Stock Traders Almanac Monthly AnalasysThis is an analyzation Yale Hirsch's book "Don't Sell Stocks on Monday" in which he defines stock markets high/low months over the past 100 years.
High Months: January, March, April, July, November December
Low Months: February, May, June, August, September, October
Green Lines mark Positive Correlation with High Months
Red Lines mark Positive Correlation with Low Months
White Lines mark no Correlation for the month.
8 times out of the past 3 years the averages were wrong for an %80 accuracy.
Averages
Observation of Moving Average Order in the SPX on 2HR (Updated)Updated & More Accurate- Interesting alignment between my selection of EMAs, SMAs, and Fib MAs. 2 HR chart. Market could keep going higher as long as this curve upwardly steepens. Resolution --> 3 weeks in during September of 2018, and three weeks in during Feb 2020 are the last two times this distinct sequence occurred. Still getting used to TV; not sure if the chart is clear on the screens of others. 3 weeks in during August 2020, what happens next?
Investing in BTC according to an Event HorizonThis is just the harmonious curves resulting in the geometric averages between highs and lows of historical cycles.
You should use this as a baseline to buy and sell BTC, depending on your event horizon (in time).
This is more of a HODLer or LONGer investment plan than short, but it should provide a baseline to you.
Also, I'm not a technical analyst, I just like geometry a lot, and I find it serves as a very good tool for prediction.
These analysis I make mostly for myself, to see how they withstand (or not) the test of time.
Consider this *not* financial advice.
Peace; out.
TNT / USD is in a very healthy bull marketHigher highs and higher lows, price above 200-day, 50 day above 200 day, 200-day having recently began turning upward. Good signs :)
#INWK - Bullish Momentum - Above MA's - More To GrowInnerWorkings, Inc. engages in the provision of marketing execution solutions. It includes procurement of marketing materials, branded merchandise, product packaging, and retail displays. It operates through the following segment: North America, EMEA, and LATAM. The North America segment includes operations in the United States, and Canada. The EMEA segment comprises of operations in the United Kingdom, continental Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The LATAM segment focuses its operations in Mexico, Central America, and South America. The Other segment consists of intersegment eliminations, shared service activities, and unallocated corporate expenses. The company was founded by Scott A. Frisoni, Richard A. Heise Jr., John McIntyre and Eric Paul Lefkofsky in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.
SHORT INTEREST
3.05M 09/30/19
P/E Current
-3.22
P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items)
-3.13
Average Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT
Average Target Price: 6.33
3 MAs playground: a pretty Bullish Chart ;)We've some pretty good reasons to *HOPE* price won't badly fail the test of SMA100/W, a key level.
Are we in (C) already ? Then a successful test of such support may pave the way up.
[ This is an educational exercise on weekly MA, not a trading advice. Take it with grain of salt ]
$TRX/BTC 1D: Close to the bottom? Justin Sun has some explaining to do...
Daily time frame, the orange line is resistance.
Potential bottoming out here shortly on TRX, I am watching the moving averages for a potential long entry but this chart does look like a bloodbath. If things start to turn around here a long entry under 200 would be ideal, with the first target of around 330. Not taking this position yet, mainly neutral here seeing how things play out in the lower part of this TRX chart.
HMY - Still running With Strong Supports In PlaceAs of late, it has definitely been a great time to be an investor Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited HMY. The stock has moved higher by 82.6% in the past month, while it is also above its 20 Day SMA too. This combination of strong price performance and favorable technical, could suggest that the stock may be on the right path.
We certainly think that this might be the case, particularly if you consider HMY’s recent earnings estimate revision activity. From this look, the company’s future is quite favorable; as HMY has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), meaning that its recent run may continue for a bit longer, and that this isn’t the top for the in-focus company (Source: finance.yahoo.com)
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in gold mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction and processing. The Company's segments include South Africa Underground, Surface, and International. The South Africa Underground segment includes Kusasalethu, Doornkop, Phakisa, Tshepong, Masimong, Target 1, Bambanani, Joel, Unisel and Target 3. The Surface segment comprises the Company's other surface operations. The Company's International segment comprises Hidden Valley Project. The Company has operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The Company's principal product is the Gold bullion. The Company's exploration projects include Golpu project and Kili Teke prospect. The Company has approximately nine underground mines, one open pit operation and several surface sources in South Africa. The Company's subsidiaries include Lydenburg Exploration Limited, Tswelopele Beneficiation Operation (TBO) and Harmony Copper Limited.
SHORT INTEREST
6.8M 07/15/19
P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items)
-3.50
Analyst Recommendation: BUY
Weekly Forecast Price Outlook (Frontrunning Bitcoin) So my last idea was the monthly (published about 2 hrs ago)...
here is a breakdown to the next time frame down (the weekly) it's a rough forecast with no TDseq numbers drawn, only the red line as you can see to represent about where I think the price action will travel, but it gives the basic idea of what I'm expecting in the future - THIS IS WAY down the road, so I will update accordingly as time goes on.
I drew some forecasts of where the MA's will be in colored dotted lines, once again, rough straight lines, but close enough
If you're interested in learning, give a like and subscribe at my youtube channel : look up "Kick Back Time" on youtube
There, if I start to get subscribers, I will be encouraged to teach through screen sharing videos. You will learn A LOT more that way.
Once again, this is frontrunning, it's not an actual sure thing, only what I think is likely to happen. ALWAYS trade what the technical analysis tell YOU, NOT mine or even your own opinion
BEWARE OF SHORTING ! at this time guys, you can get run over real easily with all these bullish indicators going right now, just look at the Moving averages on this snapshot alone. The long term trend is set
Kick Back Time
BTC - Looking for a weekly close above $7K+++I took off a few tenths last night above $8200 to raise a little cash but still sitting on over half a billion Satoshi on the long side. I just like trading so I set aside 1 BTC to "play with" while keeping the majority of my long position.
I am still looking for a weekly close above $7K to confirm the lower channel breakout like last time. (Yellow Circles) If this follows a similar pattern we could have several more weeks of bullish activity before a major retrace. Of course, that's just an observation and a hunch not a guarantee.
We are also coming up on a weekly cross of the 20 and 40 week moving averages. This will be a huge confirmation of the new Bull Run IMO.
If I can scalp a couple hundred bucks here and there along the way great. If not, I'll just remain long.
Good luck everybody!
Back to the bell curve and exponential growth: adoption cycle goThe sixth is here and I want to remind people first and foremost that BTC doesn't have to do anything that we predict it will do. As a matter of fact if manipulation is as strong as some people believe then it is most certainly not going to do what the overwhelming masses believe. Just as it's best to buy when there is blood on the streets, it's going to be best to buy when every one else is selling. So let's see how plausible it is from here to get to $25k and even $30k.
I'm going to put this in real simple math terms to show what the average daily growth needs to be to meet these goals. We are at just over $7.5k so I think with the volatility still in the market swings of a couple hundred dollars are still very likely. I'm going to also estimate that we only have about 180 days left this year.
$25,000-$7000 = $18000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the shorter trend-line. 180 days left in the year means that on average we only need to gain $100 dollars per day. $18000/180 days = $100. Gains and losses can be found in the 15 minute and 5 minute charts every now and then so for the daily chart to reflect this is really really plausible.
$35,000-$7000 = $28000 The amount that we need to increase to get to the end goal of the second over-all trend-line. The simple 180 days again puts us at a gain of $156 rounding to the nearest dollar. $28000/180 days = $155.56 average increase per day.
Now with these simple numbers, apply them to the bell curve that I've presented in the past and think about adoption. Are people running from bitcoin as a whole or adopting it even more on the whole. Use cases are still few but improvements keep coming. Even as a store of value, it is still going to increase in use for a while and that adoption rate is not going to be linear. Hence the reason I used parabolic lines. As for the two beacon examples of BTC and block chain being adopted...Taiwan and Korea. There are also a plethora of countries in turmoil where BTC is being adopted as a way to not use native fiat currency. All of this outside of the normal developed nations trying to make this more usable.
Now with this said, $7000-$4000 = $3000. This $3000/180days = $16.67 dollars of loss per day over the next few months to take us down to $4000. It is really easy to see that a BTC price of $4000 is entirely plausible if things were linear, but for an adoption cycle to be exponentially increasing we would have to be on the downside of the bell curve to get there easily, and we would have to also see an agreement of sell-off between a lot of parties otherwise.
For us to reach $4000 at this moment which I do believe is possible but unlikely, there would be a sell off great enough to counter act the adoption process and the reason I'm not worried about that is because if it happens that spring is going to be compressed under so much pressure that the bull run afterwards will dwarf what we saw in 2017. I don't believe that it would happen right after the fall because a lot of people are going to lose trust in the system, but after it settles again there would be a massive buying frenzy.
We appear to potentially be breaking above the rising wedge.While I've been confident we would break up from the current rising wedge instead of down from the head and shoulders pattern for roughly a week now, I wasn't sure if that would be before another retest of the head and shoulder neckline at the bottom of the wedge or not, but now we have two 4 hour candles up out of the rising wedge with an hour and 5 minutes left before the current one's close. Until we see a surge in bullish volume we haven't confirmed the breakout so keep that in mind...I'd say a smart place to buy in would be a couple pips above the 4hr 50ma (in orange) because that is our current resistance and for us to reach 2 pips above it will likely require flipping it from resistance to support. I'm confident if we flip that moving average to support we will confirm the breakout so I have a stop buy set up for 2 pips above the ema.
6 MAs (exponential optional)I just wanted a single application that would allow me to check/uncheck the MAs I wanted to see for various time frames. I've been using the 7 and 30 period for weekly observations of crypto and the 20,50,128 and 200 for other views such as the 20 day, 50 day, 128 day and 200 day MAs.
This allows me to open the settings and uncheck what I don't want to see and vice versa.
Stock is set to SMA but EMA can be activated by simply opening the settings and checking the box.
US Equities Consolidating, Expecting Continuation 4-25-18The Dow Jones has been technically accurate. It is printing a rectangle, which is either a continuation or reversal pattern. Aggressive traders may wish to short at the top of the rectangle for an expected continuation breakout below toward the strong support and price targets below. Otherwise, trade the breakout, whichever direction it is (up is always possible).
9 candle closes above the 4hr t line ;3 closes above 50MAShort and simple update. After breaking up out of the most recent descending wedge on the 4 hr chart, and reaching the projected upward breakout target of that breakout we now have 9 closes above the t line and 3 closes above the 50MA Buy/Sell Line with 10 minutes left in a candle that also looks like it will close above both of those lines as well. Once it does that will mark 10 closes above the t line and 4 above the buy sell line....one more close above the buy sell line and we will be back in a buyers Market....so in anticipation of this I am going long...but as always will be prepared for the exact opposite outcome should it reverse course...Looking at the stoch rsi it seems like it wants to continue upward for a little while before retracing so I think it's a safe move. You choose your own path however as this is not financial advice. Good luck and thanks for reading!
price action continues to stay inside bear flagJust a quick update. Still inside bearflag...probability favors a bearish breakout but best to wait and see what the outcome is as there have been many fake breakouts during this consolidation period. If it breaksdown the 2nd red vertical dotted line is the price target it wil hit, the first vertical redline is the price target were expected to hit becaue of the bearish breakdown from the privious bul flag. Because we have yet to reach that price that makes it seem all the more likely we will break bearishly out of this current flag which will lead to even mroe downside unless the 50MA can maintains tron support. Thanks for reading! *not financal advice*
Current Bullflag Grows Bigger Allows Potential For Bigger UpsideOn the rwecent 4 hour candle we can see thaat it has dipped down to test the T line a few times..even wicking below it once...whle for the most part the body of the candle is finding supprot right at the bottom green trendline of the current bull flag. The T line and the bottom trendline of the bull flag are close enough to eachother in proximity that they are somewhat acting as a team of double reinforced support. I still think this will likely be a bullish breakout considering we haven't yet hit the target of the descending purple wedge breakout...and now if it is a bullish breakout the added height to the flag would have our projected bullish price target surpass the original descending wedge target price. All very possible..However we need to strongly consider the alternative outcome of a bearish breakout which I have illustrated the projected target price of a bearish breakout too which would carry us back down to the buy sell line as likely support considering it is being double reinforced by the red fib retracement line. Both outcomes are possible so this idea will stay neutral but my bias is still to the upside so I think the bullish breakout has the highest probability and if not, on a bearish breakdown, I think once we hit the 50 SMA if it wouldrebounc pretty nicely and continue upward. Just my thoughts, not financial advice...I plan on laddering in at the dips.
After the latest bull flag breakout, BTC goes Super Saiyan!"IT''S OVER NINE THOUSAAAAAND!!!" Move over Goku there's a new Super Saiyan in town! As anticipated, btc broke bullishly out of another bull flag which should see the price action rise to the top of the dotted green trendline right where it meets the blue fib retracement line. From there we are less than $100 away from the purple descending wedges projected target line. Once we hit the blue fib line be cautious as we may see a bit of a bounce down as it will likely initially act as resistance a few times before it is flipped to support....another exciting development is that we are quickly approaching the 100SMA which we have not been above in awhile...the longer we can start to close candles above the 100SMA the sooner the 50SMA is once again above the 100SMA which always signals that the upside is the path of least resistance...once we once again have the 50 above the 100, and the 100 above the 200 fora fe closes we will have a very healthy bull market once again. Good to see btc going super saiyan again just in time for Q2. Also good to see the alt coin market picking up again...2 of the ones I mentioned a few ideas ago that I just added more to my position on(aragon and siacoin) had a very good day today so hopefully some of you may have seen those on my list and picked some up as well.