in trading EURUSD, they draw supports and resistance lines or use indicators like EMA, SMA or RSI to predict the direction of the move. In addition they may also review related US and European indices for that day but is it enough? I challenge it as most important pieces of information is missing that how does EUR and USD reacts to other currencies at that point of time. For EURUSD we should check EURUSD in addition to other EUR crosses like EURGPB, EURJPY, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCAD and EURCHF. Also USD crosses like USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD need to be reviewed too. But how can we review 13 markets before trading EURUSD. The answer is EUR Currency Weighted Average and USD Currency Weighted Average that make us able to summarize all these 13 charts into 2 charts only. If weighted average Euro shows you that Euro at that particular time is weak and EUR has a losing day, then you would not have gone Long EURUSD even if all your indicators shows you that EURUSD is bullish. Using weighted averages helps you to prevent getting into the trades that are less likely to be winning. Let’s say you studied your charts and you think EURUSD is bullish and EURGBP is bearish. But when you studied EUR weighted average charts it shows you that EUR is bearish at that point of time, then which one of these trades you take and which one you ignore? Yes, you will go Short EURGBP and wait a bit longer to enter EURUSD Long trade. Even if you argue that what if USD has become weaker recently, which can lead into a great EURUSD, then I would say, there are still plenty of EUR crosses which does offer a better set up. Market movement for weighted averages If you are going to trade a pair, you should know how powerful each currency is depending on the time frame you use for trading. If both currencies moving in the same direction, then you should not trade that pair. For example, if both EUR and USD are getting weaker then trading that pair is not appropriate for trading where you can find other currencies that are moving opposite each other. The key point is to find a pair with each currency moving opposite each other. Where to Start? Your first objective in trading any pair is to find any 2 currencies that are moving opposite each other. For example one gets weaker while the other gets stronger. In fact this is a basic math, earlier it is mentioned that the quotation EUR/USD (EURUSD) 1.2500 means that one euro is exchanged for 1.2500 US dollars. In other word EUR divided by USD equals 1.2500. This is a ratio and the ratio becomes greater if 1) the nominator (base currency) relatively becomes greater 2) the denominator (counter currency) relatively becomes smaller. Your rate of success in trading EURUSD gets higher if EUR and USD moves in opposite direction with maximum speed for example EUR gets larger and USD gets smaller quickly. If spend hours of studying your charts but on that particular point of time both EUR and USD moves in one direction, for example both gets weak or strong you do not make any money as in the best situation you need to close the trade at break even. The worst case scenario is when you are Long on EURUSD and EUR gets smaller and USD gets larger then you lose become more and more as time passing by. How many charts should I study before trading a pair? The short answer is 3. In addition to chart which you are willing to trade there are two more charts that must be studied in advance which are the weighted averages of the currencies which you want to trade against each other. Here is the list of these 3 charts assuming you intend to trade EURUSD 1) The weighted average of base currency, EUR 2) The weighted average of counter currency, USD 3) EURUSD chart A lot of people just study the third one, These people are missing two important pieces of information. Why weighted average and not simple average? In calculating a simple average, or arithmetic mean, all pairs are treated equally and assigned equal weight. But a weighted average assigns weights that determine in advance the relative importance of each pair. For example, most pair are around 1.00 but JPY crosses are almost 100 time greater than other pairs as usually JPY is 0.01 of other currencies. Using a simple average leads to an answer which heavily depends on JPY movement which is incorrect. Hence, we use weighted averages that takes into account the relative importance of each pair. In the next post I will show you how to calculate Currency weighted average and how to add that into your watchlist in TradingView. Please if you find this post useful, LIKE this post and leave a COMMENT below. With kind regards and thanks, Dr. Ehsan Khansalar
by khansalarehsan
29
More down-time to come but big things aheadshort insight here. As you can see, our previous bottom before dropping to 3k at the end of 2018 has become our triple bottom and the uptrend has now carried through. We have moved equal volume as the run up in July 2019 and our 50MA is is looking to get with that 200MA to make sweet love. I believe we will fall to 8.2 - 8.3 k to find our support levels from Sept/Oct 2019, and that may be when we see a golden cross form, which will carry us to 10K. Anything after that is not worth speculation, I dont believe we have much game in 10K yet, and anything moving back up that high will just for a 3rd top on a very large time frame. Remember, look at the bigger picture. (Get off the minute charts, ya clowns.) Cheers, -Money
by BingoMoney
Trading Plan for the week commencing 4 NOV 2019Friends, I hope you had a great trading week. Some of the currencies did not move much last week. For example YEN (-0.22%), CHF (+0.3%), GBP(+0.24%) and EUR (+0.15). That means if you traded these currencies most likely you closed your trade too early as you believed your trades not moving in the direction predicted but the fact is that they did not move at all and it requires time and patience. But great move by CAD (+1.65%), AUD(+0.82%), USD (-0.74%) and NZD (+0.73%). All above stats are based on weighted averages on Weekly charts. Now let’s review the possible scenarios for the coming week. USD (Bearish) If you remember last week I said USD will be bearish but it has some upside room. This is what has happened during the FED meeting and completed the task after NFP. Indeed USD had 5 losing sessions. For next week I think you can see the target in the chart below Look at USDOLLAR Weekly. What else you want as a confirmation of a bearish move? Breakout, visiting the breakout area and off the EMAs. US 10 years Yields has been trading inside a wedge formation and I am in favour of down move as it is below EMAs and Sellers have a target on the lower band of the formation. EURUSD for the first time broke the falling trend line (Weekly) and pulled back into the breakout area and bounced again and closed nicely higher off the EMAs. Similarly Cable closed above the falling trend line after almost a year I bet you love USDCAD chart Weekly. Very clear and transparent breakout, bounce and rejection of the major resistance area AUDUSD did not quite broke the resistance but with a massive bullish move last week, it adds to the bearish USD scenario. USDJPY on weekly does not look convincing bearish as Stock made all time highs last week but we had only a negligible +0.13% in USDJPY and see all EMAs above. Same as NZDUSD weekly as NZD has been depreciating massively over the last a few months and taking this higher needs a lot of efforts from Buyers. We may have Inverted H&S and every 101 months NZDUSD make a Turn. We are in months 102 right now! AUD (Bullish) Last week this Currency highlighted as Bullish, Similarly in the coming week I will remain Bullish however we have very strong resistance on the way up. Any move higher will be limited and profit should be banked sooner for this currency. Similar to NZD, this currency is ready to break to the topside. See the inverted H&S. This is what happened last week for AUD (H1) NZD (Mutual) Last week I was bearish on this currency and I was wrong. But right now see very strong resistance above it on D1. At the same time on NZDUSD it has a very nice Inverted H&S which suggest a bullish move. Overall I think there might be a change in the sentiment for NZD and it may turn into a bullish market but the question is when? To be honest I do not know and currently I have two positions on this currency over the weekend. NZDUSD Long and NZDCHF Long. First one look fine but I am in lose on NZDCHF. CHF (Bearish) Last week I was bearish on this currency and for the coming week I will remain bearish. It is trading below the pitchfork median and EMAs. Until it the resistances are not broken I will remain bearish EUR (Bullish) EUR is not going anywhere and if you trade any EUR cross, you should focus on the counterpart as EUR moving slower than a snail. But it is trading above the support as you can see. GBP (Bullish) Sterling not going anywhere too but it has a target up there. I think we might have a quick spike to the upside and then it turns lower. JPY (Bullish) Yen is not going anywhere too! The fact that Stocks made all time high we should have seen big bearish move on YEN but we did not. Gold moving higher puts pressure on YEN to stay higher and it has a lost of room to go higher. Going lower is more challenging considering the current level of supports below. If Stocks pulls back next week then USDJPY will be a great Short trade. Thanks for reading this post. Have a great weekend. KHAN
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by khansalarehsan
1
Bro. Remember the 128 day moving average during a bull market. During a BTC Bull Market, that is, the current market, BTC uses the 128 day moving average as a support. I feel like a lot of traders are feeling short term bearish when they absolutely shouldn't. Descending Triangle...I get it. But last year's descending trial which broke mega bear was during a bull market. Heres some food for thought. Although a descending triangle is a bearish pattern, perhaps the odds of it breaking to the upside are significant when one considers the BULL market that we are in. And of course, when one remembers the 128 day moving average. Bro. BTC LONG 11200...... like long trade of course we might wick a little low but all that is.......is opportunity ;-) Peace. Elbow Grease, and Fiat Defeat!!! Moon bro.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TheProfitableTrade
1
Unique indicator by DeMark: TD Moving AverageDear friends! I continue describing the collection of Thomas DeMark’s forex indicators. In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as Today, I going to deal with one of the most commonly used indicators in the trading world. This is the moving average MA, but it is not just a usual MA, it is Thomas DeMark Moving Average (TD Moving Average). Anyone, who has ever employed this indicator, knows that it, on the one hand, is rather simple to use and sends quite clear signals; on the other hand, it has a number of significant drawbacks, as it is ineffective in high volatility markets or nontrending markets. In addition, the moving average is a lagging indicator, therefore relying on its signals alone in its usual form is not the most effective trading strategy. Of course, you can increase the period of the Moving Average to reduce the number of false signals, but in this case the lag will be even greater and there will not be much sense in such signals. If you significantly reduce the MA period, the lag from the price will be minimal, however, the number of false signals will sharply increase. Thomas DeMark invented a new kind of the Moving Average indicator. He tried to maintain the advantages of the indicator but eliminated its drawbacks. That is how there appeared two indicators: TD Moving Average I and TD Moving Average II. TD Moving Average I was originally designed as a trailing stop, and it was to indicate the level to exit a trade. However, the indicator in fact has become very efficient in identifying the trends in the market and finding out not only the right exit levels but the entry points as well. At the same time, like all other TD indicators, TD Moving Average I is drawn based on relative price movements, rather than absolute values, and therefore, no separate settings for each timeframe are required. So, in order to avoid a time-lag, you just need to track the indicator on shorter timeframes. Before I start explaining the indicator, I want to thank @GravityWave, who made this indicator available to everyone in the tradingview library. Let us study the case when a moving average signals a bullish trend It occurs when the current bar’s low is greater than all previous 12 lows. If this condition is met, the indicator analyzes the current price bar and three more in future. If during the period of these four bars, the low isn’t higher than the 12 previous lows, the line disappears. If during one of these four bars, the low is higher than 12 previous lows, TD Moving Average I will be active during at least four next bars. It is clear from the above figure that once there is a bar whose low is greater than 12 previous lows, there starts a bullish TD Moving Average starting from the 12th bar .https://www.tradingview.com/x/kYCYRC0d/ The chart above provides a good example of the rule when the moving average is extinguished, i.e. the bullish trend is cancelled. You see that the low of June 27 is lower than the previous 12 lows and the next three bars can’t consolidate their lows above the 12 previous ones. Therefore, as soon as there are four bars complete, there is a reversal signal at the fourth bar and the bullish trend extinguishes. In general, if we know how this indicator is constructed in such cases, as it is demonstrated in the chart above when the low is much lower than the previous ones, we can already understand that the lows of the next three bars will hardly exceed the highest low of the last 12 bars. So, without wasting time, we can already look for a point to exit a trade. If we go back to our example, it is clear at already the third bar that the highest low at 11 741 USD won’t be broken through, and so, one could take profit from the long trade, rather than wait until the fifth bar closes (marked with a red tick). This case illustrates how a thorough understanding of the indicator work principle helps employing it as effectively as possible. When there is a downtrend, a bearish moving average is built according to a similar calculation formula. Only 12 highs are analyzed instead of the lows. It is clear from the above chart that once there is the 13th bar whose high is lower than 12 previous highs, then, starting from the 12 bar, there starts a bearish TD Moving Average, which is a sell signal. If we apply the above conditions to the same chart, there will be an interrupted moving average, where the green line drawn under the lows will indicate a bullish market, and the red one, above the highs, indicates a bearish market. In this case, according to the classics, the entry point will be the first candle in the trend (indicated by the arrow in the chart above), and the exit point will be at the close of the bar after the projection crosses the last value of the bullish (bearish) TD moving average (the points are marked with crosses in the chart above). As it is clear from the chart above, if the market is trading flat, such trades don’t yield significant profits, and may often result in losses. To rule out such cases, one should employ this indicator together with other DeMark's tools, including TD Moving Average II. This indicator is displayed in the chart above (thanks parsak21 for free access to the tool!). TD Moving Average II is made up of two simple moving averages (SMA) that are drawn based on the close. The short-term MA is a 3-period line, the long-term one is a 34-period SMA. Whereas TD Moving Average I needs a specific condition to be met in order to appear on the chart (so that it can indicate the market is trending), TD Moving Average II is always displayed. The tree-period moving average is drawn in comparison to the close level two bars ago, and the 34-period moving average is drawn based on the previous bar. Unlike traditional moving averages, however, TD Moving Average II applies a rate of change (ROC), to each of the averages. I described the rate of change (ROC). Therefore, the market sentiment is purely bullish when the ROC is in the buyer zone, and the short-term three-period MA is above the thirty-four–period moving average. In the above figure, I highlighted such zones with green. As you see, they cover most of the bullish trend. When the ROC is in the neutral area or in the seller zone, one mustn’t buy. Those, who have long positions open, should take the profit, even if the short-term MA is still above the long-term 34-period one. Finally, if you apply the TD Moving Average I, the TD Moving Average II and the ROC together, you will have quite a safe trading strategy. A buy entry will be indicated when all the above tools send a buy signal (marked with a green arrow). However, as MAs are a lagging indicator, I recommend looking for an exit point in short-term timeframes. In our example, the entry point is in the daily timeframe. So, the exit point will be signalled when the TD Moving Average I indicates a bearish trend on the H4 timeframe. As you see from the chart above, there are hardly any false exit signals on the historical data. In addition, we have always been in the trend and taken the most profits from the bullish trend. We shall see how this strategy will perform in future. So far, I have finished describing another tool by Thomas DeMark. I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles. Subscribe not to miss the continuation! I wish you good luck and good profits! Great regards! Mikhail @Hyipov ________________________________________ PS: If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
by Hypov
16