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ES stopped at its bull trendlineLook where it stopped, loosing 3985 will be very bearish going into tomorrow. Im looking for a long trade, ideally we make a higher low tonight. The pathway for tomorrow can be a gap up and then sell into Wednesday or Thursday Very important to watch that trendline holing and if broken, there will be a perfect short setup when it retests that trendline from the bottom. If it wont re-test the thredline from the bottom (again if broken down), then it will be very bearish! Im thinking we will see The whole Powell speech erased, support is at 3940-50ES for the whole move down. Lets see if the price can get there tomorrow, it will be a good long entry for a 40-50 points move up Also I have a great confidence that the whole CPI move will be erased at some point, will it be end of this year or Jan, I dont know at this moment. 15th is the Panic Cycle Day, also 1 day before OPEX. Best scenario is we bottom after CPI and rally into Last week of Dec As of now, I see a trading cycle turn bearish, so short the rips will be the game for me.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
5
Evening Update: Are we on the precipitous?This morning I posted when SPX Futures price was in the 4070 region...I was expecting price to come into the 4040-4020 region for a minor wave ii. You want the truth? Forecasting markets is difficult. If a caveman could do it (Geico Ad Reference) than there would be no money attached to it. I have tried to educate my followers in the same vein as I am. I analyze patterns across my coverage list and look for opportunities... that is my job . That encompasses 90% of my time. I trade the other 10%. What I end up trading...is the high probability. Why? Because my job is to manufacture money out of thin air. Profits do not find a home to someone's bank account because their passionate. Profits do not find a home to someone's bank account because their confident. They find a home in your bank account because your right. Right...when most others were wrong. My followers knew I was flat, having just pocketed 80 ES points. Just after the lunch time EST time I posted a trade alert: Long ES at 3985.50. Now, I have not filled yet. ES came within 2 points of my limit order. BUT HERE'S THE POINT OF THIS DIATRIBE. Do the work...first and foremost (90% of the time analyzing)...when opportunities arise...as they do all the time...then trade. Not before. For tonight, I have a limit in for 1 ES contract at 3985.50 and my stop is 3975. I'm giving it some room. I still think we're not done to the upside. Below 3975 and I'm then leaning towards we've topped. I want to be clear about my plan because this is final hurrah for 2022. If anyone has questions as it pertains to this strategy...please leave them below...I will answer them all. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/05Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 2 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this". This morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers and the post-PMI reaction lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be patient. Positional Trading Models: For today's session, models indicate going long on a break above 4055, with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 4037, and going short on a break below 4018, with a 38-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 3026. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/05: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. (iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
DXY will find support above 103.70As the global economy continues to recoil after the US Fed rate increase - watch for the USD/DXY to find support above 103.70 and flag sideways/higher over the next 15+ weeks. I suspect any continued Fed rate increases will put further pressure on global markets/currencies and drive foreign investment in USD assets throughout 2023. Yes, the US economy is contracting - which is exactly what the Fed wants (breaking inflationary trends). But, that does not mean the US economy is CRASHING. What is happening is the strength of the US economy/USD is creating a capital-shift we've not seen since the early 2011~2013 bottom. Foreign investors are rushing away from risk - towards safety, security, & ROI. That means they are seeking the safest, strongest economy on the planet, with the best chance of ROI. I believe that is the US economy (the strongest on the planet) which is currently ON SALE at a 40% to 70% discount. Pay attention.
TVC:DXYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: A Push Lower to Complete then Higher? In the overnight session, SPX Futures drifted lower in what I’m counting as minor wave 2 or b of minor c of larger “a”. The expected spot for this drift lower to complete is between the 4040-4020 area. From there we should trade higher and eventually this week get into the target box for our larger “a” wave top. Currently I would like to see this eventual move higher reconcile in the 4158 area. However, we will see what shape this potential advance has as we approach the target box. I am observing the EOM Dec 4300 ES Calls to short to close out my year end. If this was October or even November, I would be more inclined to take an outright short of the contract. This is a more conservative means to closing out the 2022 books then an outright position. Let’s see what today brings and I’ll update this evening after the close. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
ES as long as 4084-93 holds, it has a good setup for a strongES as long as 4084-93 holds, it has a good setup for a strong down! Tomorrow should produce a buyable bottom for a rally on Tuesday. Full Moon is on the 8th, usually marks top or a bottom. So far its in topping process. Can it correct through time and move higher into EOY, very possible Ideally we see a low mid Dec (my ideal low is at 3750), that would be a perfect setup for a long trade going into EOY and Jan high. That high alone can get above 4200, can be a great ride. Will need to do some homework on my SPX chart and check if we can get that ABC move up into Jan high. One thing is I have a good confidence is that month of Jan will be a very strong selling/red month. So early Jan high will be a perfect short imo
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
SPY Cycle Patterns for Dec 5 thru 9 - A Flat Sideways Melt-upI love the fact that traders are messaging me asking questions regarding my SPY Cycle Patterns. Thank you. I hope all of you are starting to see some value from my research and using it to profit from some of these moves higher. Right now, and probably until next week (Dec 12 of later), the markets will probably slide into a fairly volatile sideways melt-up phase. I'm expecting a 4 to 6%+ volatility range over the next 7+ trading days before some catalyst sends the markets higher. I've listed all the SPY Cycle Patterns for December below. I've highlighted the key days (**) that I believe will create a bias trend in December. The other patterns may still represent upward trending and volatility. 12/1/2022 Flat-Down 12/2/2022 Harami-Inside 12/3/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 12/4/2022 GAP22 Potential ** 12/5/2022 12/6/2022 Top 12/7/2022 Flat-Down 12/8/2022 Break-Away 12/9/2022 Carryover 12/10/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/11/2022 Top/Resistance21 12/12/2022 Consol-210 12/13/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/14/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/15/2022 Breakdown201 12/16/2022 Break-Away ** 12/17/2022 Carryover 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP ** 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/25/2022 Rotation 12/26/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/27/2022 Breakdown201 12/28/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/29/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/30/2022 Top 12/31/2022 Flat-Down
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
How is a forecast a forecast, and not a guess?Since the days of town squares, and town markets...there has always been this intellectual battle between the market sellers and the buyers. One party sets up shop with the intent of making a profit through selling something of true or perceived value to another party who may (or may not) have a perceived value or use for the seller's wares. It is simultaneously the simplest of relationships, and one of the most complex. The attributes that govern such transactions are emotion, education, salesmanship and instinct. The transactional forces itself are so interesting to me...A book could written about it. In fact, an entire industry exists right now on the millions of books, videos and lessons, that have been authored on such an in-depth topic. However, I'm NOT writing today to inform you how best to sell your wares. Nor I am taking time out of my weekend to educate you on how to "one-up" those wiley sellers... when buying. All of the machinations of this transactional relationship have played out countless times, and so much so , that they're now incredibly predictable. I wonder if anything else can be discovered as it pertains to the choreography of the buyer and seller. But when making a prediction on outcomes, is there a process? Is their a discipline to spot success, and or, failure? I believe so. There are many things that happen within our natural world that no one could be criticized for thinking they are random occurrences. The leaf that falls from the tree. Which leaf? Where that leaf falls on the ground. Directly below the tree, or is their a wind that influences it? Is it possible that much of what we observe in the natural world as random, is in fact, predictable? Forecasting the weather with accuracy has approved greatly in the last 20 years alone. Just talk to a natural gas trader...who in my opinion could fill in as a meteorologist anywhere in a local TV market. Why is that? Because to trade natural gas, one must be a part-time weather man. To trade crude oil, one must become a geopolitical connoisseur. There are all kinds of attributes a specialized trader must acquire given the market of their specialty. However, one art is forgotten. Less appreciated. Because our society is conditioned to be impatient...given no value. The art of observation... and might I add my own suffix...without action. The art of observation, without action. This practice allows for education, allows for experience, allows for confirmation without consequences. In and around 1940-1941, RN Elliott stated that the Dow (which just 11 years earlier lost 70% of it's value) was about to embark on a bull market rally that would last 70 years. Having endured the great depression, on the cusp of the USA entering WWII with the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese...can you imagine how that market forecast was received? Below...please find the aftermath of his ridiculous claim. During the time his proclamations was made, no one had the benefit of hindsight. Suffice to say he was ridiculed. Now in retrospect, he was conservative in his forecast. Because the 2009-2010 area of the SPX would have been where he concluded this rally would end...and the market was higher by almost 800% from 2009-2022. Therefore, with hindsight, no one would NOW argue his guess was in fact, a forecast. A forecast based on a process, steeped in discipline. I'll conclude with the main chart above and simply say. I too am making a proclamation. I am now authoring a forecast...I too (Like Elliott then) believe I have a process and a discipline to back my statement...but you have to decide. The above chart represents within the next 3-6 years PLANET EARTH COULD LOSE HALF ITS GLOBAL NET WORTH...OR MORE. I will concede it's human nature to ridicule what is not understood. As a species we have a long documented history of such behavior. It is also precisely why my success is based on you, the reader, and your predictable failure to not consider the above, a reality. To dismiss this proclamation. Having said all the above, can I request you do one thing that will not require much effort? Snip this chart and save it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
23
Weekend Update: Today was a Big Nothing BurgerToday played out pretty much as forecasted Thursday evening in my Thought Experiment post. However, in my weekend update I want to discuss what happens next. If you have followed my analysis you know I am tracking a 3-way move into the 4300-4600 area to complete sometime in the first half of 2023. We are about 30% complete in the fulfillment of that pattern. This portion of the move is just the "a" wave, with b and c to come to complete a larger "b" wave. From that "b" wave, I am expecting a brutal decline that would exceed 1,000 points (see below) SHORT TERM: I am expecting price to come back into the 4020-4040 area...then over the course of the next week or so, make a direct challenge to the 4158-4175 area. If my analysis plays out as forecasted I plan to establish a large short ES position, but have decided to do so via short OOM ES call options. I am hoping to generate $40-$50k in premium so the position size will be 20-25 contracts. I am wanting to juice my 2022 P&L. 2023 will feel largely bullish until the second half and more specifically end of 3rd quarter till year end. This is where the decline will become brutal (see above). Please do not ask me to expand on what the event will be...I am an analyst...not a palm reader. Please do not confuse the two. I don't know. If your concern is I am pulling these forecasts out of my backside...I would encourage you to search the 4 Thought Experiments I have conducted with my followers. ANyone can get 1 right, maybe 2...So far I'm 4 for 4. So, I can speculate much like you would do...suffice to say...what we experience next year will pale in comparison to what awaits us down the road in 2025-26. But I do not want to get too ahead of myself. I want to keep my focus on closing out my December and my 2022 on a high energy note. I have time to devise a 2023 strategy. The last thing I want to mention is at this juncture I suspect have earned the right to say to my followers...Take a look at the above daily chart.... (Thats a 2-Year Thought Experiment far in advance) ....PLEASE GET PREPARED FOR WHAT IS TO COME. I promise you it will be uncomfortable. I'm giving you a 2 year head start on the rest of the world. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
Special Update: Is it too early to claim victory?...AGAIN.In last night's thought experiment I wrote: "So here it is: Tonight in the overnights we will continue to meander but with a slight downward bias. Post 7am we will be south of 4050 in the ES. Jobs Friday comes along at 830am tomorrow morning...and a possible spike down to 4005-4037 and then slowly by 1030am EST...the Upside starts. We end the day flat, slightly down or slightly GREEN on the day. Tomorrow ends up being a big nothing burger." We still have the entire day to go....but I'll let my followers make the call. PS: I posted on the Thought Experiment that I closed my short 3 ES contracts at 4092.75 at 4012 for 80.75 points within 24 hours for $12,000 in profits. Here's hoping for a great December in the markets. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
13
Special Update: Thought Experiment for Jobs FridayI can't quite figure out if my followers really like me...or they are eager to hang me out to dry. An analyst is only as good as their forecasts...To forecast micro machinations in the largest index on planet Earth...some would say is a kin to throwing darts, rolling the bones, playing the slots. I, on the other hand, am a proponent of Elliott Wave Theory. I may be in fact, one of the most aggressive proponents of this form of analysis. I have tried (and unfortunately failed) forecasting my wife's response to certain hot button topics, using EWT. Suffice to say....I didn't work...and I was ushered into the dog house soon afterwards. But if I have one passion, one goal above most others, I want to pass along my passion for what I think is the single greatest forecasting tool for traders when trading for profit. I haven't met in person a single one of my followers here on tradingview.com...but that doesn't mean I do not care about those faceless individuals. I am committed to you guys...and after January 3rd...I hope our relationship can grow to the next level. But when you lay down a challenge, and it's a big one, and the followers come through (not exactly but close enough) ....well, you have to produce. You have to stick your neck out. You have to risk it all...because it's the right thing to do. Let's rehash. A Thought Experiment as defined by the Google Machine as simply..."an experiment carried out only in the imagination." It's like asking a person to imagine to the outcome if they were to do this or that, or not do this or that. It's imaginative. So here it is: Tonight in the overnights we will continue to meander but with a slight downward bias. Post 7am we will be south of 4050 in the ES. Jobs Friday comes along at 830am tomorrow morning...and a possible spike down to 4005-4037 and then slowly by 1030am EST...the Upside starts. We end the day flat, slightly down or slightly GREEN on the day. Tomorrow ends up being a big nothing burger. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
13
Evening Update: The ES is following the ideal path but......the all my DM's I received today are about me posting a "thought experiment" for Jobs Friday. My followers are high maintenance...lol. So...once again...if I'm gonna put myself out there for potential public ridicule with forecasting such a short term move in the US stock markets...I need my followers to do some work and put themselves on the line as well. IF MY FOLLOWERS CAN DRUM UP 50 RESPONSES TO THIS ES POST THAT SAYS SIMPLY..."DO IT CHRIS"...then I will no choice but to do a thought experiment for Jobs Friday. If you guys can put in the work...You will force my hand and I will post precisely what will happen before, during and after the jobs report hits the wires. PS: But no cheating guys...LOL. Last time we had people trying to sign up for multiple profiles on Trading View to post their response. IF YOU CAN GET ME 50 RESPONSES SAYING "DO IT CHRIS"...I WILL HAVE NO CHOICE. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
25
Morning Update: Now things get Interesting Yesterday’s morning update, Entitled, ”Are we about to get Clarity?” I outlined in the chart we had to hold the trend line support for this larger LD I’m tracking, and not only did we hold right where price should’ve, we rocketed higher in what SHOULD BE the a-wave of 5 of larger “a”. I say SHOULD BE, because price can be sneaky. I am expecting a 3-wave move into my target box. We have that. If price fails to get above 4096, this could be the end of this pattern. Some of the most common mistakes Elliotitions make, is waiting for ideal patterns to form. I too, am prone to do this...but in the real world of trading, text book a-b-c's and 5-wave patterns do not always play out cleanly. Because of that possibility I have opened up an initial short position at 4092.75 of 3 ES contracts. However, it is my expectation we will breach 4096 today for a micro 5 up for the completion of our "a" wave, and then come down in a corrective looking decline for our “b” of 5, only to go higher one more time and tag 4158 but should be no higher than 4175. At no time, should price consolidate, meander and break this upward trend channel it has been in since 3502. If that does occur, this will be a sign this move higher is over. As of now with a 4096 high, I am expecting that price will come down into the 3799 area, and possibly as low as 3629 area for our target area for our larger “b” wave bottom. With the possibility of such a decline, you can see why I am giving this trade a stop 70 points higher initially. Currently with my stop so high, I'M RISKING $1 TO MAKE $5. 1:5 RR. Here’s my plan. Since this is probably my last trade of size this year. My stop currently is 4165. However, if price does correctively decline into the area I've outlined above in the micro chart, and the decline is clearly corrective, I will close my short for the profits on the table, and restrike higher anticipating that c of 5 will tag the 4158 area. If this decline is clearly impulsive and for any reason trades below 3975...then I will stick with only 3 contracts being short, anticipating I'll close around the 3799 area. First things first: 1. Lets trade above 4096 TODAY 2. Lets decline correctively into the mid 4,000 region over the course of the next several days 3. Lets rally back above the "a" wave of 5 high that we should strike today 4. Lets tag 4158 sometime next week or soon afterwards. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
10
Spx wedge break overnightThey broke over the wedge on futures, so I expect a retest and then higher. With Powell speaking today, a sudden spike down could occur but I still think the 18ma weekly and daily at about 3920-3900 would hold the price as support - no guarantees though. There's a gap on futures at 4020 which should get filled soon, from there it's possible we have ANOTHER move down to complete a triangle or we just get that higher wave 5 over with. These events are hard to anticipate, so please be careful. I'll be away from my desk today, good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by the_sunship
Evening Update: I am wanting to build a Large Short PositionToday, I finally got my OMH in the ES. We are in the target box, so I decided to open my first tranche of ES contracts on the short side. 11.30.22 -3 ES Short at 4092.75 Do I think this is the high? Probably not. Please note...I didn't say definitely not ...As you will know from my analysis I am forecasting a 3 wave move that could honestly challenge 4158-4175 area. But I do think this first portion of the move...the "a" wave is completing now. If you have followed me for more than a month you'll know I'll have a stop in place shortly. But I cannot rule out that what is occurring right now...is the entirety of the move. Several days I alluded to the fact that this trade may be the last trade of 2022 for me. I have about 22 trading days left to get my annual P&L as high as I can without taking undue risk. That's why reading my posts on the ES have probably been boring for the last week and half. JUST WAITING...AND WAITING. But you guys who follow me know...price has to come to me....not the other way around. So, waiting is my middle name. But only now has the futures index presented me with what I have been waiting for. So my goal is establish a 20 contract position. I have 17 left. In my analysis the worst this position can go against me is 4175. That's 80 points away. I hope to build my position within the context of my initial entry at 4092.75 and 4175. Once we begin our "b" wave decline I am looking for 3850 MINIMUM and more likely the low 3700's. that's over 240-390 points of downside from right here. So it is here where my focus becomes heightened. It is here where my analysis has to be spot on... IT IS HERE WHERE I MAKE MY 2022 P&L. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8
Decisions must be made or repeat of past trendAt this area is where we have decided multiple times for the long term outlook of being bullish or extremely bearish. The last 3 times it created the "grey box" after seeing a supply rejection area (orange box), it made a huge move down to test the lows. Now it is back to that major supply area and if it repeats history like the past 2 grey box retests, you can expect a move down. If it blows past the grey box, i would be on a bullish side outlook with buying the dips at past demand areas or prior resistances. Based on extremely recent news this might breach the grey box but it is still worth looking at with a more lenient stop loss for shorting if you are looking to enter to the downside.
AMEX:SPY
by vietuser619