"Joe's earning season preview" EP03 --V, BA, FB, GOOG, AMZN! It's the 3rd week and maybe start to feel a little bit improvement in my English speaking lol.
We got the following important names that I mentioned in this episode:
Mon: HAL, AMTD
Tue: BIIB, CMG, KO, V
Wed: T, BA, CAT, FB, PYPL
Thur: GOOG, AMZN (no time for MMM, INTC and SBUX )
Fri: MCD
So many want to talk about but I only got 20 minute in this video, hope everyone a great trading week yo!
Let's see how they go!
BA
S&P Failed Breakout of Trading RangeIn a previous post I talked about this being a risky time to buy for a long term investment in the S&P , Emini, SPY , or MES . Despite what the media may want you to believe - this market is no longer in a strong bull trend. If it was, prices would break out strongly above previous highs. But what is happening instead? Prices go mostly sideways to down, signalling bull profit taking.
This is because the strong bulls bought lower; they know what is happening. They do not want to buy high because the risk is too large and the probability is too low. This is also where strong bears start looking to sell and will scale in higher if they need to. They understand the probability is in their favor. What happens when both strong bulls and strong bears sell? Well, there is only one direction for the market to go..
The bulls who bought the all time high (last weeks close) are currently trapped. The bulls who bought the breakout on July 12th are also trapped on the daily chart . This is very similar to the Jan 22, and Sep 17 bull closes. Look and see what happened next. Sharp selloffs as the bulls exit in a panic. It took months for prices to get back to a level where they could get out at break even, and they had to sit through a long enduring pullback in order to avoid a loss. Furthermore they risked money to essentially break even, which is extremely dangerous. This is what is known as the "thank you god price." Where those bulls are thankful just to get out without a significant loss.
If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a bear setup for a wedge reversal and failed bull breakout of a trading range. If it fails, and there is another new all time high, the bears will likely try for a second entry in the coming weeks. In either case, the bulls only have a 40% chance of a strong bull rally and measured move up based on the trading range. The bears have a 60% chance of two legs sideways to down and a test of the middle of the current trading range, or the bottom of the trading range around 2400.
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See more at my website on how to learn to identify probabilities, create an edge, and develop your traders mentality.
Airlines price targets - non-MAX operators BULL** Credit Suisse says non-MAX operators such as Delta Air Lines, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group to benefit most from reduced supply levels in the form of higher load factors and fares
** LUV and AAL combined have the highest exposure to MAX fleet in U.S.
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Price targets / analysts:
CS downgrades American Airlines Group Inc to "underperform" form "neutral", cuts PT to $30 from $32, citing extended grounding's of MAX jets and ongoing mechanics labor dispute
Cuts PT for Southwest Airlines Co to $51 from $53, while also lowering 2019 EPS estimate to $4.07 from $4.45 due to the airline's inability to capitalize on market demand
Upgrades JBLU to "neutral" from "underperform", raises PT to $19 from $16 due to strong seasonal leisure demand and continued execution of cost and revenue initiatives
Raises PT for United Airlines Holdings Inc to $113 from $111 despite its smaller MAX exposure compared to LUV and AAL
BA - Boeing Long Term RecoveryBA proved time and time again that they are a strong company. Sure there could be some problems with certain segments but overall very few areas of the market can you find this quality of intrinsic value & dividend - Equities at least for this posts sake, IMO.
Clear break of the downward range I've been outlining in recent posts - RSI & MACD need to cool off a bit but today's move also had some recovery from the weeks prior - so pretty expected outcome with todays media coverage also considered.
It's never an easy road to recovering back to ATH but Boeing has potential to make explosive moves in the Short to Near term - assuming media events & a little luck comes our way. 737MAX Clearance coming closer and closer & add 200 more planes to the sales list after today. All good things.
Always long with BA - GLTA
Beautiful BA Price movementBoeing recorded new orders and with their push to "re brand" the 737 Max (Perhaps not a name change) but helping the public gain trust in BA is a great step in the right direction. Industry continues to expand and BA still has BILLIONS in PO and business in its pipeline.
BA will be fine LT, Join in on the discount.
Anticipating move this week w/ Paris air show media Just a gut feeling with some techniques thrown in there. Test of our MAs coming and interesting movement today - but we are near the top of my resistance so if something meaningful happens to drive us to the lower support - will look to add here and there.
PT1: $370
Looking to add at $320-$330 if we get there, Long term BA will be fine.
GLTA
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Boeing Co (BA)(NYSE) Buy $378.50 >>> $414.01 (Good News)Boeing’s Earnings Report
This morning, Boeing management reported its quarter and investors sold Boeing’s stock down on the headline … at first. As of this writing, BA is back in the green to the tune of 1%. And therein is the opportunity.
This is a stock that has already suffered all the consequences it can suffer from its 737 Max incident, so now the upside potential makes owning BA shares the right thing to do.
Looking over Boeing’s earnings report , the metrics were fine, but the most important parts were that management pulled guidance for the year until a later date when they have more information from the authorities about the schedule for its 737 Max planes. BA also paused its share repurchase program, so that it can preserve its operating $2.8 billion cash flow (which is excellent, by the way). This is down 10% from last year’s but within reason considering the operational debacle BA has had to deal with.
Bottom Line on Boeing Stock
In the end, owning BA shares from these levels will be a winning investment. Short term, there are levels to trade for those who prefer to be active in Boeing stock. There is an open gap to $392 per share. Above $400, Boeing stock could spur a $30 rally to close the gap that is even higher. Conversely, below $360, BA would be in danger of testing $320. The right thing to do here is to hold BA stock for the months to come. The upside opportunity far outweighs the downside risk.
NYSE:BA
Boeing Co
Stock - NYSE (USA)
Profit:Risk = 2:1
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Buy = $378.50
Take Profit = $414.01
Stop Loss = $361.00
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Take Profit = +9.38%
Stop Loss = -4.62%
PLANET SHORTS. Jk. Be patient... we may have another leg upI'm showing this chart in this fashion for a few reasons. Let's take a look at the EW count. We have just completed wave 3 of 3 of the largest count. Currently going into wave 4 of 3 and should wrap this up in the next couple days. The EW count suggesting that we still have another leg up is justified by the 4 overlaying indicators here- let's take a look.
RSI: yes we bounced off the divergence of the daily, but we have a ways to go before reaching a critical limit suggested by the supporting RSI. The EW count suggests we can continue to be extended. We took quite a hit on the RSI when we fell ~3% last week, leaving room to continue the upward price action.
MACD- tapering off but still bullish.
ADX- Green is above the red, still bullish.
ICC - falling out of the sell zone, but this chart does not have an extensive history so I wouldnt trust this indicator as much. What we can deduce from this is that we are heading toward the neutral zone. This should deter us from any impulsive selling.
Fib time zones- the next wave lines up well if you count the 1 to the 2. WE AREN'T THERE YET.
Ultimately, if you believe the EW count, and interpret that the indicators are not suggesting any impulsive selling, then you should wait to short this. Major indexes suggest a small pullback is coming. This may come right before earnings season (early this week), and allow for a setup to go long for wave 5's.
See my long term chart for what the heck is still to come. GOOD LUCK.