$OKTA Gen AI tailwinds are not materializing as of now!- I'm a seller of NASDAQ:OKTA at $124 . Company was undervalued at 70s but has run so much without tangible materializing Gen AI tailwinds.
- Theoretically, Agentic AI should have been a great tailwind for SSO but it appears that industry is not yet focussed on security aspect of it when it comes to agentic AI.
- Even on application level, companies are struggling with developing orchestration framework and deploying them at Scale.
- Risk/Reward is not suitable for me to stay long. Short or Avoid/sell $OKTA.
- I might change my mind if they prove themselves today May 27, 2025.
Avoid
Mid life crisis @ $ABNB ; PT < $80- Valuation doesn't make sense on $ABNB.
- Market is too generous on $ABNB.
- NASDAQ:BKNG is defacto king when it comes to travel and booking. Market also reflects that by awarding NASDAQ:BKNG a whooping 180 billion market cap.
- NASDAQ:EXPE valuation is too cheap to ignore and revenue numbers are comparable to NASDAQ:ABNB and has market cap of 20 billion.
- Even if we give browny points for NASDAQ:ABNB it doesn't make sense to justify $80 billion market cap. NASDAQ:ABNB should at max be 40-45 Billion dollar company generously speaking.
- NASDAQ:ABNB fair value is < $80 bucks ideally close to $65
AVOID: $PEP Has a rich valuation for a low single digit growth! - Avoiding NASDAQ:PEP , Some people are saying it's undervalued. Please hold my beer.
- Company has almost saturated, Good days are behind us. Only way this company can grow is by raising prices which means price gouging and adjusting prices for inflation.
- Single digit EPS growth. Forward p/e an should be less than 10 for this stock to be attractive. Otherwise avoid this company as there are better investment opportunity in the market.
- Fundamentally.
Year 2025 2026 2027 2028
EPS. 7.92. 8.40 8.90 9.04
EPS % -2.71%. 6.02%. 5.93% 1.59%
Fair forward p/e for a low single digit EPS growth should be 10
Fair Stock Value:
Year 2025 2026 2027 2028
Stock price 89.2. 84 89 90
Some investor might be willing to pay more if economy tanks and money move into defensive stocks. In that case, investors might pay forward p/e of 15
Fair Stock Value:
Year 2025 2026 2027 2028
Stock price 118 126 133 135
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OR - Gold Streamer?I love streamers, but hate this one. Performance is lack luster to say the least. Franco-Nevada is the best and then maybe Sandstorm for the Canadian Markets. Questionable management team, and they are located in Quebec...... This is an awesome bull run for gold right now just broke 1400$! and the movement is lack luster. Also this company is involved with diamonds...... avoid unless really cheap and a very high gold price. Its chart looks horrendous.