ES Bull Flag Break to HigherES has shown great strength lately. We've had a bull flag break, retest of that full flag, into more demand. I think we'll see a measured move.
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10/17 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Last week saw the ES snapping its five-week losing streak. The catalyst? A recapturing of its core bull market trendline from October 2022 on the 6th, triggering a robust 187-point rally. Though the week ended on a lower note, it presented a tactical buying opportunity. ES is currently in a 3-day limbo, fluctuating between 4410 and 4355 since last Wednesday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: On the Rise
🌍 Europe: A Mixed Bag
🌎 US Index Futures: Plunging
🛢 Crude Oil: Slightly Higher
💵 Dollar: Mild Gains
🧐 Yields: Strong Upward Trend
🔮 Crypto: Taking a Hit
Major Global Catalysts
US to Ease Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil Industry
Middle East on the Cusp of Widespread Conflict
Key Structures
Some big-picture structures/notable levels from highest to lowest include 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, and 4314.
Support Levels
4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, 4314.
Resistance Levels
4408-10, 4418, 4424, 4433, 4439-42, 4450-55, 4462, 4471, 4478, 4484-88, 4496, 4504-08, 4515, 4526, 4532, and 4543.
Trading Plan
The goal for Tuesday is to trade level to level, one move at a time. If we break higher today, I am not a big fan of counter-trending, but for those who enjoy it, the 4439 zone would be one spot, as would be 4450-55. If 4366 fails, I would consider a breakdown short after at 4362. Level to level profit takes.
Wrap Up
In summary, we had a great rally yesterday, and now it's time to build a base. My general lean here is that ES can fill out the 4408 to 4366 range. This would then produce another leg up to 4418, 4439, then 4450+. If 4366 fails, we work down the levels, likely to 4325.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/16 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Week AheadRecap
This week started off with a statistically significant rally, with 4 green days in a row, totaling a 187 point rally from last Friday’s low to this week's high. This made it the largest 4-day green stretch of the year. After 5 red weeks in a row, ES managed to put in its first green week, marking a reversal week. However, after reaching major resistance, ES began a corrective leg last Thursday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
Major Global Catalysts
China’s central bank boots liquidity, leaves rates unchanged.
Key Structures
There are several key structures to note. The first is the 4477 backtest of the yellow triangle structure that we broke down on September 20th. The next is the 4418-24 backtest of the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping blue trendline connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 pivot is the backtest of the 9-month base we broke out on June 1st. Finally, the 4320-22 is the core bull market uptrend line.
Support Levels
4358-55, 4336, 4320-22, 4302, 4277, 4258, 4227, 4200-05. These are the levels that I would consider bidding direct.
Resistance Levels
4376, 4387-90, 4406-08, 4418-24, 4444-46, 4462, 4477, 4493-96, 4508. These are the levels where I would look for reactions short.
Trading Plan
For bulls, the big picture case is in play as long as we are above the core bull market trend at 4320-22. For bears, the case begins on the fail of 4320-22. I don't chase, so my goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. The best shorts are on bounces or backtests, not on chasing red.
Wrap Up
In conclusion, as long as 4355-58 keeps holding (4345 on any quick spikes down) I favor ES continues to fill out this new three-day range. If we continue selling deeper, 4320-22 is the absolute lowest bulls can see. A failure there puts a retest of 4250 in play.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
16102023 - #SPXOn Friday, I gave a long 4340 for a move to higher and a short 4380 for a move down () . Both trades would have worked out; though eventually, it was the bears who won. As mentioned in my NDX plan, should not have faded the bearish price action of Thursday; as in, probability of a bearish continuation is higher than that of a reversal back up. Weekly price action, however, to me, is still neutral to bullish (green weekly candle, and I have seen times when price just opened and go higher). Also, despite the bearish news over the weekend, market instead gap up instead of gap down. Thus Friday's down move could partly be due to options.
Overall IMO, price are above the zones (PZ and DBZ) and within the WBZ and MBZ. If anything, 4360 (previous strong support) would be the level to watch. IMO could see that level trade before market gives a rejection for a move lower, or, possibly, a recovery.
ES and SPX Trade Plan 10.13.23The primary level yesterday plan was 4430-4450 zone which was expected to be resistance for longer time frames as well as for the intraday session.
We could barely do any trading above this level and we traded down into 4400 even before the cash session opened for business. 4400-4410 has even an important level for past few sessions and I expected some support to come in here which was indeed the case as we saw about a 20 dollar rally from this level.
Eventually this level broke down, support became resistance and we traded down into 4350 in afternoon.
Scenarios for tomorrow
While I liked the action at 4430 as a longer term bear, I did not like the bounce from 4350.
For tomorrow’s session, both 4380 and 4350 could be important levels.....
Trade safe and Stay Frosty!
For more info on today Plan link below .
10/13 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Looking AheadRecap
Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been incredibly bullish, with four consecutive green days and a rally spanning 187 points from last Friday's low to yesterday's high. The trigger for this rally was ES reclaiming its 11-month bull market trendline last Friday at ~4315.
A key development was the rising wedge pattern that formed and broke down on the 4-hour chart. This bearish pattern indicates increasing momentum to the upside within a narrowing range and decreasing volume, signaling a reversal when the uptrend line is broken. The breakdown from this wedge contributed to yesterday's selloff.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
Inflation fears are still in sight, as Thursday’s data showed an uptick
Israel calls for evacuation of Gaza within 24 hours
Banks kicked off earnings this morning, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topping expectations.
Key Structures
Several key structures were notable in yesterday's trading. At 4438, we see a backtest to the wedge structure on the daily chart that we broke down on September 26th. The 4416-18 level backtests the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low, a key breakdown area. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping orange channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows, a key support level.
Support Levels
4377, 4367 (major), 4360, 4352 (major), 4345, 4336 (major), 4318-22 (major), 4302 (major), 4296, 4278-80 (major), 4268, 4255 (major), 4237, 4226 (major), 4214, 4200-05 (major), 4190, 4179 (major), 4160-62 (major), 4153.
Resistance Levels
4387-90 (major) 4399 (major), 4408, 4416-18 (major), 4425, 4436-39 (major), 4449, 4453, 4462 (major), 4468, 4473-76 (major), 4488, 4496 (major), 4507, 4515, 4523-25 (major), 4532, 4537, 4542 (major).
Trading Plan
For bulls, the plan is to see the late day attempted failed breakdown continue to hold. As long as the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold, a path higher could develop. For bears, the case begins on the failure of 4366. The goal is to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Yesterday was a volatile session, with bulls putting in a failed breakdown setup late in the day. This could lead to a tradeable bounce today, with a potential path higher if the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold. If 4366 fails, we may see a further retracement.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Dissecting SPY Price trends With Fibonacci Price TheoryHave you ever wanted to learn the one technique you can use on any chart, any interval, or any technical or price set up to help you become a better trader?
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Price is always seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
You'll hear others talking about price filling voids or moving through accumulation/distribution phases - which is all true. Price moves through these support/resistance levels or quickly through price voids to reach new highs or lows. This is all part of Fibonacci Price Theory.
When you learn to understand various intervals using this technique (Weekly, Daily, 30 Min, or others), you'll quickly be able to identify short-term, long-term, and intra-day trends like a pro.
It is not about catching every trend reversal/setup. This technique is about teaching you to stay on the right side of trend and to target the Sweet Spot in the middle of breakaway/breakdown trends.
Follow my research. Learn how I can help you become a better trader.
Market to suck in die-hard bulls before abrupt reversal?Finally, the SPX rebounded to the level we initially expected it to reach (outlined last Friday). This move was accompanied by a bullish reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a continuation higher, we want to see these indicators continue to develop bullish structures. However, to support a thesis that this is merely a correction of a prolonged downtrend that began in late July 2023, we would want to see RSI peak below 70 points (which is very common for downtrend corrections). In addition to that, we would like to see MACD fail to break above the midpoint.
As for our stance, we continue to wait on the sidelines (for short re-entry if the situation develops as expected). However, at the moment, we still do not feel comfortable to take action. The SPX might continue higher, potentially to the level where it sucks in bulls who start predicting new all-time highs and soft landing, just before an abrupt reversal. If we were to think of such a level, it would be somewhere near $4,450 (coinciding with the breakout above the sloping resistance). Though this is, of course, only a speculation at this point. It is not warranted the market will rebound as high (especially as yesterday’s candle looks somewhat exhausted). Therefore, for minor clues, we will pay close attention to the price’s ability to hold above the 20-day SMA and Resistance 1; a failure to stay above these levels will raise our suspicion and potentially signal a loss of upside momentum.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as a support. If the price fails to hold above this level, it will be slightly bearish and raise our suspicion.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
10/12 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Looking AheadRecap
In the past few days, the SPX has seen a massive uptrend, with Friday marking the single largest range green day of 2023. This was followed by two more rally days on Monday and Tuesday. As predicted, we saw a pullback and consolidation yesterday, with a dip mid-day to 4377. However, this was bought with force, indicating the strength of the bulls.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Mixed
🔮 Crypto: Down
Major Global Catalysts
Inflation prints down slightly from last month but very slightly higher than expectations.
Key Structures
The price action has several notable structures and levels. At 4438, we see a backtest to the orange wedge structure that we broke down on September 26th. The 4418-24 zone is an important breakdown area that we fell through thereafter. The 4377 level is the downsloping yellow channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 level remains a major pivot and the 4316 level is the core bull market uptrend line.
Support Levels
4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4378-80 (major), 4366 (major), 4353, 4347 (major), 4336, 4322, 4316 (major), 4302, 4284 (major), 4274, 4255 (major), 4242, 4236, 4227 (major), 4217, 4213, 4200-05 (major), 4190 (major), 4178, 4163 (major).
Resistance Levels
4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439-42 (major), 4453, 4462 (major), 4473 (major), 4488, 4497 (major), 4507, 4515-20 (major), 4533, 4542 (major), 4549, 4556-61 (major), 4575 (major).
Trading Plan
The bulls are in control. Trade accordingly.
Wrap Up
In summary, the bulls are firmly in control as long as we stay above the 4316 core uptrend line. A loose guess would be that if we can continue holding the above-mentioned supports, we could continue higher to 4439-42, 4462, then 4472.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
10/11 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Looking AheadRecap
In the past week, we saw a significant technical shift with ES reclaiming the 4310 level, its core bull market trendline from October 2022. This put the bulls back in control and corresponded with the start of bullish October seasonality. The week had straightforward trading, with the market pulling back to the 4310 level before triggering a two-day rally of over 100 points. The rally was driven by the confluence of a failed breakdown on Friday and the reclaiming of the year-long trendline.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
Major Global Catalysts
IMF projects soft landing for global economy.
Key Structures
The market is currently +175 points from Friday’s low, without a minor retracement. Key structures to note are 4472, 4418-24, 4377, 4336, and 4315. These structures are not comprehensive but are major ones to take note of.
Support Levels
4389-93 (major), 4377-80, 4366-63 (major), 4347, 4336-38 (major), 4322, 4315 (major), 4302, 4289, 4276-78, 4268, 4258, 4250-54 (major), 4235, 4228 (major), 4220, 4213, 4200-05 (major), 4190 (major), 4177, 4163-65 (major).
Resistance Levels
4404, 4418-24 (major), 4436, 4438-42 (major), 4457, 4473-75 (major), 4488, 4496-4500 (major), 4507, 4515 (major), 4526, 4531 (major), 4537, 4543 (major), 4549, 4556 (major).
Trading Plan
For today, I anticipate a period of messy, tactical, level-to-level consolidation/pullback. While a 3rd large uptrend day is possible, it's becoming less likely. I will be looking to give price a day or two to show some price discovery and build structure for its next leg. The first notable support on the downside is 4366-63. If we get down there, I’d consider bidding. One could also try the 4377-80.
Wrap Up
In summary, the past few days have seen clean, A+ uptrend, and traders have been very spoiled. Today, I anticipate a pullback and consolidation to work off the recent rally. Ideally, this would be something like 4377 or 4366 lowest. From there we can continue back to 4418-24, and break there starts the next leg to 4472, which remains the magnet.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
10/10 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Looking AheadRecap
Friday was a significant day for the ES, with it reclaiming its core bull market rising trendline from the October 2022 lows at ~4310. This week began with a significant gap down due to weekend headline catalyst out of the middle east. However, the action at the open demonstrated just how powerful simple technicals remain even in the face of geopolitical headline risk.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up but Mainland China down
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
Israel promises all out war against Gaza.
IMF raises US growth forecast.
Key Structures
The core rising trendline from October 2022's low is of utmost importance. The market agrees - Last Tuesday, it finally failed after 3 tests in the prior week causing a deep flush to 4235. Last Thursday, we backtested the line twice from below and rejected. Last Friday, it finally reclaimed, causing a monster short squeeze and putting bulls back in the drivers seat.
Support Levels
4366, 4348 (major), 4336 (major), 4323, 4310-15 (major), 4302, 4291 (major), 4278, 4268, 4254, 4247 (major), 4238, 4225-30 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4195, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major)
Resistance Levels
4375-80 (major), 4388, 4400 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4446, 4458, 4472 (major), 4488, 4497, 4507 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4530, 4542 (major), 4550, 4556 (major).
Trading Plan
The bulls are back in control as long as 4310-15 holds. Ideally for bulls though, ES could build a new consolidation range, between something like 4375-80 and 4336 and play ping pong in this range. For the bears, 4310-15 needs to fail for any proper bear case and fail there would start the leg to 4278 then 4247. Shorter term, 4336 fail would also likely present a good short.
Wrap Up
After two weeks of relentless selling, ES has reclaimed its core bull market trendline and held it yesterday, squeezing massively. The question now is whether there will be more follow-through. The key level to watch is 4310 - as long as this holds, the bulls are in control. However, a break below this level could signal a new leg down.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/9 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Looking AheadRecap
Last Friday, we witnessed a bullish breakout in ES. The movement was anticipated and played out well, running over 100 points from the day's low right to the final target of 4348 and beyond. The ES reclaimed its core bull market trendline from October 2022, which was necessary to set a low.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down but stable
🛢 Crude Oil: Up very strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Closed for Columbus Day
🔮 Crypto: Down
Major Global Catalysts
Israel-Gaza war raises global tensions amid knee-jerk reaction from financial markets.
Key Structures
Zooming out, ES accomplished a couple of things last Friday: It put in a failed breakdown and reclaimed its core trendline from October 2022. This means for next week, bulls firmly control as long as we are above the 4310 (4295 absolute lowest) zone.
Support Levels
4348 (major), 4336, 4322-25 (major), 4310-08 (major), 4295, 4290, 4278-80 (major), 4265, 4254, 4245 (major), 4227-29 (major), 4213-16, 4205 (major).
Resistance Levels
4348 (major), 4358, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4388, 4400-05 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4438 (major), 4448, 4455, 4463 (major), 4472 (major).
Trading Plan
For today, I will be sitting back and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though. If we get a good tradeable bounce at 4310-13 though, followed by acceptance of the zone, something like 4304 may represent a higher risk breakdown entry trade.
Wrap Up
Bulls stepped in on cue last Friday reclaiming the core rising trendline from 2022s low. Predictability after a large move like this is very low, and I will be sitting back today and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
SPX Weekly Outlook ending Oct 13We have one large gap above and 2 gaps below. As usual, 4300 and 4200 are the whole number support.
Above 4325; we can go for the gap fill to 4400-4405. Over 4405 is 4465
Below 4300 is 4200 and then 4150 then 4100.
Remember, the JPM collar is calling for 4500 above and then 4050 below.
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 10.01 - 10.06Level :
Current Balance 4378.50 - 4321.50
Resistance 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Targets if accept over 4389.75 - 92.25 Area to accept over for continuation to VAL
Support 4327.25 - 21.50 Key Support 4310 - 07.25
Targets if can get through HTF Support 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 Would need to accept under for any continuation towards the GAP under 4250.
Last Week :
Marked opened and consolidated around the Edge area with a test and fail over it which gave us a nice move towards lower targets for the week filling Contract Roll Gap and testing HTF Key Support top which provided a nice bid and pushed the market back into the Contract Roll Gap area which was market off as potential place to either bounce or find Support at and so far we have built up inside it and failed to take it out again on Friday.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week, we have made a big move lower since the start of the move from week 9.17 - 9.22, we had balance extension x 4 to get here and so far looks like might have found new Current Balance maybe at least for short term to do some cleaning ? It is a start of a new month and we do have market moving data and events this week so we will have to see if we actually stay in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 Balance or not. I would think we could at least hold within until mid week or so to build up some more structure to show us the way.
If Balance :
We are looking to spend some time in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 area and trade with in our Resistance areas are 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75
Support in this 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 areas ? Would need to accept Over/Under Key Resistance / Current Support areas to try and move out of balance.
For More Downside :
To see more downside ideally we would want to build up more over 4327 - 21 and then get a break / continuation towards Key Support at 4310 - 07.25 area which would be the spot to watch for more continuation and we could target HTF Support high and possibly low with targets at 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 this would be spot to get through to try and target lower Gap area under 4250. We would need either more supply build up or selling volume to get us to those areas this week. If heavy volume could see 4240 - 30 - 20s area.
For Upside :
To see upside from here we would want to build up in this range and start taking out Resistance areas to make a run at the Edge and 4378.50 - 74.75 would be Key Resistance to watch acceptance over to be able to target 4392.25 and VAL area above. We would need either a strong bid or run out of selling above 4370s in order to try and continue higher this week.
S&P500 on the way to the projected levelHere we are, seeing the projection I posted on my site and here becoming reality.
P4 was slightly above the Center-Line.
How price is falling through it.
Next Target is P5.
Either the Warning-Line, or the Lower-Medianline-Parallel.
In between I expect a bounce up to the Centerline.
Also, keep in mind that we could get a HAGOPIAN!
That means, if price is not reaching the L-MLH, and pulling back above the CL, then possibilities are up for a huge move to the North.
I took partial profits as shown in my last video on YT today. The rest is riding down to one of the targets.
Steak & Lobster Baby! §8-)
Wish you all a happy day.
10/6 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap
Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high of day.
Key Structures
4377-80: The downsloping channel is connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows.
4336: A major pivot that connects the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs.
4308: The core bull market uptrend line in green.
4254-58, then 4227-31: Major levels below 4308.
4212-05: A critical level below 4227.
Support Levels
4290, 4279-83 (major), 4269, 4254-58 (major), 4242, 4227-30 (major), 4212 (major), 4206, 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4154 (major), 4144, 4133, 4127 (major), 4109 (major), 4100, 4093, 4075-80 (major).
Resistance Levels
4296 (major), 4308 (major), 4314, 4320 (major), 4336, 4348 (major), 4355, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4386, 4400, 4411, 4418, 4425 (major), 4439, 4450 (major), 4460, 4467, 4473 (major), 4480, 4496, 4507 (major), 4513 (major).
Trading Plan
The bullish setup here is that this entire range between 4296 and 4258 or so is a large consolidation to set up a fresh trend leg higher.
The bear case would be that the stubborn 4254-58 needs to fail for there to be any true bear case. My goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Today, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which adds a massive “wild card” to the price. My general lean though is that 4296-54 is a range to set up a move higher. This new leg should target 4320, 4336 then 4348 at least. Should 4254 fail though, then ES probably needs a new low and I would expect it to tag 4230 at least. There is high uncertainty here, and I’ll be reacting as per the above plan.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
10/5 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap
Yesterday played out almost perfectly in ES. We had a big short squeeze after a final overnight flush, confirming our plan from the previous day. The final flush hit the 4230s, it defended, and then we saw a large squeeze to the 4304-08 final target. Today, we backtested the big multi-month support zone and ES put in a good green day with a large wick. The question now is whether the bulls can manage a second consecutive green day.
Key Structures
4336 remains a major pivot and a battleground zone/magnet.
4308-13 is the core bull market uptrend line. It failed yesterday after 3 tests, and is now the new bull/bear line.
4254-58 and 4227-31 are major levels below there.
Support Levels
4287-91 (major), 4278, 4269 (major), 4254-58 (major), 4240, 4227-30 (major), 4220, 4212, 4205 (major), 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4153 (major), 4146, 4135, 4128 (major).
Resistance Levels
4308-13 (major), 4322, 4335, 4349-54 (major), 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4385, 4400, 4418, 4424 (major), 4433, 4440 (major), 4453, 4460, 4470-73 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case: Bulls will need to defend supports on any dip off this zone. Ideally, this would be 4290ish, with 4267 being lowest. Below there, it is probably we need another leg down to a new low at 4230 before any sustained low can be set.
Bear case: In order to see new lows tomorrow, 4354-58 must fail. A few options to trade this - one could front run it by trading the fail of 4269. The alt is waiting for 4254 to fail and shorting at 4252 or so. Target is 4230.
Wrap Up
We are at a major decision point now and the price discovery here overnight and tomorrow will be key. My general lean if I had to provide one is that ES can go for green day #2 tomorrow. This will likely start with a dip first though, and bulls will need to defend that 4269 lowest. Next targets up are 4313, 4322, then back to the big 4336 level. If 4269 fails, its a warning that we need a new low. React, don’t predict.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck!
JHart @ LionHart Trading
Midweek Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The past week saw multiple failed breakdowns in the S&P futures market, with each day since last Wednesday offering actionable trading opportunities. Yesterday's traditional failed breakdown, following a significant low and substantial sell-off, resulted in a rally to 4335. However, the subsequent sell-off highlights the importance of level to level profit taking. The same setup triggered again at the close yesterday, offering two fine entry points before invalidation.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle which commenced the sell-off on September 20th remains a key feature. The downtrend line connecting the June 26th low with the August 18th low is a major victory for bulls. The most important level/pivot is 4336, which connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The core bull market uptrend line, shown in red, is now a “must hold” to keep any further relief rally in play.
Support Levels
4254-58, 4227-30, 4206, 4190, 4165, 4127, 4111, 4087-91, 4075.
Resistance Levels
4290, 4308-04, 4336, 4350-55, 4380, 4400, 4418-24, 4448, 4472, 4496-4500.
Trading Plan
The bull case tomorrow hinges on the trendline at 4308 reclaiming, which should set the seasonal bottom. If ES defends 4230 on any further selling and heads back to 4290, 4308, this could signal the bottom. For a more direct bull case from the 4254-58 level, a test of 4254 in the morning followed by a spike back into the high 4250s could indicate a move up to the 4290, 4308 backtest.
The bear case, which remains the default, would involve ES continuing lower to 4227-30, ideally with overnight relief bounces not exceeding 4280. For those looking to add on shorts, the key is not to chase. The best shorts are on bounces, and a fail of 4254 tomorrow morning could trigger a move down.
Wrap Up
After today's big move, predicting the market's next move is challenging. The focus should be on reacting as per the plan. Bears could potentially defend 4269, 4280 max overnight and see another leg down into 4241, 4230-27 before a bounce. However, traders should be mindful of short squeeze risk.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
S&P500 - Here is why I see the S&P500 will tank.Oh my, I feel like a super Bear.
Every Chart I see is creating a short setup.
The S&P500 opened and close outside of the green L-MLH a second time.
Chances that it will run up to test/retest it again are given by nature. But nobody can tell.
So, I opened a small short position and I will track it closely.
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles.
The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately.
The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong.
My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393).
I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next.
Follow my research.
9/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
The action since Wednesday was further evidence of just how powerful simple technical analysis can be. Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1 year old trendline support, showing the power of the bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 lows, with the March 2023 lows. This trendline was tested on Wednesday and resulted in a large bullish daily hammer candle at support, followed by a continued upward trend on Thursday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up, Hong Kong up very strongly, mainland China close for a week
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
PCE reports comes in lighter than expected.
US government shutdown looms.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into melt-down. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4385 now to set a “sustained bottom”. This is far away now, but still worth remembering if we get a sustained, multi-day relief rally.
Support Levels
4335 (major), 4322-25, 4313, 4308 (major), 4297 (major), 4280, 4270, 4260-62 (major), 4250, 4245, 4232-36 (major), 4220, 4212 (major), 4208 (major), 4198, 4190 (major), 4170-75 (major - this is a wider zone), 4156, 4150 (major), 4125 (major).
Resistance Levels
4351 (major), 4366, 4372, 4382 (major), 4385, 4391, 4400-4405(major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4432, 4439 (major), 4446, 4460, 4468 (major), 4476, 4485-90 (major), 4496.
Trading Plan
The bull case would look something like base more then head up the levels to 4372-82, dip there, then push higher to 4k, 4424, then ultimately 4468. The big bear case only begins when 4297 fails. I don’t chase and I very obviously would not short the fail there after a 50-point sell. If we test 4297 though, put in a tradeable bounce, then build a nice base, I’d be short 4289 for a move lower down the levels. It could be a very deep one.
Wrap Up
Bulls put in their latest shot at a relief rally, this time at a very significant, 11 month long support. All other attempts have failed after a day. My general lean is bulls can try a little higher and the bounce is in play as long as 4297 keeps hold. This would look something like base/correct more, then push up the levels to 4366, 4372, 4382, then dip again. Ideally, bulls can hold 4335 or 4322 on any dips today. 4297 fails, we start the next deep leg lower.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.24-9.29Levels to Watch -
Resistance : 4378.50 - 74.75 Key Resistance : 4403 - 4392.25
Acceptance in VAL would be needed to regain strength.
Support : 4362.75 - 59.50 - 55 Area maybe ? -
Market is looking for good Support if can't say within/over the Edge then could target a move towards lower Contract Roll Gap with levels to watch on the way for Targets : 4349.50 - 40.75 - 31.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 - 08.50 ?
Depending on how much selling we get if any and if things get real ugly and we can fully fill the lower Contract Gap then we have HTF Key Support at 4291.50-4265.50 spot that started this whole move and a large Cost Basis.
Last Week :
Last week Market opened and held under 4508 - 02 Resistance area which gave us a break of Key Support and VAH which brought in more selling to take out Swing Stops at the mean and hit all of the lower targets down towards 4375.75 - 59.50 Edge. Friday first gave us a hold and push away from the edge back towards VAL but failed to get over the needed area and instead broke and close under/around the Edge low.
This Week :
Market is set to open in an interesting spot and around untested from Contract Roll Gap which started this whole move areas. Longs have been getting trapped higher and higher and Supply have been moving lower for some time now and question this week is Do we have enough Supply or Larger Time Frame Sellers to continue and fill the contract roll gap and maybe even try to get inside Key Support ?
Or do we get enough short covering here to hold the market up Around this Edge/VAL areas to start consolidating to try and get back inside Value ? If Covering is strong enough but Supply will still be coming out then we could also drift lower in tighter range days from here unless selling will be strong enough.
For the Downside :
If Market can't stay inside the Edge and get back over 78.50 - 74.75 Resistance / hold over then we could see more selling. We would need to get under 62.75 - 59.50 to targets 49.50 - 45 Which would be an area to watch for any continuation, if we get through and hold under 49.50 we could see continuation towards 30s - 20s with 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 Being potential area for a hold or bounce on first pushes so would have to be careful around these lower areas as there could be good buying order flow around BUT with the way chart is looking and if we still have volume Supply coming out we could easily keep going since size longs would first want to see market hold before putting together positions and any strength right now could just be size short covering at targets and then continuing to look for buyers. 4308.25 - 4291.50 Is another Spot to watch if we get down there.
For the Upside :
For market to reverse long from here we would have to hold over 4349.50 - 62.75 to test Resistance at 78.50-74.75 Would need to see strength and hold over to target Key Resistance and VAL area which would be the spot to watch for any continuation this week, market would need to accept in VAL to regain strength again, other than that longs might be better from lower potential Supports if they show strength.
If Balance :
We are around a Key Larger Time Frame Area and if selling wont be as strong here and we still have covering/buying then we could see ourself tighten up ranges and maybe even balance in this 4350 - 80 +/- areas until we build up enough to attempt a move towards VAL or continue lower. Need to be careful around here unless we can continue under 59-45 or 80-92
