TLTGimme gimme .. haven't posted on Tradingview in a while so now want to give heads up go long TLT very soon with dated calls or shares. possibly even 103 lvl
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SPY/NQ Short-Squeeze Setting Up Nicely.Are you following my research yet?
Last weekend, I published a YouTube video suggesting the NASDAQ/TECH were poised for a 15~20% rally - driving the SPY 7 to 9% higher.
Now, my SPY Cycle Patterns called today as a Pullback and tomorrow as a Momentum Rally.
Get ready for a massive SHORT-SQUEEZE over the next few weeks. April will start off with the Nasdaq/SPY targeting higher peaks.
Follow my research.
Taking another shotSell: 4010 or higher
Stop: 4035
Notes : second sell attempt based on the model
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
SP500, All you need to know.S&P500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I share my opinion on the current situation with the stock market. Plus, a lot of tips have been shared that you might want to add them to your trading skills.
Trade safely.
Trader Leo.
ES - Upside Breakout Underway? Observational at this point... "Prepare for the Unexpected" fits this thesis.
Are we breaking out to the upside? Time and price are ripe for a move out of this 5 month long pattern I am labeling the "a & b" of a higher order "B" leg with the "c" leg up to follow.
Notice the price pattern in the two white boxes...see how they touched the channel line, backed off, broke through, tested them on the retrace then sharply moved up. The fractals in both of these instances are typical of initiating bullish waves. They are more often than not very erratic, chaos laden time periods. Direction does not become clear until there is a clear breakaway from the price structure. Are we currently experiencing one of those events?
My expectation for months (See link below dated 2/4/23) has been that we would need to exceed the Aug '22 highs to complete the longer term corrective pattern and ameliorate the oversold condition in the overall market and specifically the NAS100 stocks. Basically luring retail participation back into the market before the next serious leg down.
Weekly ES chart dressed in Spring colors for longer term picture of what this COULD look like...
ES/SPX - What lies ahead...What is the near/longer term direction of the market?
Here's my take
I believe we are and will be in a "trader's market for the foreseeable future. This can be an excellent environment to make make in provided you manage risk by picking your entries judiciously.
From an Elliot wave perspective I think we are at an important fib level in the context of the current corrective wave as I see it.
I believe we have reached the peak of the b wave subdivision of b. This level is at the .618 fib level of the larger channel that we are in. From a risk perspective I think we can use the Groundhog's Day high or one marginal new high with a firm rejection as a stop point for this proposed scenario as laid out in the chart.
I am bullish on an intermediate term basis with one more sizeable sell-off that will set us up for a nice bull move to the ES 4500 area.
Good trading to you.
Weekly Update: Are we headed towards my Target Box Today?Today's price action will be crucial as to whether or not we head directly into my target box. My past posts have provided enough context. The sweet spot to target is 3772.
Daily Trade Plan In case daily targets are achieved, please follow targets from weekly plan.
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
#ES_F 3.22.23 Day Trading PrepFED Day!
Market might be gearing up for a big move today, on a bigger timeframe we found our top, found or low and now back to the middle of the range. Yesterday showed us that we still have buyers but most of the buyers right now are large short covering and momentum longs from Daily Support which puts us in interesting spot. Currently over 4012-3990 Daily Support inside Previous Days Range and looks like accepted in a bigger 4100-4000 range which to me says possibility that we push higher before or on the Fed BUT I also think that is a spot where we can find size sellers as well and if we will have Supply this thing is not held up by much Support IF 4012-3890 breaks and take out 3976-71 thing could get ugly to the downside with lower Daily Support to watch at 3915-3890 and if things get ugly to 3800-3790 but that only happens I think IF we do make a push towards 4084-4100 and cant hold/reverse. Currently we are in this 4046-4000 range if we can hold 4030-25 possibly move towards that 4061-46 area and then we can watching if we can continue out of it before the fed or not and if we fail to hold 4030-25 could head for our lower support.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77 Current 4046-42 For Continuation Higher 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3980 // 3915-3890 // 3810-3790 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 3994-90 // 3976-71 Current 4030-25 ?
Weekly Plan Update. ES Futures June03/22/2023
==========================
03/20 Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
Now trading at 4033
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,963.75
2. Weekly pivot at 3,950
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. OTFU in daily timeframe, ends at 3932.5.
2. OTFD in weekly timeframe; ends at 3999.
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
Intraday ES 22nd March - Gamma + Options + Darkpool analysisGEX: Positive
Price above Gamma Flip Point - decreased Volatility
Structure of Gamma: Mostly negative, spread across multiple strikes
Expected Range: 3991 - 4077
Most probable end-of-day outcome: Price close above most negative gamma spikes (3990, 3940, 3840). Therefore Key Support is at 3940.
Gamma Spikes chart from my AI Data Analysis software
Yesterday's session was skyrocketing and honestly despite observing incoming Supply to the market near Resistance, price reacted weak to this area and after couple of hours continued to increase. As the result, we fulfilled most probable end-of-day outcome, but plan wasn't met accordingly to my expectations. Well, this is market magic 🙂
For today's session, we have similar expected end-of-day outcome where Support at 3940 is below bottom level of expected trading range at 3991. In general, on 3990 we see gamma spike, so this level works as significant support too. After climbing up, any supports are much lower than level of current price so seems the market can start shifting into Bullish sentiment. It's too early to confirm that, but something is happening. Let's keep observing.
From Resistance perspective, we have spike at 4040. Plan for today's trades I marked on second chart attached to analysis. Good luck!
S&P 500 Index Long The banking failures and constant layoffs happening in real time I believe will impact the Fed and Higher rates and recession may be imminent. We have been breaking structure to the upside and I am looking for a retrace between 3955.00 and 3980.00 with the first target at the 4027.1 level. Currently bullish until the market specifies a break of structure below the 3923.00 level.
SPY/SPX analysis and what you can expect(I think)I am a firm believe price is heading to the upside but it is up to you and your ideas in the end. It's just what I think, with lots of liquidity resting above the market will pull to the upside.
Careful being long the market here. Dual Fibo Resistance!Dual Fibo resistance not only from top to down on the NQ futures but also on a bigger time frame from ATH and COVID lows. Perfect exit/Entry. CME_MINI:NQ1!
Weekly Plan Update03/20Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
Now trading at 3,975
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,963.75
2. Weekly pivot at 3,950
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. OTFU in daily timeframe, ends at 3932.5.
2. OTFD in weekly timeframe; ends at 3999.
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
3/20 Monday Spy (C&H on the hour) We made a bullish cup and handle pattern on the hour today. Heading back up trading still in our channel of 389-400. Guessing we do puts tomorrow as we go down the channel.
#ES_F Idea for today? Lets see if this can get going we take out VWAP. Came in late today after two days off, watching this to play out IF we can get under 3976-71 and take out 57-53
SPY Temporary Upside before the Drop.Crazy how the PA accurately lines up with my previous TA's.
You can see $SPY retesting the TL resistance so I expect some short-term bullishness, and ideally it'll chop upwards as $VIX cools down too.
Remember things can shift and there is LARGER downside potential.
Weekly Update: Will Targets Get Hit?Since I started posting on TradingView.com once per week, I have been warning my readers of softness into the 3800 -3720 area target box. Today, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Really, my only question is when, and then what happens next?
I have a purple pathway down to the low 3000’s and as of now that remains an alternative. With the loss of positive divergences on the hourly I do believe eventually we get into my target box. From there I look to constructive patterns developing.
So far nothing has changed…how we get there is up for discussion.
Best to all,
Chris
#ES_F 3.15.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.14.23 Review : We were looking for possible lower continuation but market had other plans, as we noted IF 3892-87 holds and we can get over 3932-27 we can see a push into upper Supply area, I didnt see it pushing that much in but what we did is we took it, held over it and then rejected from next Key area which was even better. If long to supply was missed there was a nice trade from 3976-71 -57-53 back towards the value at 3932-27 which we broke into but got short covering end of day back into Resistance.
Wednesday 3.15.23 Prep : Globex opened in the 3957-44 Supply area, we pushed above sold into the stop run and dropped the bid. Once we broke 3944-40 and broke inside 3931-3892 we went straight to the bottom which is telling us not that much support there, all of our buyers are under 3870. We now have short covering here at the bottom of Daily Support, things are looking like we could at least continue towards our 3866-47 target and possibly a break below? We are under Previous Day Range but inside T2 range, IF we fail to get back inside Previous Days range and hold under 3892-87 that might give us the move lower and if we can break 3853-47 T2 low and 3839-35 would be our targets, if selling is strong we can continue lower our next Daily Support is 3809-3787 we can see buyers around there or before. IF we end up holding 3878-74 // 3866-63 we could see a move back over 3892-87 where we can target Previous Day low and then watch if we accept back in it to continue higher towards Supply but for now Supply is above us and buyers are under 3870-50-30
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3932-27 // 3944-40 Current 3901-3898 3892-87?
Support : Key Daily 3866-3847 Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05
#ES_F 3.14.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.13.23 Review : We got a break of structure and 3892-87 level before RTH and got the flush to one of our possible Support targets at 3866-47, RTH order flow came in and and pushed us back in balance above, over all a great day we tagged Support target and hit Key Intraday Resistance at 3932-27 which gave another good short for the day back towards 3892-87.
Tuesday 3.14.23 Prep : We are currently Inside T2 Range, inside Previous Day Range and right around our Daily Support of 3915-3890 which we already broke multiple times. Currently our balance is 3932-3890 and we are waiting to see if we will make a move out today and continue lower or reverse/stay in balance? T2 and Previous Day buyers might have been just short covering and not real buying which means if more supply comes in today the lower levels wont hold... We are watching 3892-87 as our Key Support for continuation lower if we break and hold under we can see a move down towards our lower Support and Previous Day Low, IF that breaks (3853-47) We watch for possible continuation from there, our next Daily Support area is at 3809-3787 depending how much Supply we have we might find more short covering before next Daily Support as but if we have enough our bid is under 3800 which another area of buyers at 3776-60. If we do hold 3892-87 Today we watch if we will trade within this balance and possibly make a run at upper Supply area at 3953-40 but we must take out 3932-27 and hold 3915-10 for that to happen if not we can rotate lower. Data coming 8:30 today, might be good wait until it shows clear direction or until things settle down.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 // 3988-76 Key Intraday 3932-27 // 3944-40 // 3976-71
Support : Key Daily 3914-3890 // 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3892-87 // 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3809-05 Current 3900
⚠️ 🔥 Red Alert - S&P at thin Support Banks running in trouble, the FEDS want to hike but not sure if they can and S&P500 is attemtping to enter back into the previous descending channel.
This support now is becoming thinner as a rebound is not happening. thus i see a danger for 3700 or even 3400-3200 which would be a massive blow for the markets.
We will be awaiting for the CPI inflation to be released tomorrow as well as the news on the banks. US can easily find solution for 1-2 banks (even top-20 ones) but if the crisis escalates we could be up for negative surprises. Check my posts today on that matter.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Ps. I like buying Bitcoin these days:
