Major Trend Reversal Trading (Part 1)The basic premise of Major Trend Reversals, From Al Brooks Video Series. I will be trading this way for a while.
Average
(SWING)Good 1-2-3 pattern to continue a bullish bias. Expecting to break the resistance level but maybe too extended to break now. Looking for a small pullback or flag to work off the overbought stochastic.
DOW INDUSTRIALS - % STOCKS > KEY EARNINGS LEVELI've been doing this analysis by hand since April 28, 2015 in a spreadsheet at Google.
4/28/2015 1:30 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18111 17960
4/29/2015 9:44 AM 40.00% 60.00% 18083 17975 PFE, MRK reported
4/29/2015 2:26 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18055 17975
4/30/2015 9:55 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17968 17970
4/30/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 17930 17977
4/30/2015 3:54 PM 40.00% 60.00% 17876 17977
5/1/2015 10:30 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17977 17977
5/4/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 18102 18052 Apple rally faded right near KEY LEVEL.
5/4/2015 3:50 PM 43.30% 56.70% 18070 18038
5/5/2015 4:00 PM 40% 60% 17928 18039
5/6/2015 11:40 AM 40% 60% 17,865.67 18039 Biggest spread from the KEY LEVEL I've seen. Bond mkt and US DOLLAR tumbling
I've also added "% of stocks above their 50 day moving average" since I think that might approximate this indicator and to just see how helpful it is and to learn.
I've noticed so far that the market has traded quite closely to the KEY LEVEL so far.
Note we are right on the 66-day moving average, which is 1-quarter of data, which certainly is the time frame of the distance between earnings reports.
I put "short" on here because the DOW is below the KEY EARNINGS LEVEL of 18039.
How you want to trade it is up to you: I think you can execute right "at" the KEY level by selling a rally up to it and risking 1 average range. The target might be just 1 average range also. That is just one method of trading this. You could certainly trade this any way you see fit. The key is knowing if the market is being "accumulated" or "distributed" and as it is now, it is being "distributed" since we are below the average KEY LEVEL. It shows that people are disappointed with the earnings reports and the forecasts for the coming quarter.
Cheers.
Tim 12:02PM EST May, 6, 2015
Moving Averages H-L Trigger Envelope SystemFirst created by Charles LeBeau and David Lucas
Recreated here on TradingView by JR and Ricardo Santos
By default triggers are set at fast 2,3,4 MA's. You can change the inputs as you like.
OBV Triangle and it's price equivalentI drew a triangle based on OBV's 50 hour moving average (orange),
and mirrored the triangle on price.
Red and green areas are 80/20 % overbought / oversold zones.
At this moment we are in the overbought zone so you can try a short here.
I expect a big move of ca. 50% after price breaks out of the triangle.
Targets:
Upside: 333-375
Downside: 130-90
Cheers : ]
-- PS: Here is the pine script code for the OBV indicator with moving averages: pastebin.com
A Simple FOREX trading plan: 2 moving averages and the MACD 3 simple rules and you are set. Try to get your entries close to the 20 SMA.
If markets are not moving much try this on other markets, maybe stocks.
$TSLA, lots of technical resistance, lots of potential$TSLA has a lot of resistance at the current levels. However, if Tesla can reclaim the 50 day, it is a sign of strength, and could lead it to the next high of ~$320.
A reclaim of the 50 day means: Gap is almost filled, $245 resistance broken, regression channel broken, and of course the 50 day is broken, leaving only $265 resistance, which isn't as strong.
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me:
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
US Oil Short From Bullish Flag; High Risk:Reward RatioUSO has broken it's uptrend a few weeks back, and since has been heading violently lower with no signs of stopping, at least not yet. Not in my eyes. I had a plethora of converging indications, so I've marked them in the chart A - F, and then explained my trade setup. Good luck.
A) RSI has broken above the 35 level, but this is likely because it bounced a bit from being oversold. It remains below 50 which is a bearish indication and still has resistance at the 40 level.
B) The cream of the crop. B marks the head of a head and shoulders pattern in USO. You can see when the neckline was broken here, while simultaneously breaking a series of important EMAs, USO began it's slide. We would expect some sort of throw back to this neckline. This will be important in our trade setup later.
C) Here is our bearish flag and Andrew's Pitchfork. You can see the slight countertrend movement off the lower bollinger band, and what now looks to be a hanging man. This entire move up is hitting resistance in the pitch fork, as well as the flag formation, and has formed entirely on declining volume. That's not a positive sign for continued upward momentum.
D) PSZ (Prior Support Zone) from way back when. I'm expecting a move down into this zone where it will coincide with support at the lower BB or lower median pitchfork line. We may get a bounce down here, or more consolidation.
E) Volume Decline Throughout Bear Flag
F) Declining & Still Negative MACD
The one thing I didn't like here was the RSI, and that the weekly chart shows that we may need a throwback before extended downward momentum. This is where that neckline comes into play. We may very well see a throwback to the 66 area before we are awarded with any serious downside momentum. However the weekly RSI is also in a downtrend, reinforcing our bearish outlook. I'm short a directional diagonal on this play, to take advantage of Theta decay, and let oil slowly drift lower in my favor until we reach that prior support and I debate what the next play will be. More downside, or a retracement? Maybe a renewed uptrend? Who knows?
DAL Long - Consolidating Flag (Bull); Risk:Reward > 10:1The idea here isn't very difficult to understand. DAL has made a run up from $35.51 on August 8th, where we saw a bounce off the 150EMA, a personal favorite area to get long for me, especially looking at the weekly chart for this. Anyways, from the top down:
1) Bullish RSI Holding 60 Support
2) Established Uptrend - Long Term
3) Bounce off 150 EMA
4) Long $4.46 move straight up through all EMA(8/21/50), through resistance, and consolidating above.
5) Broken Downtrend
6)Weekly Uptrend Is Beautiful - Right At EMAs (8/21)
(My Screen Is Too Small To Pull Up Both Simultaneously)
Cons:
1) MACD Is Positive
2) Momentum Tapering As We Consolidate
I like the chart, and like what I see. I'm getting long here. Possibly with a covered call, but maybe something else. Not sure what other plays are available with such low volatility, but the verticals and diagonals are getting old.
DAL Long - Bull Flag ConsolidationThe idea here isn't very difficult to understand. DAL has made a run up from $35.51 on August 8th, where we saw a bounce off the 150EMA, a personal favorite area to get long for me, especially looking at the weekly chart for this. Anyways, from the top down:
1) Bullish RSI Holding 60 Support
2) Established Uptrend - Long Term
3) Bounce off 150 EMA
4) Long $4.46 move straight up through all EMA(8/21/50), through resistance, and consolidating above.
5) Broken Downtrend
6)Weekly Uptrend Is Beautiful - Right At EMAs (8/21)
(My Screen Is Too Small To Pull Up Both Simultaneously)
Cons:
1) MACD Is Positive
2) Momentum Tapering As We Consolidate
I like the chart, and like what I see. I'm getting long here. Possibly with a covered call, but maybe something else. Not sure what other plays are available with such low volatility, but the verticals and diagonals are getting old.
