EURUSD Technical Long on mid-week Risk AversionNotes:
Technical markers on the chart, and are pretty straightforward.
Original idea is linked below as well as the original Long trade.
Aversion
CADJPY Bearish Probability | H&S PatternTechnical Analysis:
A small Head and Shoulders Pattern is evident on the chart. A break of 91.600 exposes the first target at 90.700.
93.00 has of late proved to be quite the Resistance Level as the pair failed to achieve a daily close above this handle with two notable failed attempts on the 9th and 12th of October daily candles.
It is important to note that this area of price rejection (~93.30) also happens to accommodate the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level (light blue on chart) drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. In addition, 92.60 flaunts the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. This level of Fibonacci confluence , that occurs in an area of structural resistance that has been relatively well-respected, increases the probabilities of a move lower, given the right conditions .
With no higher highs in place the pair is still in a downtrend, albeit ranging as it is sandwiched between the 93.00 Resistance and 91.600 Support as indicated in the chart. Therefore a break, close and price action/fundamental follow-through below 91.600 is what I'm timing and watching for. Stops at 92.00.
If the Weekly Candle closes as a bearish one, a noteworthy Evening Star will be in place. This is usually a Bearish Indicator.
Fundamental Analysis:
OIL Prices heavily influence the Canadian Dollar . The guys over at CFDTrading tackle the recent devaluation here . It's a short YouTube video.
Therefore recent OIL prices devaluation, Canada's seemingly recessive economy and risk aversion vibes (stronger JPY) are all factors that may contribute to a weaker CAD.
As much as Canadian economic data has been improving, there are still inconsistencies with the pattern. Some have been misses and some have been 'good'.
Key Risks:
The Bank of Japan is relatively more dovish than the Bank of Canada, this difference could work in favor of the CAD.
A rebound in OIL prices and/or Canadian Economic Data will see a correlative rise in the CAD.
CADJPY Short at Retracement, Risk Aversion & Rate Cut VibesUPDATE: Target 1 Hit. Profits Booked on First Position.
UPDATE 2: Target 2 Hit. Profits Booked on Second Position.
2 CADJPY Short Positions Triggered with a dip down below the 200 SMA on H1 TF.
Fundamentals
Recent OIL Prices Devaluation, Canada's Seemingly Recessive Economy and Risk Aversion Vibes are all factors that may contribute to a weaker CAD.
BoC is expected to cut rates this Wednesday.
Technical
Possible Evening Star on H4 in the Downtrend. This is after Rejection off of the 97.00 / 38.2 Fib of the current bear wave. Time will tell.
1st Target is 95.700 and 94.600 in extension.
USDJPY Short - Poor US Data Abounds, Risk Aversion Vibes Update 1:
SL was a little too tight. In reality SHort is still in play. SLs can't be moved on TradingView.
Update 2:
TP was hit at 121.423
Technical Factors:
I like the Tweezer Tops on H4.
The pair is currently trading below the 200,100 and 50 SMA. They are now dyniamic levels of Resistance.
H1 has a number of rejection candlesticks off 122.900 (current pivot); This is around middleground of the the 50%-61.8% Fib retracement level of the previous bear move from 123.700 to 121.830 .
Fundamental Factors:
US Jobs Data was poor. ISM data was poor today as well. Tomorrow's trade balance is also expected to be lower, according to Bloomberg analysts' survey. This may dampen positivity on early rate hike expectations.
Greece is potentially giving us a risk-off scenario that usually strengthens the JPY.
Targets
Price is below 122.900 Pivot and downside targets are preferred. Target is 121.400.
Stop is tight at 35 or so Pips.
Risks:
The USD's Safe Haven status may make it an attractive prospect as Grexit fears loom and US Stocks devalue (7th July Monday Intraday) thus it may rise as USD demand increases.
It is difficult to identify a true risk aversion scenario.
EURUSD Short in light of Greek woes; USD Safe Haven StatusMight be difficult to get this ball rolling with a smooth start but in the event of a proper channel breach (pictured) and a solid daily close below 1.100 , there's about 550 Pips on offer till the March low of 1.045 if risk aversion truly kicks in, coupled with a rapid devaluation of the EUR.
The EUR is currently a moderately risky asset to hold what with Greece uncertainties weighing down on the currency. The USD may prove to be a better safe haven over time, despite the temporary (citation needed) lull in economic data, more so the Jobs Figures.
Below the longer-term 1.081 Pivot, more bears may begin to check-in, otherwise this level is expected to act as a level of significant support.
Risks:
A continuation in poor/mediocre data prints from the US.
A credible, transparent and sustainable solution to the Greece fiasco that is taken as a positive to the EUR.
Incredibly good EUR data prints that reflects a sudden and robust pickup in economic growth in the Eurozone.
Some weirdly long pin-bar that is as a result of rapid buying of the EUR and then sudden selling which would take out stops at 1.200 in a spiky flash.
